WinstonSalemArlington Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 The big midrange question is will next week be dry and mild to warm, or will there be a cutoff low mid week to keep things chilly and Grey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Looks like the GFS and Euro are going for a fairly strong CAD around day 6/7.Seeing a 1030-1040 HP in southeast Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Retrograding cutoff low end of next week? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Looks like we may have seen our last rainfall for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 1:05 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Looks like we may have seen our last rainfall for the month Looks very dry for the next 10 days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Pretty sure it dipped into the upper 40s here in Concord early this am. LOVE THAT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 7 hours ago, 85snowline said: Pretty sure it dipped into the upper 40s here in Concord early this am. LOVE THAT! Yep it shows up on the hourly report from KJQF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Great news for warmth lovers (I'm not one of them but I'm just glad summer is over): this is about as warm as it has ever been on record for the eastern 3/4 of the US overall (though not specifically the SE) in the first half of October on the EPS (CMC and GEFS similar): these show +4 to+7 for most of the active SE US members and the EPS has done well recently: These temps would be normal for the first half of Sept!Aside: At NYC, this implies a first half of Oct that is 10+ warmer than normal when taking into account a several degree cold bias there over the last month! That implies it would be close to the normal for Sep 1-15 there: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 11 hours ago, GaWx said: Great news for warmth lovers (I'm not one of them but I'm just glad summer is over): this is about as warm as it has ever been on record for the eastern 3/4 of the US overall (though not specifically the SE) in the first half of October on the EPS (CMC and GEFS similar): these show +4 to+7 for most of the active SE US members and the EPS has done well recently: These temps would be normal for the first half of Sept!Aside: At NYC, this implies a first half of Oct that is 10+ warmer than normal when taking into account a several degree cold bias there over the last month! That implies it would be close to the normal for Sep 1-15 there: Isn't there a correlation between a warn October and a cold winter? Seems like you mentioned some supporting data years ago...... or maybe I read it somewhere. I am getting old you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Another snowless winter in NC outside of the mountains incoming. La NIna projected. We can hang hopes on the 10-15 day model runs as always. I hope it’s different but I won’t hang a hat on it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 11 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Isn't there a correlation between a warn October and a cold winter? Seems like you mentioned some supporting data years ago...... or maybe I read it somewhere. I am getting old you know. I vaguely recall something similar about a specific set of analogs that i once analyzed (perhaps ENSO related)...maybe weak El Nino? But anyway based on current knowledge, I see no reason to expect a cold winter based strictly on this October being warm (assuming it ends up that way). I just looked and see no reverse correlation. Any correlation appears to be rather small and may be a small positive one, if anything. Moreover, based on it being La Nina, there still being near record warm anomalies in the W Pac/MC (which is generally a warm indicator in winter because it tends to favor the warmer MJO phases like has been the case overall for 10+ years), with there having been a gradual longterm trend of warmer winters due to GW, and with the Euro/CFS/Maxar favoring warmth, I see no reason to go for a cold winter at this time. My wild guess right now is to go NN to slightly AN for Dec and then AN for Jan and Feb. But even then, I'm very much still looking forward to my favorite season because climo tells me that it will still be at least 15-20 cooler than what we're now having along with much lower dewpoints. That can never be a bad thing as I don't get hung up on where we are vs normals as much as I used to. I just want to be able to go outside to enjoy refreshing air on a alot of days. Also, keep in mind the lack of skill in longterm /seasonal forecasting. And even in a "warm" winter, there will almost always be a few cold snaps. So, big swings/variety is typical of most winters unlike monotonous summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 The real pattern is probably +NAO/+PNA, behind all the clutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Today's 15 day EPS 2M temp anomaly map (see below) is even warmer than the one I posted above with anomalies of +5 to +8 for most of the active SE members! This takes us through early 10/18. With progs like this and if no cooldown shows up within a few days, we would then start to look at a decent shot at a top 3 warm October in some areas of the SE: Warmest Octobers on record (hopefully I didn't miss any when I looked at the list): 1. RDU: 69.3 1919 68.1 1941 67.4 2007 65.8 2019 2. ATL: 70.8 1919 69.8 1984 69.6 2016 69.4 1941 3. Nashville, TN: 68.2 1919 67.9 1947 67.8 1941 67.7 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Nothing much in the long term to indicate our first frost in the SE before at least third week of October. However, in a shocking development, the west is progged to be much below normal over the next two weeks. Maybe this signals a reversal in winter fortunes this year. Last year I remember taking some cold rides in October and November. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said: Nothing much in the long term to indicate our first frost in the SE before at least third week of October. However, in a shocking development, the west is progged to be much below normal over the next two weeks. Maybe this signals a reversal in winter fortunes this year. Last year I remember taking some cold rides in October and November. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php I checked with last years temps and us in the southeast didn't get our first frost until early Dec. Inland from us got it in mid Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 16 hours ago, yotaman said: I checked with last years temps and us in the southeast didn't get our first frost until early Dec. Inland from us got it in mid Nov. Not certain if you meant the entire Southeast, but the Triad had a frost on November 3. Additionally, it got down to 30 degrees on November 19. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Not certain if you meant the entire Southeast, but the Triad had a frost on November 3. Additionally, it got down to 30 degrees on November 19. I meant east of highway 17. Inland from there yes yall got much colder than us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 On 10/5/2021 at 5:27 PM, yotaman said: I checked with last years temps and us in the southeast didn't get our first frost until early Dec. Inland from us got it in mid Nov. We are running 14 degrees warmer than this time last year. Last September and parts of October were pretty chilly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Indications of an upcoming pattern change 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 -PNA is record setting. +400dm coming up. This Sept/Oct is going to be most -PDO, meaning Aleutian ridge/GOA trough since satellites in 1948. The Winter composite is Global warming skew... this is 8plus years and 8minus years. Warm in the mid-latitudes~ This agrees with trend of this last few years. Slight chance for a -NAO this Winter, but when it happens it may be accompanied by a stronger +EPO/-PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: -PNA is record setting. +400dm coming up. This Sept/Oct is going to be most -PDO, meaning Aleutian ridge/GOA trough since satellites in 1948. The Winter composite is Global warming skew... this is 8plus years and 8minus years. Warm in the mid-latitudes~ This agrees with trend of this last few years. Slight chance for a -NAO this Winter, but when it happens it may be accompanied by a stronger +EPO/-PNA I'll take my chances this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 The medium range model consensus has clearly trended cooler since the Friday morning runs for later this month for the E US. They have the upper trough at that time further west into the E US vs having been mainly offshore in older runs. That has continued through the 18Z GFS/GEFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Next week's pattern trending a little cooler than previous as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Next week's pattern trending a little cooler than previous as well Looks like we may see low in the upper 40's for the first time this season which translates to the 30's to low 40's for those west of 95. About time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 The next two weeks looks like perfect leaf peeping weather 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: The next two weeks looks like perfect leaf peeping weather Yea at the perfect time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Just now, Met1985 said: Yea at the perfect time as well. Indeed! I'm looking forward to a couple of day trip at minimum. It's a beautiful fall color year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said: The next two weeks looks like perfect leaf peeping weather Indeed, we are heading up this weekend and into early next week to NW NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 27 minutes ago, Avdave said: Indeed, we are heading up this weekend and into early next week to NW NC Yasssssss!!! It's going to be absolute perfection 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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