CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 19 hours ago, wncsnow said: It's still generally 5 to 10 degrees above average on non rainy or wedge days. I guess that's an improvement over last year still but we are going to have to wait a while for any snow chances I'll say this..... if the long range pattern comes to fruition, we will be tracking some big dogs in the next couple of weeks. I have not seen a better pattern than what's being forecasted in many years. This is what we have all been waiting on...... 5 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 30 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I'll say this..... if the long range pattern comes to fruition, we will be tracking some big dogs in the next couple of weeks. I have not seen a better pattern than what's being forecasted in many years. This is what we have all been waiting on...... Shouldn't be long and we should start seeing digital snow show up .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I'll say this..... if the long range pattern comes to fruition, we will be tracking some big dogs in the next couple of weeks. I have not seen a better pattern than what's being forecasted in many years. This is what we have all been waiting on...... Yeah, we could have something that rivals the great virga blizzard of 02. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, jburns said: Yeah, we could have something that rivals the great virga blizzard of 02. I had one heck of a good snowstorm in early Jan '02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 40 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I had one heck of a good snowstorm in early Jan '02 I don’t doubt it since I just picked a year out of thin air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 9 hours ago, jburns said: I don’t doubt it since I just picked a year out of thin air. Nearly bullseyed here. She was a beaut Clark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Where’s that Wake county dividing line everyone talks about? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 If you want a really warm day, it looks like Sunday is the last day for any sort of extreme warmth. After Sunday, it looks average at best going to below average week 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 51 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Where’s that Wake county dividing line everyone talks about? TW Here's one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Here's one Why dont I remember that storm? hm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/23/2020 at 3:23 PM, griteater said: A few long range thoughts. I believe early to mid January will be favorable for a winter storm or 2 for the mid-Atlantic and north...and same for all of the east coast including our forum for mid to late January as enhanced convection should begin to move out of Indonesia during the 2nd week of January, improving the pattern over Western Canada / Eastern Alaska. I would say that the chances of a large and widespread winter storm for our forum to be much higher than normal for mid-January to early February. Time will tell, we can revisit down the road. Still good with this. Agree with @CAD_Wedge_NC that chances for a big one are elevated. But it's' going to take a little time. The Pacific pattern is straight awful the first 10 to 12 days of Jan, then it should gradually improve. We have what looks to be a strong -NAO episode coming in 8-10 days. Meanwhile, we have a legit, downwelling SSW (strat warming) on the doorstep - Euro is locked in on Jan 5 which is earlier than I anticipated would happen. In addition, the lower stratosphere is already in a very weakened state. Research from Simon Lee states that the Arctic High regime (-AO / -NAO) is 7 times more likely to occur when the lower stratosphere is in a weakened state, and the SSW will only reinforce the weakness. Thinking we may see something like a heavy blocking period here in early to mid-Jan, then a bit of a relax period at some point, followed by another heavy blocking period. We should see an improving Pacific pattern mid-Jan and after, though suspect it will be variable. Good luck to all 8 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Great job Grit per normal! Next thing will be Telejukie making an appearance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CustomWX Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 4 hours ago, CaryWx said: Nearly bullseyed here. She was a beaut Clark. Here’s the H5 look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 GFS has an event for the mountains around 276 this go around but I will eat my hat if a storm goes from Charleston to Lumberton to Albemarle with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CustomWX Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 I know that Webber has been preaching this for a while, but I’m really not upset with the Pacific. Heck, I’m fine if we keep it as it is the entire year! I took a look back at some of our classic CAD/Miller B storms, and put them into a composite. Those years were Dec 208, Feb 2004, Jan 2002, Jan 1988, Dec 1971, Feb 1969, many of which produced a foot in Charlotte. Definitely some minor adjustments I would like to see, like more of a 50/50 low, but still, relatively close to the current look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 One thing is for sure.. it doesn't look like we will be without a lot of systems with the hyper active Pacific. Someone is going to flood soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Have been noticing the Euro forecast is ever so slightly trying to pull this MJO into phase 1 over the last 5 or so days.Even better look if that happened so things still on schedule. Carry on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Hmmm.. Just one run but this system will be close to a heavy snow for the mountains and foothills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 hours ago, BullCityWx said: GFS has an event for the mountains around 276 this go around but I will eat my hat if a storm goes from Charleston to Lumberton to Albemarle with that setup. Would be more snow than what the model is showing with that setup probably.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Hmmm.. Just one run but this system will be close to a heavy snow for the mountains and foothills Think this might be our "pattern" (winter game) changer coming through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Euro Weeklies trend loop...7-day avg for Jan 14-21...last 6 model runs including today's 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 52 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro Weeklies trend loop...7-day avg for Jan 14-21...last 6 model runs including today's Nice trend . Do you think we maybe can watch something during that timeframe or later into Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 49 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro Weeklies trend loop...7-day avg for Jan 14-21...last 6 model runs including today's Well now. That's absurdly superb as shown. I would probably have a tough time drawing it up any better. Ridging over the pole, aluetian low, +pna over the west, lower heights off the east coast. Deep eastern trough with a baffin bay true block. That would do quite nicely. Hope it shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 33 minutes ago, Grayman said: Nice trend . Do you think we maybe can watch something during that timeframe or later into Jan? Mid Jan and on IMO, yes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 It is looking more and more likely that we are heading towards an interesting start to 2021. Nothing for the Southeast is ever a guarantee and even in the best patterns we could end up in disappointment, but the long range set up is one of the best I’ve ever seen. As Grit and other have mentioned, the west based –NAO is fairly important for us and it seems as if it could be here to stay. The new EPS weeklies have it staying to some degree through early February. It could take some time for arctic air to funnel its way southward in accordance with our block too (probably mid-January if it does). We have been incredibly fixated on mess in the Pacific, which should slowly improve over the next two weeks. It seems like the Pacific jet extension is retracting going into week 2 of Jan which could lead finally lend us to some ridging on the west coast. But the jet does not disappear (but rather slightly pulls back), so I would not expect a sustained –EPO… a manageable pacific with a more neutral/slight negative look to it works too. As hinted on the GEFS and Euro Ens, the large scale pattern begins to retrograde once ridging takes over the pole. This moves the EPO domain west (helping us move more toward a more neutral EPO look) and shifts ridging in Asia which helps stop the Pac Jet influence. As CustomWX mentioned though, we do not need this necessarily to get some good opportunities. By day 8-15 on the Euro Ens, the PV shifted west in the Bering Sea, allowing the incoming pieces of energy to rotate farther west as well which helps pump heights in western Canada in conjugation with the west based –NAO. Lastly, it looks like we finally have some general agreement with the starto warming event as well into the first two weeks of Jan (Euro is still quickest with the reverse). However, do not expect immediate changes with this, as it is common for the synoptic effects to materialize a few weeks after the event. Things looking up from here and I have hope! Happy New Years Everybody! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 19 minutes ago, griteater said: Mid Jan and on IMO, yes Do you know you are telling a weenie there is a chance? Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Alexa, show me a strong storm signal: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Alexa, show me a strong storm signal: Don't post images like that, there could be children looking!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Brad Panavich isn't sold yet- Blocking is great but it does t always bring cold, some time it’s a ridge. A pattern to watch for sure but it’s a 50/50 kinda of thing of where the trough and ridge set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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