BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Brad Panavich isn't sold yet- Blocking is great but it does t always bring cold, some time it’s a ridge. A pattern to watch for sure but it’s a 50/50 kinda of thing of where the trough and ridge set up. To be fair, I think Brad is stronger in the mid range(5-10). I prefer Webber, DT and Allan for LR. Just my two cents though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: To be fair, I think Brad is stronger in the mid range(5-10). I prefer Webber, DT and Allan for LR. Just my two cents though. Oh I agree, sometimes his wordage annoys me. He loves to make absolutes and it bites him in the a$% sometimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Looking at some of the operational and para gfs We might have a cool spell here or there. But probably looking at a big push around the 14-16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Oh I agree, sometimes his wordage annoys me. He loves to make absolutes and it bites him in the a$% sometimes. Agree, he will always play it conservative as well. I can’t blame him, so many weenies out there if he evens mentioned a patterns they start with the when, how much for my backyard questions. Btw Happy New Years to my fellow winter weather fans. I appreciate All the insights and thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 We're in a place where only a couple of events define the season .. I think the best is yet to come snow-wise. It's been a looong time coming since we've seen a sustained -NAO sig .. definitely want to roll these dice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Grayman said: Agree, he will always play it conservative as well. I can’t blame him, so many weenies out there if he evens mentioned a patterns they start with the when, how much for my backyard questions. Btw Happy New Years to my fellow winter weather fans. I appreciate All the insights and thoughts. Agreed about weenies. I think he does a great job explaining models and spending a lot of time outside of work to justify his reasoning, even if others disagree. That says a lot alone. Fact of the matter is, in Charlotte and most of NC, the most conservative and/or pessimistic person would still be right more often than not. Brad and Matthew East are the best two mainstream Mets for NC hands down. And Happy New Year to everyone as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, Wow said: We're in a place where only a couple of events define the season .. I think the best is yet to come snow-wise. It's been a looong time coming since we've seen a sustained -NAO sig .. definitely want to roll these dice Fabulous February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Agreed about weenies. I think he does a great job explaining models and spending a lot of time outside of work to justify his reasoning, even if others disagree. That says a lot alone. Fact of the matter is, in Charlotte and most of NC, the most conservative and/or pessimistic person would still be right more often than not. Brad and Matthew East are the best two mainstream Mets for NC hands down. And Happy New Year to everyone as well!I put Matthew east above most! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Robert (WxSouth) is very good but idk if he is considered mainstream. I do like Chris Justus because I think he loves snow as much as we do 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CustomWX Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 10 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: Have been noticing the Euro forecast is ever so slightly trying to pull this MJO into phase 1 over the last 5 or so days.Even better look if that happened so things still on schedule. Carry on. Accord to Eric Webb’s MJO research, we do not want to MJO to go to phase one. It’s our least snowiest phase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Pattern better hurry up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Pattern better hurry up That map will change many times before verification. Stick with the ensembles for long range forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Pattern better hurry up I wouldn't put a whole lot of faith on an 850 384hr model run even for what you see out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 The King is still the King. The Canadian has made ground on the UKMET. The GFS is still out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I will say the GFS v16 seems to have promise . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 One of the big issues I am seeing on the operational models is the lack of arctic air. Yes the blocking is there but the temps are marginal even for the mountains later in the runs. Unfortunately the other side of the globe has the majority of the cold air.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Eric Webb (Twitter) just posted the 500 mb model trend towards a positive PNA. Pretty interesting. It may not mean much until it gets colder in Canada, but still a cool trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 0Z GFS has a major southside Virginia snowstorm. Not too far of a shift south needed for people north of 40. With the pattern advertised, a south trend is entirely possible. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 0z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 12 hours ago, BullCityWx said: The King is still the King. The Canadian has made ground on the UKMET. The GFS is still out to lunch. Been thinking about this in recent days...regardless if the Euro shows warm and snowless or winter storms, I suspect it will be the better model in this pattern. It's already been better with the stratospheric evolution and should be better with the stratosphere - troposphere coupling. Also, it historically does better with larger global features like high latitude blocking. Note from Simon Lee on Twitter: "GEFS & CFSv2 have 64 vertical levels, while ECMWF's ensemble has 91 and more of those are in the stratosphere (38 above 100 hPa vs. 24 in CFS). So, I anticipate ECMWF is on the right lines, as models with greater vertical resolution perform better" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 16 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: 0Z GFS has a major southside Virginia snowstorm. Not too far of a shift south needed for people north of 40. With the pattern advertised, a south trend is entirely possible. 8 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: 0z CMC Going into mid-Jan, there's a 'big battle' going on between the developing blocking in the North Atlantic bullying the pattern and shifting the entire height pattern south (you especially saw that in days 8-10 on the 12z Euro)...going up against a Pacific pattern that contains a strong zonal jet with low anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 28 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: 0Z GFS has a major southside Virginia snowstorm. Not too far of a shift south needed for people north of 40. With the pattern advertised, a south trend is entirely possible. A foot + for mby taken verbatim... CMC has about 5-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 0z GFSSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 11 hours ago, BullCityWx said: I will say the GFS v16 seems to have promise . Agree. Just comparing tonight's runs between the new GFS v16 (1st image) and the current GFS (2nd image), look at how the current GFS just drops the North Atlantic blocking by hr204 while the new GFS v16 maintains it...think the current GFS is bunk there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, griteater said: Agree. Just comparing tonight's runs between the new GFS v16 (1st image) and the current GFS (2nd image), look at how the current GFS just drops the North Atlantic blocking by hr204 while the new GFS v16 maintains it...think the current GFS is bunk there Let's hope so because it looks terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 I like what I am seeing for Friday/Saturday here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 0Z Euro keeps the snow confined to the mountains, 0z GFS and 6z GFS and 0z CMC all have moderate-major snows for southern VA/Northern NC , taken verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 29 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0Z Euro keeps the snow confined to the mountains, 0z GFS and 6z GFS and 0z CMC all have moderate-major snows for southern VA/Northern NC , taken verbatim No cold air source. No threat outside of mountains for significant accumulation imo. Verbatim models showing snow only in heaviest returns. Upper levels decent but rate driven snow this far out is just something to cut out the boredom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: No cold air source. No threat outside of mountains for significant accumulation imo. Verbatim models showing snow only in heaviest returns. Upper levels decent but rate driven snow this far out is just something to cut out the boredom I understand the skepticism. However, I would not dismiss this one yet. It will be interesting to see the thermals once the higher resolution models come into range. Until then, I will be watching the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: No cold air source. No threat outside of mountains for significant accumulation imo. Verbatim models showing snow only in heaviest returns. Upper levels decent but rate driven snow this far out is just something to cut out the boredom It would largely depend on the ULL dynamics and track for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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