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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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8 hours ago, griteater said:

Yeah we’re not far off in the mid and extended range. One thing to watch for is to see if the pattern can become more suppressed than currently shown - sometimes that happens on the modeling in the bigger -NAO’s like this 

Not a huge fan of the tendency for lower heights out west.  But with a tPV up in central/eastern Canada and a big -NAO you can get NW to SE moving systems kind of like what's shown on the 6z GFS, out in time anyway.  I think pretty soon, we'll start to see some legit big dogs show up.

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Not a huge fan of the tendency for lower heights out west.  But with a tPV up in central/eastern Canada and a big -NAO you can get NW to SE moving systems kind of like what's shown on the 6z GFS, out in time anyway.  I think pretty soon, we'll start to see some legit big dogs show up.

Hey, been waiting for you to show up.  Turn those Shields off!!!

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2 hours ago, eyewall said:

So it looks like we have burned much of prime climo time and it is on to February. It won't be long before we have to fight sun angle etc. The GFS had a light event at month's end but obviously that is fantasy range.

That's one way to look at it...  but really it is only "half" of prime climo time.  The average snowfall for RDU for February/March is only slightly lower than the average snowfall for December/January...  

I'll start getting worried if we haven't seen anything (observation, not models), by Valentine's.  

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2 hours ago, eyewall said:

So it looks like we have burned much of prime climo time and it is on to February. It won't be long before we have to fight sun angle etc. The GFS had a light event at month's end but obviously that is fantasy range.

I would not be so quick to write off the end of January. There’s a lot of things to like in the overall pattern the last week or so of the month

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34 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Surprise this morning in Dry Fork 2213d8c722f54d0dcf1a5b5530d92ce4.jpg

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

I was at the farm in Stuart this morning and getting the very light flurries but noticed the radar really filled in nicely with the heavier returns just east towards Martinsville.  Glad you got a surprise!

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6 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Not a huge fan of the tendency for lower heights out west.  But with a tPV up in central/eastern Canada and a big -NAO you can get NW to SE moving systems kind of like what's shown on the 6z GFS, out in time anyway.  I think pretty soon, we'll start to see some legit big dogs show up.

This was a nice call. GFS immediately delivered a big dog fantasy run within just a few hours lol.

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10 hours ago, eyewall said:

So it looks like we have burned much of prime climo time and it is on to February. It won't be long before we have to fight sun angle etc. The GFS had a light event at month's end but obviously that is fantasy range.

I’ll be honest, been back in Raleigh this winter, and it has accidentally snowed more than I can ever remember.

Just today we had an intense snow squall that coated the ground.

And it has rarely been mild or warm this winter. While we may have missed on the blockbuster snow so far, it has certainly felt like winter.

Having grown up in the South, that is something to talk about.

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