Avdave Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: NORTH SIIIIIDE I wouldnt mind a shift 25 miles south. I really need to use my 4WD to get the gears all lubricated and drive in the snow again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Avdave said: If we could knock it south some you wouldnt have to worry about ice Can you imagine if this happened. 5 inches 15 miles north of me while I’m driving looking for a dusting. Could I start my very own whining thread just to talk to myself. Lol. Glad we have something to watch. Get the Tylenol out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: I’m gonna need this not to be ice for mby Is your location correct? Fountain Inn? We are pretty far south but maybe we get lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Anybody know what the deal is with the PARA GFS? Still stuck at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatriotWeather Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, Avdave said: I wouldnt mind a shift 25 miles south. I really need to use my 4WD to get the gears all lubricated and drive in the snow again I wouldn’t mind a 25 mile shift south either. I really need to see how my lotus does in the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, Avdave said: If we could knock it south some you wouldnt have to worry about ice It would have to come south by a lot 3 minutes ago, Grayman said: Is your location correct? Fountain Inn? We are pretty far south but maybe we get lucky Yep. I’m in Fountain Inn. Verbatim the 18z gfs says mby is 37-38, a dp of 29 with 850’s at +2-3 when the moisture arrives. It will trend colder, but how much and how much colder throughout the column is the question that we wait the answer to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: The 18z GFS looks like December 2018 It’s really close to identical honestly, just shifted north a bit causing differences on the southern fringes and down along the southern blue ridge escarpment. Selfishly would love to see it move just a bit more towards this look, definitely looking like there’s potential for someone to get a big one out of this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Mood swings on this board are in a league of their own. Honestly flipping more than the models are on this system 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 This afternoon, RAH made their first mention of next week’s possible storm: Quote Models then project another shot of Arctic air ahead of yet another southern stream wave racing from the southern US to the OH Valley by Thursday. This would result in another period of CAD and well below normal temperatures, with some small potential for wintry weather based on a little better phasing and placement of high pressure over eastern Canada. In the case of both of next weeks systems, and particularly the late week system, the shortwaves and jet energy of interest are still out over the north Pacific, so confidence is below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Mood swings on this board are in a league of their own. Honestly flipping more than the models are on this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Avdave said: I was just going to say the same thing, that was a good storm here near RDU. That was a fun storm for everybody north and west of Raleigh. I remember sweating the transition line as it wavered back and forth in southern Wake county. Hopefully this next storm trends just a little colder putting more in play. Many model runs from now to "go time". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 26 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: It’s really close to identical honestly, just shifted north a bit causing differences on the southern fringes and down along the southern blue ridge escarpment. Selfishly would love to see it move just a bit more towards this look, definitely looking like there’s potential for someone to get a big one out of this though. This brings up painful memories. Another great shutout event for me. Dang I had forgotten about that nightmare lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 32 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Mood swings on this board are in a league of their own. Honestly flipping more than the models are on this system Raises hand - I'm one of those that is wishy-washy / mood swingy with this one. Some model runs here and there are intriguing for sure, but on the flip side the wave track and sfc high setup to the north could easily far apart with just some slight changes. The Euro run last night was a mini-disaster, but has since improved some. And as @ILMRoss mentioned earlier today, the UKMet today looked pretty good at hr144. Here's the 18z GFS. Nice wave track and nice damming shown (though many need it further south for sure). Still hard to beat the 4-panel ewall images 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Here was the 12z UKMet at hr144 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 NOAA outlook for the next 3 months is pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Still a long way out, but southern Wake already on the edge.....we love to live dangerously. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 18 hours ago, SnowDawg said: I mean is the source cold air just pathetic for peak winter? A 1044 high and a surface low in North Florida on the Para and its still almost all rain in NE GA damming regions. 9 times out of 10 I swear a high that strong puts us in the game in the past. Coming back to this. Correct, the strong high is there north of the Great Lakes with a good damming signature....but the second part of the equation is what you mentioned, that is, the pre-storm air mass from Eastern Canada to Florida just isn't very cold. In the bottom right panel (850mb temps), the blue line across NY State is -10C...we'd like to see that across OH/PA, and we'd like to see -20C just north of NY State (pink line which is up in NW Canada). Also note the +10C is in C GA...so yeah, that's not as cold as we'd like to see it prior to the storm rolling in. The less than optimal Pacific side pattern so far this winter is mostly to blame I'd say for the lack of cold across North America. But again, the placement of surface features (highs/lows) is only part of the equation when it comes to available cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: NOAA outlook for the next 3 months is pretty bad. Above normal in spring is quite nice actually...just not in summer 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, HKY1894 said: Happy hour delivered. The storm bombs out after this as well NE NC gets rocked Oh GOODY!! The rain/snow line literally IS I-85 in CHARLOTTE/CONCORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Avdave said: A closer look at some pron. Tight gradient too for Durham &Orange County. S.Mecklenburg county= .5" N.Meck= 5.5" Literally 20 miles. That's our reality + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 52 minutes ago, griteater said: Here was the 12z UKMet at hr144 I’d take it and roll the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: Keep that generator nearby 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Mood swings on this board are in a league of their own. Honestly flipping more than the models are on this system Until the GFS, Euro, Canadian, and UKmet all show a foot of snow from Atlanta to Charlotte to Raleigh, for 10 straight runs, with no mixing issues, and Cookout makes trays under 5 dollars again like they were when I was in high school, there will be mood swings. It is the nature of tracking winter storms in real time. 5 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, davenc said: S.Mecklenburg county= .5" N.Meck= 5.5" Literally 20 miles. That's our reality + I’m with you. I live 60 miles east of you and it would take some work for us. If you live on the hwy 74 corridor we’ve watched this play out many times. I can’t seem to look away though . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: Until the GFS, Euro, Canadian, and UKmet all show a foot of snow from Atlanta to Charlotte to Raleigh, for 10 straight runs, with no mixing issues, and Cookout makes trays under 5 dollars again like they were when I was in high school, there will be mood swings. It is the nature of tracking winter storms in real time. 5.99 in Durham now. I ain’t made of money, people. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Considering. I'm not too optimistic of the 18z. It's five o'clock sum where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 18z EPS with a nice CAD look for the system next week with plenty of moisture in coming...Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Need the low on 18z GFS about 50 miles more to the SE to get Norfolk/VB in on the Virginia fun haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CustomWX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z EPS with a nice CAD look for the system next week with plenty of moisture in coming... Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk I'm not liking the 18z EPS. That piece of the TPV might end up screwing us over. GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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