WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: FWIW the RGEM absolutely nailed the temps for the prior event at similar lead time: Here is what it is currently showing for the Thursday system: Hmmm that’s outlier cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, CaryWx said: Frozen Fountain Inn Lol. I think the icon actually did fairly well with surface temps on the last event. Seems slightly colder and “wedgier” this go round. Definitely keeps parts of the triangle as ice through most of the event. CAD regions would have a major ice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Lol. I think the icon actually did fairly well with surface temps on the last event. Seems slightly colder and “wedgier” this go round. Definitely keeps parts of the triangle as ice through most of the event. CAD regions would have a major ice event The ICON nailed the snow that we got in Catawba County on Feb 6th and stayed consistent for 7-8 runs in a row. Its been consistently showing this now for 4-5 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On the subject of the NAM, it has surface temps in the mid 30’s and dew points in the lower to mid 20’s Thursday morning. It just doesn’t have hardly any precip. The wet bulb temps are there for an ice storm. As was said above, don’t trust the precip on the NAM. It’s very likely underdone. But don’t be fooled by the surface temps depicted sans precip. If it’s raining at that time as I believe it will be, it will be below freezing much of central and western N.C. with that thermal look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, WXNewton said: The ICON nailed the snow that we got in Catawba County on Feb 6th and stayed consistent for 7-8 runs in a row. Its been consistently showing this now for 4-5 runs. It’s either onto something or going down with the ship for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I can’t remember seeing CAA come in through the midlands and upstate in a long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 RGEM (which did very well on profiles for the this weekend) and Icon (which nailed the snow event consistently just before that) are fully on board. NAM (which has also performed quite well this year) is hinting around it, but still not quite home. That said, we're still in fairly extreme NAM range until midday tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: On the subject of the NAM, it has surface temps in the mid 30’s and dew points in the lower to mid 20’s Thursday morning. It just doesn’t have hardly any precip. The wet bulb temps are there for an ice storm. As was said above, don’t trust the precip on the NAM. It’s very likely underdone. But don’t be fooled by the surface temps depicted sans precip. If it’s raining at that time as I believe it will be, it will be below freezing much of central and western N.C. with that thermal look It’s been oddly dry here as of late and then corrects itself 18-24 before kickoff or at least trends toward globals qpf output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18z gfs isn’t quite there yet. Baby steps as temps are 3 degrees colder with a stronger wedge a bit further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This is looking really bad for mby unless guidance changes... we just had our worst ICE Storm in years and now this possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18z GFS trying to come in with a front end thump of snow in Foothills and Mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: 18z GFS trying to come in with a front end thump of snow in Foothills and Mountains. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 30 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: The Euro and other models are close to doing this as well. Something to watch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 No matter how you slice it danville again in the crosshairs. Strong signal from what I've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM barely gets it above freezing Wednesday in the mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: NAM barely gets it above freezing Wednesday in the mountains Nam def trended more suppressive at 42 on 0z and much more in line with globals thus far. HP about 1mb weaker from 1034 to 1033. Another thing to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Nam def trended more suppressive at 42 on 0z and much more in line with globals thus far. HP about 1mb weaker from 1034 to 1033. Another thing to watch. 1035 at 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmoon Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: NAM barely gets it above freezing Wednesday in the mountains Looks like it's setting the stage. Hopefully some snow and sleet on the front end but somebody is going to get a major ice storm out of this one as it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Definitely less amped than last run and closer to track of the Euro, still a bit further north, more sleet showing this run near @Buddy1987 and along the escarpment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: Definitely less amped than last run and closer to track of the Euro, still a bit further north Last 5 frames on 5h have def trended south because of the confluence and then the LP/SW north of Michigan/western Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I’m a big believer in those 925 temps in an ice storm and if you believe the 3K NAM, many of us are in for a world of hurt. The 12K NAM is a blast furnace at that level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3K and 12K for comparisons sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 There’s no wonder why IP shows up for places like Reidsville and Yanceyville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This would be devastating here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: This would be devastating here catawba/iredell/davie county would be out of power for a week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 0z 12k NAM ... ouch Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 16 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This would be devastating here Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 27 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This would be devastating here 18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z 12k NAM ... ouch Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Boy I can’t help but think when looking more specifically at the 3k Nam a Bruce Willis Armageddon scene out this way with huge chunks of asteroid type hail balls falling from the sky looking at soundings and then 850s/2m’s. The sleet would be epic out this way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tealsnowball Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Boy I can’t help but think when looking more specifically at the 3k Nam a Bruce Willis Armageddon scene out this way with huge chunks of asteroid type hail balls falling from the sky looking at soundings and then 850s/2m’s. The sleet would be epic out this way. Definitely looks like sleet city in our neck of the woods. What is the rain to sleet ratio again? Is it for every inch of rain it's 2 or 3 inches of sleet? It makes me wonder what the record for sleet is in one storm. Anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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