Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

[Grayman]

2 hours ago, RT1980 said:

I don’t think it’s intentionally being pessimistic, more along the lines of not being mentally let down.  The stars, moons and planets seem to have to be perfectly aligned for what most want ( a historic storm). If expectations are lowered and model hugging doesn’t occur then we may be surprised by late March.  Who knows?

Weenies will be weenies. All hope is in pattens 21 days out when nobody can get the forecast right within 5 days. No sign of any cold air and that is the cold hard facts, next weenie up 

[buckeyefan1]

The whining thread is now pinned to make it easier access for those that would like to complain   

[eyewall]

There is no doubt it looks like complete crap and cutter city on the GFS. I was pretty confident RDU would zero out this year and so far that seems to be on track.

[NorthHillsWx]

Is it a good thing for snow in the South when the rain/snow line storm is halfway through Hudson Bay in mid-January?

[Waiting on snow]

5 hours ago, eyewall said:

There is no doubt it looks like complete crap and cutter city on the GFS. I was pretty confident RDU would zero out this year and so far that seems to be on track.

I seriously doubt Raleigh zeros out. Raleigh always lucks out. Now here is different. I zeroed out last year and fully expect it again this year.

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

I hope you’re right but we don’t have anything brewing and Canada  is not looking cold in the short term.  Hopefully the telecommunications will eventually win out for all of us.  
 

There is definitely a huge Wake county gradient so it does matter where you live.  I’m on the Wake/Durham county line so I luck out more often than not.

[NC_hailstorm]

Funny how no model or any forecaster saw any of the impressive blocking so far,NOBODY but the solar signals screamed blocking.It is fighting a healthy La Nina so we do have a battle going on right now.

About to exit the latest solar cycle and given the usual 10 day lag(give or take a few days)things should improve with tropical forcing and MJO help.This latest cycle also should finish off the PV for a SSW soon,Euro is trying to push into phase 2 MJO which is usually a cold look for the east around 10-12 days.AO still looks to stay quite negative as does NAO so as long as that blocking shows up you are still in the game.

Would like to see that PV enter the troposphere by Jan.25th or so on our side of the continent,another cycle around then would most likely pull it west if it entered later.

I'm not throwing in the towel yet I'll wait a while.Just my opinion.

[NorthHillsWx]

12z GFS keeps a shred of hope alive for the 3-4th storm. Euro has it too. Poor HP placement means no arctic cold source but ULL overhead provides a cool pool with decent 850’s. Storm would have to generate its own cold air, in other words. We know how that usually ends up. But the track is favorable and the upper levels aren’t bad so there is a chance... this isn’t way out in fantasy land either. At least something to watch other than cutter city in the near future. Sucks to have a favorable LP track but no cold air but alas so is life in the south 

[BullCityWx]

I can work with that. Valid for hour 156.

[griteater]

As good a retrograding Greenland block as we've seen in 10 years getting ruined simultaneously by an awful Pacific pattern.  These are in complete opposition to one another in terms of what we are looking for.

 

[griteater]

^ I gave some thoughts regarding the culprit for the problems with the Pacific pattern in a thread here: https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1342941989696905218

 

[eyewall]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

12z GFS keeps a shred of hope alive for the 3-4th storm. Euro has it too. Poor HP placement means no arctic cold source but ULL overhead provides a cool pool with decent 850’s. Storm would have to generate its own cold air, in other words. We know how that usually ends up. But the track is favorable and the upper levels aren’t bad so there is a chance... this isn’t way out in fantasy land either. At least something to watch other than cutter city in the near future. Sucks to have a favorable LP track but no cold air but alas so is life in the south 

Yep, definitely would be rate driven with the ULL. It really is a nice track otherwise of the surface system.

[BullCityWx]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yep, definitely would be rate driven with the ULL. It really is a nice track otherwise of the surface system.

Almost reminds me of last February 

[SnowNiner]

45 minutes ago, griteater said:

^ I gave some thoughts regarding the culprit for the problems with the Pacific pattern in a thread here: https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1342941989696905218

 

Thanks Grit, great information. Always seems to come down to the mjo doesn't it? So to sum up, the same +EAMT element that's feeding the weakening vortex (good), and the Atlantic blocking (good) is the same process that's causing the AK low (very, very bad). That's just not fair right there. lol. 

