NorthHillsWx Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 This would hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 13 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: This would hurt Unfortunately, there are pretty good odds this is the way it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 No 90s showing up in the 15 day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: No 90s showing up in the 15 day! Low 90's for Saturday for us and then no more 90's, until they change the forecast, for the next 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 According to the 00z NAM, TC Three’s rain shifts slightly north, but there’s just less of it to go around. Not much to see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 16 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: According to the 00z NAM, TC Three’s rain shifts slightly north, but there’s just less of it to go around. Not much to see here. This makes me sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 11 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said: This makes me sad Selfishly for MBY, I’d love for the 12z NAM to verify with its 2.5” of rain. Trends still seem to move the precipitation track northward compared to yesterday’s runs. I’m not convinced that’ll pan out though. I think that I-85 will be the cutoff line with most precipitation to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 Chilly Independence Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said: Chilly Independence Day? And wet the previous few days before independence day. For once the western part of the state is running behind the eastern part this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 Yep. Cutoff lows are fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmoon Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 I love it. Keep the cooler weather coming. I've just hit 90 once so far this spring and summer in the southern foothills of wnc. Can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 How can we get these cutoff lows in the winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 With the cutoff low in the Ohio valley, we could enter into an extended wet period as well. Below average and wet, I’ll take it going into the peak of summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 52 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: With the cutoff low in the Ohio valley, we could enter into an extended wet period as well. Below average and wet, I’ll take it going into the peak of summer Euro says the front will push through all the way to the Gulf coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 9:29 AM, WinstonSalemArlington said: How can we get these cutoff lows in the winter? In the winter we just get cutoff highs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 23 hours ago, cbmclean said: In the winter we just get cutoff highs. We get cutoff period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 RAH forecasts 1.3” of rain IMBY from Thursday afternoon to early Saturday morning. I’m definitely taking the under on that one. Last couple of Euro runs maintain the anti-precipitation shield over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 7 hours ago, magpiemaniac said: RAH forecasts 1.3” of rain IMBY from Thursday afternoon to early Saturday morning. I’m definitely taking the under on that one. Last couple of Euro runs maintain the anti-precipitation shield over my house. GSP is giving me about the same for Friday. mby shares your shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said: GSP is giving me about the same for Friday. mby shares your shield For weeks now, I’ve been used to storms coming from the southwest and dropping the most intense rain to my west and east. I’ve been in a dry corridor. I assumed that since this week’s front is approaching from the northwest there’s no way I could miss out on a good soaking rain. But the models are hinting otherwise. Most of the intense rain will form to my east after the front passes. I’ll end up with a 0.20” light shower of Friday while the Triangle will end up with 2.20”. You might think I’m joking, but just wait and see. The updated 30-day and 60-day precipitation map shows how dry the western areas of NC and SC have been compared to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 That little white dot in the middle of all the brown is mby. It’s feast or famine around the south, but thank gawd it’s not as bad as the west is currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 45 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: For weeks now, I’ve been used to storms coming from the southwest and dropping the most intense rain to my west and east. I’ve been in a dry corridor. I assumed that since this week’s front is approaching from the northwest there’s no way I could miss out on a good soaking rain. But the models are hinting otherwise. Most of the intense rain will form to my east after the front passes. I’ll end up with a 0.20” light shower of Friday while the Triangle will end up with 2.20”. You might think I’m joking, but just wait and see. The updated 30-day and 60-day precipitation map shows how dry the western areas of NC and SC have been compared to the east. I'm right on the edge of the darkest shade of brown in WNC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: That little white dot in the middle of all the brown is mby. It’s feast or famine around the south, but thank gawd it’s not as bad as the west is currently Misery loves company. My house is under the arrow. The brown dot matches the color of my grass. But you’re right. At least we’re not too worried about wildfires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 18 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I'm right on the edge of the darkest shade of brown in WNC These precipitation trends need to change by winter. If these were seasonal snow maps instead of rain, I’d go bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 2 hours ago, magpiemaniac said: For weeks now, I’ve been used to storms coming from the southwest and dropping the most intense rain to my west and east. I’ve been in a dry corridor. I assumed that since this week’s front is approaching from the northwest there’s no way I could miss out on a good soaking rain. But the models are hinting otherwise. Most of the intense rain will form to my east after the front passes. I’ll end up with a 0.20” light shower of Friday while the Triangle will end up with 2.20”. You might think I’m joking, but just wait and see. The updated 30-day and 60-day precipitation map shows how dry the western areas of NC and SC have been compared to the east. Meh; 3 plus years of constant monsoon - this a blip I'm happy for. Still just over 3 inches for the month, and over 30 for the year, which is still above avg for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 29 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Meh; 3 plus years of constant monsoon - this a blip I'm happy for. Still just over 3 inches for the month, and over 30 for the year, which is still above avg for mby. I get it, but my 2021 garden doesn’t remember 2019 monsoons. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 I know Elsa is struggling and likely to continue to do so while dealing with shear, forward speed, and land issues, but most models do show some impact for the Carolinas. At a minimum it looks like some good rains for the area, but some models like the Canadian actually reform the center east of Florida and bring a strengthening tropical system ashore in the Carolinas. Something to watch at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 More wet ahead 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: I know Elsa is struggling and likely to continue to do so while dealing with shear, forward speed, and land issues, but most models do show some impact for the Carolinas. At a minimum it looks like some good rains for the area, but some models like the Canadian actually reform the center east of Florida and bring a strengthening tropical system ashore in the Carolinas. Something to watch at least My wife and daughter got the bright idea to run down to Myrtle Beach for a quick trip from this coming Wednesday to Friday. Not the best timing. I tried to tell her to check the forecast, but when she booked it, she said the NHC cone stopped in Georgia. (She’s a CPA and not much of a weather junkie.) I’m not sure what they’d run into driving down Wednesday afternoon and coming back Friday morning. It looks to be a fast moving system regardless. Some models showed a weakening system and clearing out for a decent Thursday at the beach. Other models showed some trouble. She can cancel, but needs to do so by late today to get a full refund. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 More wet ahead We can only hope! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 4 hours ago, strongwxnc said: We can only hope! . If the remnants of Elsa miss us to the east this will not come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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