Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

[Grayman]

Are your lawns drying out ?!

[cbmclean]

14 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Forecast looks drier and drier. May make it to may before our next rainfall. That would be less than an inch of rain imby for the month of April

At 0.93 for the month.  What a difference from this winter.

[magpiemaniac]

Well, it looks like Friday’s rain chances are slim to none now.  It only rains when it’s 33 degrees anymore.

[magpiemaniac]

Looks like the dry weather trend will continue for the next two or three weeks in much of NC and VA.  Slightly better chances for rain in SC and much of the deeper south.  We might be begging for tropical moisture before too long.  June does tend to be one of our wettest months around here, so there’s hope.

And with the severe drought out west, I dread seeing the wildfires that are likely soon.  It could get bad especially given how dry the long range precipitation forecast looks for CA, AZ, and NV.

Disease.  Famine.  Drought.  What’s next?  Rivers of blood?

[Bevo]

17 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

Disease.  Famine.  Drought.  What’s next?  Rivers of blood?

Locusts.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/16/world/brood-x-cicada-2021-scn/index.html

[magpiemaniac]

59 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Locusts.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/16/world/brood-x-cicada-2021-scn/index.html

And don’t forget food prices and gas shortages.  Things sure are going swell.  

[StormchaserChuck!]

At least you'll have a good Winter, Moderate El Nino/-QBO, the best of 8 combo's .. not. It's mechanical. You'll probably be above average. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Could we be looking at our second month in a row with under 1.00” of rain? Looking insanely dry through the period. Guess where the ridge is:

[magpiemaniac]

10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Could we be looking at our second month in a row with under 1.00” of rain? Looking insanely dry through the period. Guess where the ridge is:

How is your yard holding up?

IMBY, I’m at 1.38” of rain for April and 2.34” for May.  (Could be a lot worse.)  Here’s to hoping that a wet June comes through for us.  Like you said, the rest of May doesn’t look too promising.

[Avdave]

1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said:

How is your yard holding up?

IMBY, I’m at 1.38” of rain for April and 2.34” for May.  (Could be a lot worse.)  Here’s to hoping that a wet June comes through for us.  Like you said, the rest of May doesn’t look too promising.

1" for April here

1.47" MTD May

[nwohweather]

Man looks like the heat is going to roar in this weekend. 90s expected in Charleston

[NorthHillsWx]

9 hours ago, magpiemaniac said:

How is your yard holding up?

IMBY, I’m at 1.38” of rain for April and 2.34” for May.  (Could be a lot worse.)  Here’s to hoping that a wet June comes through for us.  Like you said, the rest of May doesn’t look too promising.

We finished April with 0.96” an are sitting at 0.82” in May so far. Yard is actually fine and I haven’t started watering as I think the lack of heat has been saving grace. Still haven’t hit 90, which looks to be ending this week. 

[cbmclean]

Yard is crispy here as have only had 1.18 since the start of April.  Besides the generally dry pattern have had bad luck with multiple chances missing by a few miles.  Very frustrating.

[yotaman]

10 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Man looks like the heat is going to roar in this weekend. 90s expected in Charleston

Low 90's expected here too. Only saving grace might be the typical sea breeze we typically get this time of the year. Looks like no rain until the end on the month also.

[buckeyefan1]

I’m not ready for 90’s   

[yotaman]

28 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I’m not ready for 90’s   

Me neither. But if the dew points can stay down, it might be a bit tolerable.

[jpbart]

19 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I’m not ready for 90’s   

Amen sister,

90's on the way and my water bill is going to be brutal.

[TradeWinds]

Models continue to bring record heat into FL next week. Both Euro and GFS have Orlando near 100 next week. GFS likely overdone but all time high in Orlando is 103.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

What the heck May?

 

 

 

[Jmoon]

Looks like several places area wide are going to hit or get close to the century mark next week in the southeast. Man what a pattern this spring. Extremely cool to cold for the 2nd spring in a row and now record breaking heat in less than a week. I was hoping we would gradually work our way to 90 this summer. Not going to happen. Not ready for 95 yet. Living here my entire life for the last 38 years i should have known better. Got spoiled with the cooler weather as of late. No good rain in sight for the next week either. We need some. Getting awfully dry out.  Let's all get ready to sweat it out until October.

[buckeyefan1]

9 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

What the heck May?

 

 

 

Insitu wedge ftw!

[magpiemaniac]

Looks like there are a few possibilities of brief rain in the next week or two, but areas that need it most—namely the SC/NC border coastal areas—still look pretty paltry.  Something tropical possible along the coast around June 8th give or take.  Something to watch.

CA, AZ, southern NV/UT, and western CO/NM still dry as Mars well into June.  That’s just a pile of kindling waiting to go up.  

[magpiemaniac]

The rain roulette wheel is spinning this week.  Best chances for rain throughout the southeast over the next few days than we’ve had in many weeks.

[jburns]

3 hours ago, magpiemaniac said:

The rain roulette wheel is spinning this week.  Best chances for rain throughout the southeast over the next few days than we’ve had in many weeks.

Even my weed yard is showing signs of distress but it is much greener than many of the “fancy” lawns around here. 

[magpiemaniac]

10 minutes ago, jburns said:

Even my weed yard is showing signs of distress but it is much greener than many of the “fancy” lawns around here. 

We’re on a well, but I’m not going to waste a lot of water on my “fancy” yard.    Right now, it would take copious amounts of water to keep it at Augusta National standards.  Just not worth wearing out my well.  I’m watering just enough to keep it slightly greenish tan.  My wife thinks I’m nuts, but that’s been the case for 27 years of marriage.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

You guys must have had a lot less rain than me. I've only had about half the amount of rain through May that I had last year  but it's still above average. After nearly 3 and a half years of nothing but rain on top of rain I have been happy for the drier past two months, though I still had nearly 5 inches last month.

[jburns]

14 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

You guys must have had a lot less rain than me. I've only had about half the amount of rain through May that I had last year  but it's still above average. After nearly 3 and a half years of nothing but rain on top of rain I have been happy for the drier past two months, though I still had nearly 5 inches last month.

Just less than 2” here.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

You guys must have had a lot less rain than me. I've only had about half the amount of rain through May that I had last year  but it's still above average. After nearly 3 and a half years of nothing but rain on top of rain I have been happy for the drier past two months, though I still had nearly 5 inches last month.

We had less than 2.5” in April and May combined. Raining today though 

[magpiemaniac]

For my backyard the next couple of days, the rain forecast from the hi-res NAM is more generous with rain (4.0”) than the vanilla NAM (0.6”) and the HRRR (1.2”).

I’ll end up with 0.1”.

[NorthHillsWx]

On 6/3/2021 at 8:48 AM, magpiemaniac said:

For my backyard the next couple of days, the rain forecast from the hi-res NAM is more generous with rain (4.0”) than the vanilla NAM (0.6”) and the HRRR (1.2”).

I’ll end up with 0.1”.

Nice forecast