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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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Just looked at the 00z euro through 240.  Canada surely cools off, but I see no real arctic invasion.  Coldest morning temps I saw were around 25 for the triad area.  That’s just pretty standard stuff.  Hoping at some point we see some legit arctic air for more than just a day or two (like the Christmas cold we just had - flash in the pan).  How do the ensembles look out in the long range (10-30 days)?
TW

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57 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Just looked at the 00z euro through 240.  Canada surely cools off, but I see no real arctic invasion.  Coldest morning temps I saw were around 25 for the triad area.  That’s just pretty standard stuff.  Hoping at some point we see some legit arctic air for more than just a day or two (like the Christmas cold we just had - flash in the pan).  How do the ensembles look out in the long range (10-30 days)?
TW

Heard on the MA forum that 00Z EPS is disastrous past about Day 7.  06Z GEFS looked great, but someone said 12Z caved to the EPS.  Still awaiting confirmation.

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I am considering a project to amuse me and perhaps improve my coding and weather skills.  I would really like to keep track of the various ensemble predictions for temperatures as they change day to day.  Does anyone know where I can access numerical data for GEFS temperature outputs for say RDU from day 1 to Day 15?  I would love to have all the ensemble members available so I could plot a mean and a spread.

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After yetsterdays debacle I believe we might have some radio silence.  Nothing really to look at on Euro and Gfs shows potential until all the lows turn into cutters. The “great pattern” does not look so great. I’m tired boss I’m real tired. 

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah all this blocking is really leading to nothing. All the cold air is on the other side of the globe. And when Canada becomes really cold again everything will dump into the west.

Yep I'm worried we may be losing out on a super blocking-NAO with little to talk about due to the lack of cold air. And if this was a Nino can you imagine the subtropical jet? It would decide to finally have a -NAO with a moderate Nina

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8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yep I'm worried we may be losing out on a super blocking-NAO with little to talk about due to the lack of cold air. And if this was a Nino can you imagine the subtropical jet? It would decide to finally have a -NAO with a moderate Nina

I mean we are very early in winter but the MJO can wreak havoc on the pattern along with a cluster of other things. We will see but this has been the talk over the course of the past week or two. 

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13 hours ago, Met1985 said:

I mean we are very early in winter but the MJO can wreak havoc on the pattern along with a cluster of other things. We will see but this has been the talk over the course of the past week or two. 

Very early in winter? Winter is halfway over. Met winter is what counts. In NC, winter for all intents and purposes ends March 1 except for very anomalous events.

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47 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Very early in winter? Winter is halfway over. Met winter is what counts. In NC, winter for all intents and purposes ends March 1 except for very anomalous events.

In the mountains, we have snow in March as a general rule, especially where Met1985 is,  and many times April. I can't speak for other areas of North Carolina.

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