weatherlover Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Yea, even if you slice that into 1/4th it’s .3-.5” This will never verify south of 1-40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Can you provide some guidance on how you read that sounding and how you know it is sleet? The warm nose looks awfully warm and thick. Thanks in advance. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherlover said: This will never verify south of 1-40 This needs an explanation as to why 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, weatherlover said: This will never verify south of 1-40 Of course 1.25” isn’t gonna verify anywhere Jmo. But why slicing it to 1/10-1/4” not verify based off that look?IF your Along and NW of 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, weatherlover said: History repeats itself! If you can’t back up a statement, please refrain from posting opinions in the discussion thread without anything to back it up. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Can you provide some guidance on how you read that sounding and how you know it is sleet? The warm nose looks awfully warm and thick. Thanks in advance. TW Yea that’s freezing rain fo sho. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 All last week most folks were saying that the signal for the mid-week storm looked stronger than the weekend systems. We've known all along there would be something to track this week. It doesn't look like it will be snow, but still have a system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12z UKMET not there yet but has trended pretty far south with temps the past 3 runs, its more in the GFS/EURO camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 40 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Can you provide some guidance on how you read that sounding and how you know it is sleet? The warm nose looks awfully warm and thick. Thanks in advance. TW 900-925mb area is below freezing with all three indicators. That's the sleet zone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: 900-925mb area is below freezing with all three indicators. That's the sleet zone. Thanks. That really helps us understand how to detect a sleet sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I don't know that I've ever seen this much overcast at one time over the continental US 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, CaryWx said: 900-925mb area is below freezing with all three indicators. That's the sleet zone. 900-925mb area is definitely colder than the last event further into SW va and W N.C. Not only for sleet, but this region is important for freezing rain and getting the “super cooled” droplets there produce less runoff and more ice accrual. I would say the favored CAD regions may actually be in line for a deeper wedge this go round. That’s also reflected in the sub freezing surface air bleeding much further south into the upstate. This past storm was a marginal setup that was able to produce damaging ice totals through duration and light precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I don't know that I've ever seen this much overcast at one time over the continental US Atmospheric terrorism. Gotta be the Russians. Notice how the cloud coverage stops in Central America? Dead give away. We protest. This would be an awesome animation to see for this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Whoever's on the southern extent of the wedge (Right now looks like northern NC/Southern VA), most likely will get a crippling icestorm (.75+ ZR accrual). I would need to pull the bufkit soundings, but that same area from Roxboro to MTV to GSO looks bad. I'd be buying batteries/etc right now if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I've noticed the last few euro runs have each trended a bit cooler and drier for NC before the Thursday storm. Think this run may be more icy than last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Hr 60 Euro keeping precip confined more along the gulf coast than the previous 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The temperature at Asheville at 00Z Thursday is 35 and dewpoint is 21.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Hr 66 dropped HKY 3 degrees from last night. Again I think globals will trend toward mesoscale as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This run is definitely a bit colder and more icy for NC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, WXNewton said: Hr 66 dropped HKY 3 degrees from last night. Again I think globals will trend toward mesoscale as we get closer. These setups are where mesoscale models shine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Hr. 72 Euro much further south with wedge than previous runs, freezing rain down into Lincoln County this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Even the snow line is pushing closer and closer to western NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 One reason this Euro run is better is it keeps the low track further south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: One reason this Euro run is better is it keeps the low track further south Looks like it wants to track the low right around the bottom of the wedge, if that's the case I have a very hard time buying the wedge lifting out as quickly as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 When you have the globals onboard this far out and mostly aligning with your mesoscale modeling, you need to start getting prepared in the CAD areas. Classic setup and honestly not that difficult to forecast. It’s the areas outside the most prone CAD regions that are in question as to how far the freezing line will establish itself but if you had bad ice from the last storm I’d take pause with what looks like models are converging on 72 hours our... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: When you have the globals onboard this far out and mostly aligning with your mesoscale modeling, you need to start getting prepared in the CAD areas. Classic setup and honestly not that difficult to forecast. It’s the areas outside the most prone CAD regions that are in question as to how far the freezing line will establish itself but if you had bad ice from the last storm I’d take pause with what looks like models are converging on 72 hours our... Yea if you just look at the overall pattern at 48 - 72 hours on the euro (500mb/SLP), it's pretty classic looking. From an IMBY perspective, I'm not sure how RDU will fair at this point. We would need the cooler trends to continue to get anything more than advisory criteria ice. That said, the more classic CAD areas look good for WSW and Icestorm Warning criteria ice. Ground zero looks like MTV/DAN area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Does anyone have zr totals from the Euro? We can somewhat guestimate, but that is a bit difficult around the edges and where sleet may mix in. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, HKY_WX said: Yea if you just look at the overall pattern at 48 - 72 hours on the euro (500mb/SLP), it's pretty classic looking. From a IMBY perspective, I'm not sure how RDU will fair at this point. We would need the cooler trends to continue to get anything more than advisory criteria ice. That said, the more classic CAD areas look good for WSW and Icestorm Warning criteria ice. We don't really have a lot of time for much more trending really do we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Can anyone post the 00z Euro ice map for comparison? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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