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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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Next 7 days or so look quiet,GFS and Euro both bringing down an arctic front around day 8/9.Euro runs a big storm up the front,GFS just a frontal passage but the air behind looks plenty cold.

Afterwards you're just watching for shortwaves to interact with the cold air,both models have something but impossible to pin down this far out.Also when I see the 582-585dm pushing all the way up into Oregon/Washington I start watching.   Eyes open.

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

We're on the 2011-2012 / 1999-2000 La Nina plan right now.  Hopefully we can get off the plan in the case of 11-12, or find a deep wintry few weeks in the case of 99-00.

Hi ya Grit.  Remember winter '99-'00 quite well.  Had the big (record?) snow in the Triangle around mid/late January.  Ironically about 2 weeks prior I recall working in my backyard and taking a nap on the deck with only a sweatshirt and it felt warm.  Crazy winter swings but sometimes they produce the big ones. 

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

That’s always been the #1 sign that winter is a disaster.  Maybe a possible slow MJO trek thru phases 7-8-1-2 can help us going into January 

12/6 and we are already talking about January ugh.

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