Any positive signs that the convection will indeed move out of the Maritimes? Or are we just hoping the SSW will mix things up? The last few winters it seemed like it wanted to hang out there for a long, long time. 

[Jonathan]

I think if nothing else, this winter will prove that the Pacific is much more important than the Atlantic. First -NAO we've had in a decade and it's ruined by a +EPO. We can get winter storms with a +NAO/-EPO by threading the needle but we can't even get a needle to thread with the opposite.

Bummer. At least some folks had white grass for Christmas. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Let’s hope it somehow hits the Bull City.
 

Btw.... good work Grit.  Do you see the Pacific relaxing in about 11-15 days and the -NAO still persisting or will everyone be on the whining thread before long?

 

 

[griteater]

2 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

Thanks Grit, great information. Always seems to come down to the mjo doesn't it? So to sum up, the same +EAMT element that's feeding the weakening vortex (good), and the Atlantic blocking (good) is the same process that's causing the AK low (very, very bad). That's just not fair right there. lol. 

Any positive signs that the convection will indeed move out of the Maritimes? Or are we just hoping the SSW will mix things up? The last few winters it seemed like it wanted to hang out there for a long, long time. 

NOAA CPC is predicting a new MJO event will emerge over the Indian Ocean in Week 2.  It would then move east, but we would have to see with how much amplitude.  Strat warming should help with propagation if it does indeed form.  See the MJO Weekly Update - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

[griteater]

2 hours ago, Jonathan said:

I think if nothing else, this winter will prove that the Pacific is much more important than the Atlantic. First -NAO we've had in a decade and it's ruined by a +EPO. We can get winter storms with a +NAO/-EPO by threading the needle but we can't even get a needle to thread with the opposite.

Bummer. At least some folks had white grass for Christmas. 

Yeah, the Pac side is just essential for the cold air.  We can't have a bad Pac side.  I guess it is something like this (thinking out loud, ha)...For number of winter storms / winter storm threats, we've gotta have the Pac side.  The Atlantic side then gives you a better chance at having higher quality storm features like 50/50 lows, surface highs that don't race off the NE coast, sfc highs with CAD, suppressed 500mb wave track, amplifying and slower moving waves (storms)

[griteater]

2 hours ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Let’s hope it somehow hits the Bull City.
 

Btw.... good work Grit.  Do you see the Pacific relaxing in about 11-15 days and the -NAO still persisting or will everyone be on the whining thread before long?

The whining thread will be hot and heavy for sure.  Hopeful that we can see a better pattern emerge or in sight by mid-Jan.  The Greenland blocking and Strat Warming (and likely official SSW) are things we haven't see much of at all in the past 10 years, so that is interesting to see.  Hopefully, that will be something that sticks around for much of the winter (at least off and on), and we get into a better Pac pattern down the road.  We are going to need a little GNR Patience though I think, as it may take some weeks.

[BullCityWx]

*chefs kiss*
 

 

[buckeyefan1]

16 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

*chefs kiss*
 

 

This. Is. Beautiful.

[CaryWx]

Would like to see this start showing up Friday on the LR models

[Wow]

it's coming.  it's been 10 years since i've seen this, but a very sustained -NAO signature looks to be happening.. patience, people. once the PNA pops...

[wncsnow]

Do I see an extended dry spell on the horizon after this weekend?? 

Some nice weather ahead, lots of 60s and 50s. 

[wncsnow]

January is looking like it will be more above average than December unless the last 2 weeks are frigid 

[FamouslyHot]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

January is looking like it will be more above average than December unless the last 2 weeks are frigid 

Good news is temps in the Eastern US lag about 20 days behind a SSW event, and with this projected to begin the first week of the year, we may begin to cash in around the last week of January. Bad news is I doubt it'll be enough to get our temps down to average even. Late Jan - early Feb is the time to watch though for extreme cold.

[BullCityWx]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

January is looking like it will be more above average than December unless the last 2 weeks are frigid 

Doesn’t look too warm outside of NYE and NYD

[FLweather]

I seriously don't see the long range being a torch.

 

[CaryWx]

Nope

[wncsnow]

It's still generally 5 to 10 degrees above average on non rainy or wedge days. I guess that's an improvement over last year still but we are going to have to wait a while for any snow chances