Avdave Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 30 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I haven't seen a true CAD wedge snow to ice storm in years like modeled on the day 9/10 Euro. Would be nice. Pretty classic NC event as depicted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, Avdave said: Nice . I will take a nice snow to ice storm at this point. Does anyone knew if euro ensembles support? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 1:16 PM, SnowDawg said: This was a nice call. GFS immediately delivered a big dog fantasy run within just a few hours lol. And then, just like that, things turned back around lol. At least we don't have a super consolidated PV. However, the problem seems to remain with the Pacific. The NAO has helped suppress the storm track somewhat, but we can't seem to get a buildup of truly cold air to get transported into the SE. The LR looks like a mess right now, if you're looking for a real shot at a big SE winter storm, unfortunately. Of course, the other day, things looked to be trending better. Guess that was a false start and things could look to turn around again in a couple of days. The thing I tend to look at and weigh heavily when looking at LR model data is seasonal trends. The trends so far have been for a rare -NAO to be a stable feature and for the Pacific to remain unhelpful, regardless of what the models show beyond D10. Until we see a deviation from those things make it to within a few days of happening, it's probably best to just expect more of the same. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 I remember maybe 15 years or so ago, that we had a similar setup where everything was aligned except for the PNA. And...... we were getting a similar result as we have now. When we got to the end of winter, we heard "if it wasn't for the pacific crashing into the west coast and running straight across the country, we would have been set. I also remember a couple of time when several of the indexes were bad (NAO included), but we had a very strong PNA - the results were we didn't have any sustained cold, but we had chances with timing and eaked out normal snowfall for the season (thought it didn't stay around for more than a couple of days). History tells me that anyone that harps on the need to have a -NAO but is blind to the state of the PNA needs to be taken out behind the woodshed. Here's to hoping we score big at some point. TW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Judah Cohen: I believe that I have a reputation as one who hypes the #cold & #snow so here is a tweet for those who like their winters mild, not wild. Last night's GFS says "PV, shmevee!" i.e., despite the #PolarVortex's antics no meaningful cold for North America into the foreseeable future. https://t.co/sZ9U1PRc0m 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Judah Cohen: I believe that I have a reputation as one who hypes the #cold & #snow so here is a tweet for those who like their winters mild, not wild. Last night's GFS says "PV, shmevee!" i.e., despite the #PolarVortex's antics no meaningful cold for North America into the foreseeable future. https://t.co/sZ9U1PRc0m To be fair, his rep is more that he is just not a good forecaster and his indexes generally provide little value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Pna trumps all other indices for us and it couldn’t be in worse throughout the long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 BAMWX updated video. Excellent work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 hours ago, burrel2 said: Pna trumps all other indices for us and it couldn’t be in worse throughout the long range. MJO drives it. In many cases (depending on what you what to see happen) it's the kabal force measure on how these indices will behave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, CaryWx said: MJO drives it. In many cases (depending on what you what to see happen) it's the kabal force measure on how these indices will behave. You are spot on On Friday the MJO gave signs the implied pattern was going to unravel Yes it is very disappointing however it has been a great run of winter since 11/29 in western NC with 41 days of general snow cover above 4500’ and already 60” this season in places. Far better than last year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Big ZR -> IP -> SN on the 12z euro. Lets see if ensembles agree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Interesting maps on the 12z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Avdave said: Interesting maps on the 12z Euro I’ve seen storms that go backward like that before. If I had to guess, it would be less ZR than depicted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: I’ve seen storms that go backward like that before. If I had to guess, it would be less ZR than depicted. This would be a first for me since moving down here in June 2016 for storms to move in a reverse direction than normal. I would hope it is less, that is a ton of ZR. Reminds me a little of the Dec 2008 Ice storm we had when I was in NH. Crippling the region for weeks. But back to the topic, Im glad at least the Euro and CMC have a storm still on their radar. Even though it favors the RIC-SHD corridor it still has us in the game at 192 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Pretty classic setup for the models to trend colder as CAD is picked up. I like it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Avdave said: This would be a first for me since moving down here in June 2016 for storms to move in a reverse direction than normal. I would hope it is less, that is a ton of ZR. Reminds me a little of the Dec 2008 Ice storm we had when I was in NH. Crippling the region for weeks. But back to the topic, Im glad at least the Euro and CMC have a storm still on their radar. Even though it favors the RIC-SHD corridor it still has us in the game at 192 hours out Probably more sleet here than zr given that setup. I’d expect more ZR down toward the border counties. That’s how it has traditionally gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Pretty classic setup for the models to trend colder as CAD is picked up. I like it. Yep. I knew something was up around 162 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: To match it to the Ptype map above, depending on what the 850s will be, I took a peak at them and it looks like the 850s will be around 1-2 above freezing. so this could be some decent ZR here with a 30* surface temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Northern NC and S Va do really well in these type of storms. I’ve seen my share of 35 and rain while about Sanford north has fz rain. I just need to move if I ever want to be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Avdave said: To match it to the Ptype map above, depending on what the 850s will be, I took a peak at them and it looks like the 850s will be around 1-2 above freezing. so this could be some decent ZR here with a 30* surface temp. I think honestly it'd be more sleet with what I saw. the 925 temps for MBY were around -6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Pretty classic look with the 12z EURO. Would love to see us be able to get this storm to track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I think honestly it'd be more sleet with what I saw. the 925 temps for MBY were around -6. WEll we dont have to worry about it too much. GFS says enjoy more of what you have gotten this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 This looks like a storm moving into a deepening CAD event that pushes south. If that is to be believed just need timing to work. 6-12hrs faster for either the CAD or slower for storm arrival and this would be a decent hit in a lot of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 And I guarantee you if the synoptic setup occurs just like the Euro is showing, CAD is undermodeled at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 17 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: And I guarantee you if the synoptic setup occurs just like the Euro is showing, CAD is undermodeled at this range. Yep, better push those ptypes south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 18z GFS made a big step toward the euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: 18z GFS made a big step toward the euro solution. Any idea why it’s so warm on the Gfs? I mean we need 10 degree or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 38 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: 18z GFS made a big step toward the euro solution. Man a ton of volatility tho in the 18z gfs. Good grief! Multiple s/w within a couple days of each other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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