CaryWx Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 On 11/4/2021 at 12:14 PM, ILMRoss said: GFS already in midwinter form In a typical January cold this would have been our storm? Throwing only enough precip back to the Triangle to avoid a warm nose at 850, then moving out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 6, 2021 Author Share Posted November 6, 2021 On 11/5/2021 at 9:18 AM, strongwxnc said: Just like normal. . Every year I feel stronger that the money spent on this model could be better spent elsewhere. Maybe crystals and a small pyramid. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Looks like it's shaping up to be a cold 2nd half of the month. Certainly will be nice if we can start winter early, as opposed to waiting until mid-February. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Harsh and early cold snap sweeping China & Korean Peninsula as we speak. Winter storm warnings are in force with Beijing recording its first snowfall of the season (23 days earlier than average). https://t.co/FuSBRBaiZU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 23 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Harsh and early cold snap sweeping China & Korean Peninsula as we speak. Winter storm warnings are in force with Beijing recording its first snowfall of the season (23 days earlier than average). https://t.co/FuSBRBaiZU The accuweather long term forecasts (which mean nothing really) are now showing several snow chances the 2 weeks following Christmas. FWIW 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 ECMWF-EPS temperature anomaly 12z forecast for Nov 13 to Nov 23 from Pivotal Weather. #Natgas https://t.co/BamLH4mVSl https://t.co/HK2LJL5VgV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Do you see what I see? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FENag1aXsAEz1Za?format=png&name=medium 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Do you see what I see? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FENag1aXsAEz1Za?format=png&name=medium I've got the fantasy flizzard blower 2000 ready 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 The Euro smokes the mid atlantic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 35 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The Euro smokes the mid atlantic The la la land fantasy models have had this system around the holiday for a bit now. It might be time to start my annual winter madness model subscription. Perfect way to kick off the winter season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 6 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Do you see what I see? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FENag1aXsAEz1Za?format=png&name=medium Yes! My first 1” of digital snowfall! Hopefully I break 100” again this year! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Every year I always think about what a “good” winter means to me. Being from central NC and having spent my full life either here or the upstate of South Carolina, I know the difficulties in getting sustained cold or any winter weather. With that being said, to me a “good” winter features: 1 winter storm warning that actually verifies 2 WWA events At least two Arctic shots per month (3-4 days of really cold air in a row from December through February). Usually winters like these also have 4-5 events that we track for days that just don’t pan out once we get inside 72 hours, but they are fun to track regardless. The last few winters (going back to the December 2018 snow) have been lacking those nuisance events or even close calls. Last year had more model snow “chances” but very few had any shot outside maybe 24 hours of model runs. That’s really what separates this current stretch from years past is the lack of nuisance events or borderline tracking systems. Growing up it seemed every couple of weeks we had a WWA for snow or FRZ that would change to rain. We haven’t even had that. We haven’t had any big coastal storms where Raleigh was borderline and the triad got smoked. That seemed to happen at least once a year. I guess the moral of my story is I know we statistically see little snow or cold air, but even that being said, the complete lack or borderline or even minimal events for all of central NC, not just my yard, has been noticeable for several years. Here’s to hoping 2021-2 is the year that breaks that trend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Fairly strong shortwave in Manitoba diving SSE around day 6,probably needs it to dig more west to have a shot but still fun to watch.It's not impossible to get a dusting/inch,or a rain/snow mix in late November but looks like a cold shot even without a storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 Good chance parts of the Triad will see first teens of the season next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 Might get some decent and *much needed* rain Monday. Sitting at 0.15” for the month. Models have trended *slightly* wetter on Monday east of the Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 27 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Might get some decent and *much needed* rain Monday. Sitting at 0.15” for the month. Models have trended *slightly* wetter on Monday east of the Apps I hope so. I am sitting at .41" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Might get some decent and *much needed* rain Monday. Sitting at 0.15” for the month. Models have trended *slightly* wetter on Monday east of the Apps Would be nice. Sitting at .07" MTD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 21, 2021 Author Share Posted November 21, 2021 On 11/20/2021 at 12:43 PM, Avdave said: Would be nice. Sitting at .07" MTD .16” here. No wonder the leaves are so nice and crunchy when I walk around my yard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 2 hours ago, jburns said: .16” here. No wonder the leaves are so nice and crunchy when I walk around my yard.. Makes it easier if you have to blow the leaves or vacuum them up since they are not intact fully anymore like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 .29" here so far for the month of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1.26 for me, driest month in years. Stil over 56 in for the year so no drought here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Brendan Weathers: The 0z GFS is very troughy for the Eastern US. Hopefully we can get a pattern like this heading into December! https://t.co/OxeF3jlGNr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 On 11/21/2021 at 6:46 PM, Avdave said: Makes it easier if you have to blow the leaves or vacuum them up since they are not intact fully anymore like you said. I just do one last regular mow with a mulching attachment and presto they are gone. So simple. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, jburns said: I just do one last regular mow with a mulching attachment and presto they are gone. So simple. Nice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Forecast to be below freezing each morning for the next 10 days IMBY. That will get rid of what bugs remain. Unfortunately, it looks dry. Very Nina like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 v 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 GFS tries to bring frequent cold shots through the first 10 days of December. Not far fetched we could see an opportunity with cold air around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 hour ago, eyewall said: v That's the system that has been showing up off and on for next weekend and the reason I started my winter subscription again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Yeah, the snow clown maps remain unlikely to verify, but we are no longer at the Point where we can summarily dismissed them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 18z gfs took it away again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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