BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 18z GFS Para looks very similar to the EURO. Pummels central VA to Northern VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Any word on the 18z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, tarheelwx said: Any word on the 18z Euro? There is no such thing as the 18z Euro, it only comes out twice a day 0z and 12z. Gfs comes out 4 times a day at 0z, 6z, 12z, 18z. Maybe thats what you meant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 15 minutes ago, Avdave said: There is no such thing as the 18z Euro, it only comes out twice a day 0z and 12z. Gfs comes out 4 times a day at 0z, 6z, 12z, 18z. Maybe thats what you meant? I am sorry, but there is an 06z and 18z ECMWF run. However, those runs only go out to 96 hours instead of 240. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I know there are postings about it from time to time, but wasn't sure of the time range. Thanks for clarifying. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 20 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I am sorry, but there is an 06z and 18z ECMWF run. However, those runs only go out to 96 hours instead of 240. True but most people just stick to the 0 and 12z runs. Not every model website offers the 6/18z Euro either. The 0z and 12z are the most popular ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 10 hours ago, BullCityWx said: 10 hours ago, BullCityWx said: Love when its 34 in Concord and 70 in Columbia! Guessing 45-55miles apart as the crow flies?? Southern winters ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Still got a lazy eye on what passes through Thursday. That is a perfect example of an event that could jump north quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSchew Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 30 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Still got a lazy eye on what passes through Thursday. That is a perfect example of an event that could jump north quickly. Agreed. Looks like the latest NAM suite is spitting out mostly virga over NC piedmont on Thursday morning. Very dry 925 layer. 2m temps around 40. 2m dew point in the mid 20s. Wet bulb around freezing. A little juice and we could see a sleet pellet or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Euro ENSMEAN for the day 8 event has one of the strongest damming signals on a smoothed out mean I've ever seen at this lead time. Ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: Euro ENSMEAN for the day 8 event has one of the strongest damming signals on a smoothed out mean I've ever seen. Ever. Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Looks somewhat to be progressively building in around that time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I used to follow Larry Cosgrove back in the day when I was more active with weather. He just posted in tropical discussions: Just so you know, however, that the analog system projects a very warm April and May, and a searing hot summer with multiple East Coast hurricane threats. So enjoy the chill and the chance for whote powder, because "Redux 2020 Hurricane Season" is high on the probability charts. Maybe it will be a season with 1996 like tracks. Sleep well tonight. Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on Saturday, January 16, 2020 at 9:40 P.M. CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 18z Para was a beauty at 500mb for next Wed/Thu. That’s our best shot at something working out with the ridge going up behind the wave...and confluent flow held the whole time over PA/NY as the wave tracked across the country - not allowing the wave to climb north 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, griteater said: 18z Para was a beauty at 500mb for next Wed/Thu. That’s our best shot at something working out with the ridge going up behind the wave...and confluent flow held the whole time over PA/NY as the wave tracked across the country - not allowing the wave to climb north That is beautiful. Kind of strange looking how tracks. Weenie run for me . Sure would like to see some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, Grayman said: That is beautiful. Kind of strange looking how tracks. Weenie run for me . Sure would like to see some consistency. This is how this season would go, you get a good pasting an all the way down to Savannah, GA gets snow and its cloudy and cold in the triangle. Looks like a Palmetto state special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 15 minutes ago, Avdave said: This is how this season would go, you get a good pasting an all the way down to Savannah, GA gets snow and its cloudy and cold in the triangle. Looks like a Palmetto state special If it has a warm bubble all the way into NE GA and the Western Upstate, you can count on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Man!!! It's been years I've seen a southern California ULL at that latitude and longitude. Looking at the WV tropics are sounding off tonight. That's a shit ton of southern stream energy that will be ejected over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Avdave said: This is how this season would go, you get a good pasting an all the way down to Savannah, GA gets snow and its cloudy and cold in the triangle. Looks like a Palmetto state special I’m such a weenie I’m googling Gfs para consistency . Stupid question. Is Gfs para and Gfs V16 same thing? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Grayman said: I’m such a weenie I’m googling Gfs para consistency . Stupid question. Is Gfs para and Gfs V16 same thing? Yes, same. Current GFS version is 15. Next version is 16 which is run in parallel (para) to the current version but comes out 15-20 min later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Avdave said: This is how this season would go, you get a good pasting an all the way down to Savannah, GA gets snow and its cloudy and cold in the triangle. Looks like a Palmetto state special Wheres the NW trend when you need it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 39 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Wheres the NW trend when you need it? We have over 200hrs to go my friend. Hope it doesn't end up in Ohio. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Pretty much the same h5 evolution on this run of the para, but the storm is weaker (but some snow or mix down into SC) Reg GFS also went in the same direction at h5 (500mb), but the storm is very weak and goes ‘poof’ as Burger used to say Good trends overall though on wave track being farther south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 CMC is stronger with early week wave - it is wintry in Mid Atl, then weaker and north with wave 2 Formula for it to possibly work out for us is weak wave 1 in early week, then stronger with wave 2 late week, with big ridge behind it and big 50/50 low in front of it to keep it south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Can someone tell me why these 2 maps are so different from each other. These are the 12z EURO runs from yesterday.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Or better yet, which one is more accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Can someone tell me why these 2 maps are so different from each other. These are the 12z EURO runs from yesterday. It looks like SV is saying - if sfc temp is below freezing, count it as snow (even if temps aloft are above freezing). Poor algorithm it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, griteater said: It looks like SV is saying - if sfc temp is below freezing, count it as snow (even if temps aloft are above freezing). Poor algorithm it seems Okay thanks... DT seems to use SV a lot, probably cause it shows the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 GFS v15 with the C-ENC snowstorm day 7/8. Nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 CMC also brings a good snow to Northern NC , Southern VA around the same time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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