NC DataDude Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Any speculation/discussion about the 1/20/2021 12z GFS from hours 168-192 for NC like SPH is alluding to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 15 minutes ago, NC DataDude said: Any speculation/discussion about the 1/20/2021 12z GFS from hours 168-192 for NC like SPH is alluding to? Something to watch.... the Euro has been showing this storm but further north with the snow... good to see the CMC has it today as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 12z EURO looks similar to CMC brings a Winter Storm around the 28th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 All Global’s in agreement 7 days out, what in the world is going on?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: All Global’s in agreement 7 days out, what in the world is going on?! It’s way too early to start a thread, but if and when that time comes, let it be someone with some mojo. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: All Global’s in agreement 7 days out, what in the world is going on?! Yeah and it's not 10 days out!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: All Global’s in agreement 7 days out, what in the world is going on?! Pretty wild . The devil will be in the details . If I lived north of highway 64 and in south Va I would be excited. Hell my town may break the flakeless streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: It’s way too early to start a thread, but if and when that time comes, let it be someone with some mojo. Latest run of Euro jackpots you. I’m down there at the cut off line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Grayman said: Pretty wild . The devil will be in the details . If I lived north of highway 64 and in south Va I would be excited. Hell my town may break the flakeless streak Could end up being a Hwy-1 and US 74 points north and west for NC. At least to included sleet and ice. Depends on how stoutly the CAD is driven south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Euro shows temps in the low 30's for the Triad. A slopfest is better than nothing, but I'd sure like to see temps of upper 20's or lower. TW 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Could end up being a Hwy-1 and US 74 points north and west for NC. At least to included sleet and ice. Depends on how stoutly the CAD is driven south. You will not believe this but I live 2 miles west of hWY 1 and 7 miles north of 74. The cut off line is always close in these storms. Long way to go but at least we have something to watch for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Euro shows temps in the low 30's for the Triad. A slopfest is better than nothing, but I'd sure like to see temps of upper 20's or lower. TW You think the CAD might be underdone at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 That euro map makes it look like 90% of the winter storms in NC... Wake already on the southeast edge....and the NW trend has a ways to go. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 33 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: That euro map makes it look like 90% of the winter storms in NC... Wake already on the southeast edge....and the NW trend has a ways to go. Eh, if this were a traditional Miller A, I'd be inclined to agree, however this storm has a bit differentiating it: 1) WAA driven precip; and 2) Excellent CAD setup. The CAD setups are generally undermodeled, so I would anticipate 2m temps to continue trending downward. I could definitely see a trend toward more sleet/ice in NC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 CAD can always be underdone. However, I think CAD gets way overplayed on this board. I can guarantee you that CAD and associated cold is NOT always undermodeled. A great example was the "ice storm" we had back in December where temps were supposed to be around 31-32 and so many folks talked about how it would trend colder. Well, it never trended colder and we just did reach 32 and got a little bit of ice in the trees and bushed, but that was about it. If anything, the models overstated the CAD and cold, but most were pretty close. I think the thing is, is that we always remember the times where CAD does underperform and it impacts us significantly to the better. The difference with the storm next week is that there should be colder air available. TW 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 18z GFS comes in with another solid Winter Storm for NC/ VA late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 18z Gfs big time fz rain event Southern NC , then turns into a big snow storm for eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Long ways to go but here are the 18z snow and ZR maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 18z GFS Kuchera for late next week's possibility Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS Kuchera for late next week's possibility Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Don’t want to do a in my back yard but the know literally cuts off there. We get raging ice storm. Get the meds ready for me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Track of the surface low looks good. Im still concerned about cold air being in place. At least its under 200 hours out for a change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, Avdave said: Track of the surface low looks good. Im still concerned about cold air being in place. At least its under 200 hours out for a change. The pieces are there if everything can come together, but yeah, it’s no more than a “it could happen” kind of thing in my mind at this point. The setup has to support the wave staying suppressed, while at the same time, enough room to allow it to breathe and produce a storm, especially since it is hot on the tails of the early week storm. The setup to support the damming high looks pretty good, albeit more north than optimal 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 18z GEFS mean would imply a storm that progresses from ZR -> IP -> SN(potentially just IP -> SN) for much of NC. I’m not really worried about the snow maps so much as pattern recognition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, griteater said: The pieces are there if everything can come together, but yeah, it’s no more than a “it could happen” kind of thing in my mind at this point. The setup has to support the wave staying suppressed, while at the same time, enough room to allow it to breathe and produce a storm, especially since it is hot on the tails of the early week storm. The setup to support the damming high looks pretty good, albeit more north than optimal As always and especially down here, we need all the pieces of the puzzle to be in place. At least the track looks good and we have precip to track. Now if the upper air data works with us we may have our first storm for a lot of us. Im too worried about precip types right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Pretty significant increase from 12z on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Makes me almost want to stay up for the 0z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 This threat is a legit one. Could be a big snowstorm for NC and SC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 33 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: This threat is a legit one. Could be a big snowstorm for NC and SC. If you're interested, I take notice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 There’s some steam interaction going on. Always a positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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