Jwisephoto Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Never seen a storm come back within 144 hours before. Christmas 2010 storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 As some have said, all major players are still on the field. The trends today haven’t been great but we’re not talking about a GL cutter either. Difference in a couple hundred miles means a heck of a storm or nada for most on this board and we’re more than 5 days out. The fact everything is still showing a storm is great. Imo nothing substantial has changed since yesterday which is good at this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Jwisephoto said: Christmas 2010 storm. Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: As some have said, all major players are still on the field. The trends today haven’t been great but we’re not talking about a GL cutter either. Difference in a couple hundred miles means a heck of a storm or nada for most on this board and we’re more than 5 days out. The fact everything is still showing a storm is great. Imo nothing substantial has changed since yesterday which is good at this range Nailed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This will be the storm to remember as an epic event for NC and SC. I still believe this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, BullCityWx said: We’re still 144 hours out. Literally every event I can ever remember has not stayed static for that long of a period of time. Only one I can remember lurking around for was Feb 14 That thing seemed to Lock in That Sat AM then Stayed locked in all the way up until Gametime that Weds/Thursday but that was a Rare one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, PantherJustin said: Only one I can remember lurking around for was Feb 14 That thing seemed to Lock in That Sat AM then Stayed locked in all the way up until Gametime that Weds/Thursday but that was a Rare one December 2018 was locked in for a long time. Only questions were on the immediate transition zone but overall it was extremely well modeled 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 hours ago, griteater said: I have a hard time believing that the GFS is dead right and the Euro/UKMet are wrong. Maybe you take a blend. Either way, it’s still no better than a ‘maybe it could work out’ for parts of our forum It has happened before and lately the atmosphere has been wild. I think if anyone in our forum it would be LYH then to the mid atl forum, towards Fredericksburg and up to Winchester, VA. Ill give it some more time but Im losing faith in this storm and knowing the trends doesnt favor us all that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 What was that about the GFS? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: What was that about the GFS? Saw that the 18z EPS looked good.... man , would be nice to see the models converge on something big.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I wouldn’t let that piece of shit GFS get you too down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I wouldn’t let that piece of shit GFS get you too down. I shouldn’t let the worst scoring global get me down? Are we sure about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On the 18z EPS, does most of that fall before the 850 line swings down, or does it fall as snow? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: I wouldn’t let that piece of shit GFS get you too down. To quote Neil Young, don't let it bring you down. It's only castles burning. Hoping this suite brings a good trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 28 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: To quote Neil Young, don't let it bring you down. It's only castles burning. Hoping this suite brings a good trend. "Hope Neil Young will Remember ,a Southern Man dont need him around anyhow." Sorry ,couldnt resist,Thanks to Skinnerd! Wx wise we need the ns vort to work with us and come south tonight or get out of the way like 0z gfs last night so Hp and confluence in NE can get us some refrigerated air down here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looking like 0z gfs def wants to dig more with the s/w into Texas. Progression also faster and better moisture advection and return out to 108. Def looking like it will be amped. Lol driving rain storm for the entire forum as the storm cuts way to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Looking like 0z gfs def wants to dig more with the s/w into Texas. Progression also faster and better moisture advection and return out to 108. Def looking like it will be amped. Lol driving rain storm for the entire forum as the storm cuts way to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Makes no sense at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 It’s over boys . I tapped out 2 days ago. Congrats Penn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ghicks said: Makes no sense at all GFS notorious in plowing LP’s and moving stout high pressure out of the way. Although plausible unlikely in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Not too bad here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ghicks said: Makes no sense at all A met can chime in and tell me I’m wrong. If you take the surface map at face value I suppose it is possible for the LP to undercut that high, as its positioning is a little to the west but generally speaking cold dense air is very hard to move or dislodge. 1028-1030HP yea maybe 1042HP another story in my book. Would be easier for me to score a coup up this way but would need some help for most of the forum overall. If I had to take a guess do or die I’d say at this stage primary would decay and die out sooner than what GFS depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GFS just dropped a 150 mile shift south on us. I know that the *end result* isn't satisfying but this wasn't a disaster. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: GFS just dropped a 150 mile shift south on us. I know that the *end result* isn't satisfying but this wasn't a disaster. I def like your logics and reasonings behind this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: I def like your logics and reasonings behind this! And to answer your question, you're right, low pressures are generally going to divert around high pressures, and usually CAD drives our wonky miller B transfers to off the coast where cyclogenesis is more favorable. The issue is that the flank of the high on our side has been eroded over the last few runs, really weakening our CAD and nullifying that effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I def like your logics and reasonings behind this! Buddy you just got plastered on the gfs clown. All VA. I remember that vibe last night at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Ole Canadian says hold my beer boys it ain’t Over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 My old stomping grounds in Front Royal gets over 2 feet and DC gets smoked too on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: And to answer your question, you're right, low pressures are generally going to divert around high pressures, and usually CAD drives our wonky miller B transfers to off the coast where cyclogenesis is more favorable. The issue is that the flank of the high on our side has been eroded over the last few runs, really weakening our CAD and nullifying that effect. 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Buddy you just got plastered on the gfs clown. All VA. I remember that vibe last night at this time. To be honest guys some of our big doozies living here now since 2012 have been the way we get these primaries to get close and then swing directly underneath us so we get the dynamics of that low still plus the developing ccb from the secondary taking over. I’m not gonna get so invested to where I get let down because that has become more of a reality here than not last couple winters. With that said CMC is a mauling in my book for north of I-40 and looks much more realistic with the primary. Gonna be a battle next couple days. @BornAgain13 where you at?! CMC will make you happy for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Don't worry the Euro will come in with sprinkles in an hour and a half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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