SENC Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Various Model Run(s) show My area(s) SENC, getting a dusting & pasteing.. looking back at Historical records.. Seems We get a "decent" pasteing every 3~4 years here, in Jan~Feb, so yeah,, were due.. Wilmington, NC Snowfall Database since 1870 (weather.gov) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Grayman said: I’m with you. I live 60 miles east of you and it would take some work for us. If you live on the hwy 74 corridor we’ve watched this play out many times. I can’t seem to look away though . I'm right at Concord/Harrisburg near 49. It's brutal on this area. Warm nose pretty much ruins significant snows. Sleet storms can be ok I suppose. I can imagine the 74 corridor is even worse huh? Best of luck!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Various Model Run(s) show My area(s) SENC, getting a dusting & pasteing.. looking back at Historical records.. Seems We get a "decent" pasteing every 3~4 years here, in Jan~Feb, so yeah,, were due.. Wilmington, NC Snowfall Database since 1870 (weather.gov)If this is a legit “rapidly deepening bomb off the coast” kinda storm like some models show, the coast (and Wilmington) are totally in play for a little backside action. People sometimes think Jan 2000 was just a Raleigh storm, when in fact it’s been one of the handful of storms that has given ILM 4+ inches (it might be the biggest storm) in the last 30 years. Wilmington can cash in on high octane events... provided this is a high octane event in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, davenc said: I'm right at Concord/Harrisburg near 49. It's brutal on this area. Warm nose pretty much ruins significant snows. Sleet storms can be ok I suppose. I can imagine the 74 corridor is even worse huh? Best of luck!! Man Rockingham is the worst ever. I usually travel 25 miles north to see a flake. I’m Mr Weenie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, Grayman said: Man Rockingham is the worst ever. I usually travel 25 miles north to see a flake. I’m Mr Weenie Greenville NC-Rockingham/Monroe-Columbia Sc is one of the hottest places I’ve ever experienced in the summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, griteater said: Above normal in spring is quite nice actually...just not in summer I didn't realize February and March were full spring months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, griteater said: Above normal in spring is quite nice actually...just not in summer Pretty much classic Nina pattern. Not surprising from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I didn't realize February and March were full spring months Well you make a good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, griteater said: Well you make a good point I'm just putting information out there, they almost always go above average now anyways and can you blame them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: I'm just putting information out there, they almost always go above average now anyways and can you blame them? It’s been rough on the Pacific side this winter. We’ll have to see it to believe something is really going to change there. When I saw your image I was thinking of March and April. If it isn’t going to be cold and wintry in March, above normal is really nice then and in April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, griteater said: It’s been rough on the Pacific side this winter. We’ll have to see it to believe something is really going to change there. When I saw your image I was thinking of March and April. If it isn’t going to be cold and wintry in March, above normal is really nice then and in April Oh I totally agree, that's why in some ways this winter has sucked more than last. It's been much cooler here and generally wet. 7 or 8 nights below 20, compared to 2 or 3 last winter. Not a lot of great days for outdoor activities compared to last winter. This winter we have had 1 winter storm warning and 2 or 3 winter weather advisories and less than one inch of snow. Last winter I think we had a couple winter weather advisories and a couple dustings but that's it. I guess the only reason last winter may grade lower is the winter forecasts we're so bullish last winter and it was a complete fail for the entire east coast generally. This winter was pretty conservative and may be an overachiever for the Mid Atlantic and NE after next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 19 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I didn't realize February and March were full spring months March is a full met spring month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, griteater said: Coming back to this. Correct, the strong high is there north of the Great Lakes with a good damming signature....but the second part of the equation is what you mentioned, that is, the pre-storm air mass from Eastern Canada to Florida just isn't very cold. In the bottom right panel (850mb temps), the blue line across NY State is -10C...we'd like to see that across OH/PA, and we'd like to see -20C just north of NY State (pink line which is up in NW Canada). Also note the +10C is in C GA...so yeah, that's not as cold as we'd like to see it prior to the storm rolling in. The less than optimal Pacific side pattern so far this winter is mostly to blame I'd say for the lack of cold across North America. But again, the placement of surface features (highs/lows) is only part of the equation when it comes to available cold. Yeah, agree the pacific pattern has really put a kabosh on our winter so far. The lack of truly cold air has made it really hard to trust even very good H5 setups. I've found myself up and down on this one as well. Generally I think the middle ground of the UKMET is the way to go. Can't tell how cold it is, but based on the low location it's probably mostly a VA storm but i could be wrong. I just can't get into these storms being so marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: March is a full met spring month I'm aware, yet it's snowier than December for MBY. Always good for fireworks generally. Especially living near the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 hours ago, wncsnow said: NOAA outlook for the next 3 months is pretty bad. Meaningless unless you are a trend watcher. I can make 150% of my annual snowfall in 36 hours just like Dec 2018. I dont need, nor want it to be cold for 3 months. I just need a 36 hour window as a friendly LP system happens to stroll on by..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 0z ICON Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: 0z ICON Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk -would be a good one for many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Central AZ still getting hammered next Tue on the 00z GFS. Too far of a drive for a chase. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 0z GFS with a 1044 High Pressure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 00z seems at tad bit dryer compared to previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Another big run coming in on the GFS , precip is delayed this time compared to 18z but not denied... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, magpiemaniac said: 00z seems at tad bit dryer compared to previous run. Not much, precip was delayed compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Another big run coming in on the GFS , precip is delayed this time compared to 18z but not denied... I think that’s what I was seeing. Delayed instead of dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Eastern NC gets creamed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 0z GFS KucheraSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 00z GFS is definitely a shift south. Don’t tell the northern VA folks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, magpiemaniac said: 00z GFS is definitely a shift south. Don’t tell the northern VA folks. They already know lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: They already know lol I just peaked in there. Ouch. It’s a week away. We could all get blanked. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, magpiemaniac said: I just peaked in there. Ouch. It’s a week away. We could all get blanked. Haha! Exactly, just a matter of looking at the pattern and hopefully get a nice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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