kvegas-wx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Still far out as most have noted, but the system timing at present is overnight Wednesday. Just one more check mark in favor of accumulations if this pans out. These are some great looking ducks, and they happen to be on a pond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: 6z EPS looks like it would be a solid hit for northern NC points north... Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 22 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Still far out as most have noted, but the system timing at present is overnight Wednesday. Just one more check mark in favor of accumulations if this pans out. These are some great looking ducks, and they happen to be on a pond. Every little bit helps in marginal temperature setups. On the flip side, the system overall is coming in a little quicker on the modeling. A little slower would be better to get more of the damming high and more low level cold air in place on the front side of the storm. As currently modeled, it's another one of these mix or rain to snow type setups for many east of the mtns as the lowest levels are the last to cool (this would be the 3rd straight storm like that if it goes down that way - the one earlier this winter, and the one in Feb last winter). On a positive note, there has been some trending toward more western ridging and a more southerly track of the upper wave and associated sfc lows. That has to continue in order to even keep us in the game here. Long way out as you mention. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, griteater said: Every little bit helps in marginal temperature setups. On the flip side, the system overall is coming in a little quicker on the modeling. A little slower would be better to get more of the damming high and more low level cold air in place on the front side of the storm. As currently modeled, it's another one of these mix or rain to snow type setups for many east of the mtns as the lowest levels are the last to cool (this would be the 3rd straight storm like that if it goes down that way - the one earlier this winter, and the one in Feb last winter). On a positive note, there has been some trending toward more western ridging and a more southerly track of the upper wave and associated sfc lows. That has to continue in order to even keep us in the game here. Long way out as you mention. A sped up system is not in our favor here. It’s January, I would take a daytime hit if that means the HP has time to get in place and deep cold air has time to arrive. Otherwise we’d burn through half the previous before snow could accumulate. Can’t get into specifics yet but the quicker progression is not a solid trend when we are banking on that strong Canadian hp to set up shop and begin to filter in cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 14 minutes ago, griteater said: Every little bit helps in marginal temperature setups. On the flip side, the system overall is coming in a little quicker on the modeling. A little slower would be better to get more of the damming high and more low level cold air in place on the front side of the storm. As currently modeled, it's another one of these mix or rain to snow type setups for many east of the mtns as the lowest levels are the last to cool (this would be the 3rd straight storm like that if it goes down that way - the one earlier this winter, and the one in Feb last winter). On a positive note, there has been some trending toward more western ridging and a more southerly track of the upper wave and associated sfc lows. That has to continue in order to even keep us in the game here. Long way out as you mention. Yeah, exactly. That's why I think eastern NC may be in a better spot for this one. When the low bombs off the coast the colder air has time to move in and they get snow. For us in the western/central NC the storm is going to take too long to cool off and switch over. My hope is it slows down. With marginal temps, I don't trust clown maps at all. What does it take to start off as frozen and stay frozen? Last February was horrible in itself as it snowed for hours and hours, but due to warm surface temps, no accumulation. Surface and boundary temps are huge for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 This looks like the best chance we have had this winter for a big storm for NC. At least we have a shot, just have to see if it works out. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, griteater said: On a positive note, there has been some trending toward more western ridging and a more southerly track of the upper wave and associated sfc lows. That has to continue in order to even keep us in the game here. Long way out as you mention. Here is the noted trend on the EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Does look a bit faster on the trend but diving more south. Was in Ok panhandle. Now in se Ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Does look a bit faster on the trend but diving more south. Was in Ok panhandle. Now in in se Ok. In fairness, the Euro/EPS has been trending more toward the GFS/GEFS with the western ridging and h5 wave/vort track over the past 24 hours (the GFS/GEFS are like, "welcome to the party")....but who knows where we go from here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z ICON with a solid Winter Storm for VA, not much for NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 42 minutes ago, griteater said: Here is the noted trend on the EPS That's a really stellar trend from a model we need on our team for this to be a credible threat. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I cant take the icon seriously when it's surface reflection goes from Dothan to the Tri-Cities to Transylvania County to Myrtle Beach. Come on bro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: I cant take the icon seriously when it's surface reflection goes from Dothan to the Tri-Cities to Transylvania County to Myrtle Beach. Come on bro. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z GFS bombs out another big run for southern VA, Northern NC and Eastern VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z GFS KucheraSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I think the SW being slightly more amped out west on these last two gfs runs is what may be trending the system slightly further north than 0z. HP looks to be slightly improved location and overall setup is excellent still. That surface low reflection where it bombs out will obviously make all the difference but this will not be a marginal temp ordeal in the snow area. It will be falling into the 20’s with that cold air source. I think for someone this will be a big dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: I think the SW being slightly more amped out west on these last two gfs runs is what may be trending the system slightly further north than 0z. HP looks to be slightly improved location and overall setup is excellent still. That surface low reflection where it bombs out will obviously make all the difference but this will not be a marginal temp ordeal in the snow area. It will be falling into the 20’s with that cold air source. I think for someone this will be a big dog Yep. Look at that gradient. 2" at the airport, 8" at my house and 12" at TDF in Timberlake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 This was a better run that 06z overall with the storm setup but obviously track ticked north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Devil will be in the details here. Not a bad look of HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Max of 17.1 near South Hill on the RDU metro map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 i live in northern surry county and got the shaft this run, but hey atleast its something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Ghicks said: i live in northern surry county and got the shaft this run, but hey atleast its something to track. you'll end up doing fine i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Cold air just doesn't get here in time for folks in southern Wake (which is always a huge issue)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z CMC is a big hit for southern VA/Central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Kinda hated the look on the GFS, looked warmer on a wholesale level in our area and the ridge out west wasn't as robust. CMC, I thought, was a way better look; colder system, excellent trends from previous run. Just need a better CAD high from that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, ILMRoss said: Kinda hated the look on the GFS, looked warmer on a wholesale level in our area and the ridge out west wasn't as robust. Yep, need more blocking for sure. Feels like this year there either isn't enough blocking or the storm hardly develops at all, to where there isn't even really any legit thread the needle opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 We are still in the timeframe where models are doing big swings back and forth. Haven't seen any consolidation trends yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z CMC much improved from previous 2 runs but still not quite there, especially for NC folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 This is a miller B so be prepared for a dry slot somewhere in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSchew Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Where’s the PARA when you need it?! Statement from NWS/NCEI implies they’ve been doing scheduled maintenance, ending around 2pm today. So maybe we’ll have her back online for happy hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z GEFS looks good up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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