ILMRoss Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I actually didn't mind the look on the Euro. I thought the ambient synoptic 'look' was fine enough, and you can chalk the storm underperformance to the strength of our shortwave. It appeared "limp" out the gate in California compared to other models and I think that set the tone for the rest of the run. I didn't think this was a fantastic model suite, but by no means are we out of the picture. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 41 minutes ago, Grayman said: Wishing you guys a look of luck. The 00 Gfs got this weenie excited but when you look at a combo of all the models right now I’m just too far south. N NC and S va look good but minor swings will be big either way. Go south young man It’s still 5 days out lol At this point imo I’m just happy the forum is even active. I just enjoy the prospect of having a reason to lurk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I think one of the biggest takeaways from today’s guidance is that a more progressive solution (euro) will not work south of Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 59 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I actually didn't mind the look on the Euro. I thought the ambient synoptic 'look' was fine enough, and you can chalk the storm underperformance to the strength of our shortwave. It appeared "limp" out the gate in California compared to other models and I think that set the tone for the rest of the run. I didn't think this was a fantastic model suite, but by no means are we out of the picture. Nice insight ILMRoss. I feel that we still have a good shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GFS is Dr Yes this year, therefore I’m running and taking it based on performance over Euro last several months here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 It seems at 500mb, the ens support the op, so I would guess there are a few outliers that have a more GFS-like solution, while the majority are weak with hardly any snow for anyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z GFS isn’t looking so good for us southeast folks. Too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Timing wayyyyy faster too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 0Z for 12z Thursday Vs 18z for same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Timing is killing these runs. Hope to see a slower solution on the 18z. Holding hope in North Meck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 hmm pretty decent back end snow for Hampton Roads as the low wraps up and departs off the coast. I would definitely take that and run with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said: Timing is killing these runs. Hope to see a slower solution on the 18z. Holding hope in North Meck. You talking 12 or 18z . 18z not good NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Well model trends aren't to well today... we really lost the GFS at 18z , to warm and further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 18z Gfs way north. Argh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 If we’re seeing this trend Monday, then I’ll get nervous. I’ll expect swings all weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I wouldn't get too excited. Not yet. Need some changes. Very rarely a Miller A b produces, especially this far south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 27 minutes ago, Grayman said: You talking 12 or 18z . 18z not good NC Was hoping for the 18z to produce. Hadn't viewed it before posting. Arggh the 18z was a near complete miss for NC. Let's see if we get a windshield wiper effect later tonight. Ingredients are there. All about timing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Well, that was fun while it lasted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I hope Im wrong but the north trend that usually see is def going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 40 minutes ago, FLweather said: I wouldn't get too excited. Not yet. Need some changes. Very rarely a Miller A b produces, especially this far south. Who would be excited right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Avdave said: I hope Im wrong but the north trend that usually see is def going on. I have a hard time believing that the GFS is dead right and the Euro/UKMet are wrong. Maybe you take a blend. Either way, it’s still no better than a ‘maybe it could work out’ for parts of our forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Who would be excited right now? Exactly what I was thinking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Charlotte gets LUCKY A bit of hope for us CLT area weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Congrats Cumberland MD lol imo this is a Morgantown- Cumberland -Harrisburg PA storm assuming normal NW trends continue .... I’m not even a fan of where Blacksburg/Roanoke are sitting but that’s just me still early Maybe throw in Hagerstown too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, griteater said: I have a hard time believing that the GFS is dead right and the Euro/UKMet are wrong. Maybe you take a blend. Either way, it’s still no better than a ‘maybe it could work out’ for parts of our forum This. Not too high and not too low with this hobby in the mid range or you’ll burn out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 We’re still 144 hours out. Literally every event I can ever remember has not stayed static for that long of a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 We'll know in 24hrs whether gfs is on to something here or is an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 This energy isn’t even over land yet so although it doesn’t look great right now it can still change. I mean look at how well the models did with the last system insert sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 And just like that hope vanishes again. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, eyewall said: And just like that hope vanishes again. Never seen a storm come back within 144 hours before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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