HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: We don't really have a lot of time for much more trending really do we? There's still time on the southern periphery for some trends (in either direction). Not talking about whole-scale changes. The setup is the setup. This has been apparent for the past week. Once this HP get's far enough east, we will get in on the Ice eventually ("we" being the southern VA/western/central NC). 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: There's still time on the southern periphery for some trends (in either direction). Not talking about whole-scale changes. The setup is the setup. This has been apparent for the past week. Once this HP get's far enough east, we will get on the Ice eventually (we being the southern VA/western/central NC) I hope not. Unless the ice is sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Can anyone post the 00z Euro ice map for comparison? TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Also of note, the timing of the heaviest icing seems to be in the early morning hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Ride the NAM and short term models here guys. Never trust a global with CAD (especially this year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Verbatim the Euro keeps mby at 34 and a cold miserable rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 39 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Can anyone post the 00z Euro ice map for comparison? TW 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Draw a line from Henderson to hickory. NW of that line is a high probability warning event. Go 1-2 counties south of that line and you’re in the grey area. That’s how you forecast 90% of CAD ice events in NC and this is no exception Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Draw a line from Henderson to hickory. NW of that line is a high probability warning event. Go 1-2 counties south of that line and you’re in the grey area. That’s how you forecast 90% of CAD ice events in NC and this is no exception Pretty much this. NAM only gets those areas down to 30-32 which isn't good enough for a high end event. Raleigh may touch 32 briefly but mainly 33-36. wash, rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Eric Webb: this trend of a slower SE Canada vortex flattens/suppresses the height field over the E US, shifting the track of the next storm later this week SEward w/ a relatively narrower rain-snow transition zone/less ice overall as mid-upper level forcing for descent weakens. https://t.co/rkMKzj8jq8 https://t.co/ntVYmcMLpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, msuwx said: Nice little 40-50 Mile Jog South although I think maybe just a bit flatter than a Trend idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, PantherJustin said: Nice little 40-50 Mile Jog South although I think maybe just a bit flatter than a Trend idk Disaster for Winston-Salem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 48 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Eric Webb: this trend of a slower SE Canada vortex flattens/suppresses the height field over the E US, shifting the track of the next storm later this week SEward w/ a relatively narrower rain-snow transition zone/less ice overall as mid-upper level forcing for descent weakens. https://t.co/rkMKzj8jq8 https://t.co/ntVYmcMLpc kick that sucker a bit further south so we can get some sleet in here. Don't need another lights out storm within 5 days of the first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Nam looks to have a little better of a push of cold air at 45-48 as well as suppression looking a tad better if you want wintry weather in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18z NAM keeps the upstate firmly locked in the wedge for Tuesday and keeps the threat of severe confined to the coastal counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18Z NAM looks almost identical to ECMWF, perhaps less QPF... but placement looks similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The NAMs low track differs wildly from the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The NAM has a miller b and the Euro keeps it miller a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Temps still don't look great on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM is dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: NAM is dry Its because it's a miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM has a solid trend towards a stronger wedge (especially note the escarpment/foothills of NC/SC/NE GA). However, not too sure I'd pay much attention to the NAM precip fields this far out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I agree. Need to get the NAM within 48 hours or so. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Same trend on the euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18z ICON if anything is just a touch colder. Keeps CAD areas of NC aob freezing the entire event. I'm not buying it, but it does have me paying attention. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 FWIW the RGEM absolutely nailed the temps for the prior event at similar lead time: Here is what it is currently showing for the Thursday system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18z ICON is a couple degrees colder imby. Gives me 2.5” of rain with the temperature at 31-32 Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Frozen Fountain Inn 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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