Jwisephoto Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Im right there at 1.19... this would be devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 So now we have the ICON, Canadian, RGEM all showing a prolonged ice storm with the wedge holding in the CAD region for the entire storm. The NAM is still a major storm for many but moisture looks less, GFS is a major ice storm but not as far south as other guidance as well as the EURO. In my opinion models will continue to get a better handle on the wedge as today and tomorrow storm leaves the region. There is a ton of cold air to work with and timing looks to be setting up nicely as the high pressure system slides right into a favorable spot and strengths before the moisture flows into our region. Global models have been trending colder for this storm, but I think the mesoscale models will lead the way starting today and tomorrow. I think the biggest takeaway from this setup would be that all models are in agreement of a 1036-1038 high sitting in a favorable spot that historically produces ice storms in VA, NC and even upstate SC. The ingredients are there for a major ice storm over a greater area compared to Saturday's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Is this a reliable model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherlover said: Is this a reliable model? In my opinion it runs colder at the surface than any other model, I would say the NAM did a better job of Saturday's system inside 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 33 minutes ago, WXNewton said: So now we have the ICON, Canadian, RGEM all showing a prolonged ice storm with the wedge holding in the CAD region for the entire storm. The NAM is still a major storm for many but moisture looks less, GFS is a major ice storm but not as far south as other guidance as well as the EURO. In my opinion models will continue to get a better handle on the wedge as today and tomorrow storm leaves the region. There is a ton of cold air to work with and timing looks to be setting up nicely as the high pressure system slides right into a favorable spot and strengths before the moisture flows into our region. Global models have been trending colder for this storm, but I think the mesoscale models will lead the way starting today and tomorrow. I think the biggest takeaway from this setup would be that all models are in agreement of a 1036-1038 high sitting in a favorable spot that historically produces ice storms in VA, NC and even upstate SC. The ingredients are there for a major ice storm over a greater area compared to Saturday's system. I agree, but what are we missing? Local guys all saying Rain and some talking severe .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, PantherJustin said: I agree, but what are we missing? Local guys all saying Rain and some talking severe .... Probably what it will end up being. Another 33-35 and rain for most. Maybe another decent ice event towards the NC/VA line but a cold miserable rain for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 21 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: I agree, but what are we missing? Local guys all saying Rain and some talking severe .... We are just now getting into the short range guidance time-frame. I think if runs continue to show this threat and increase the chances today and tomorrow they will change their tune some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The NAM is better at depicting the BL but don't rely on it for QPF when looking at the next ice potential. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, eyewall said: The NAM is better at depicting the BL but don't rely on it for QPF when looking at the next ice potential. Seems like the NAM has been underdone on qpf since it underwent its upgrade. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Seems like the NAM has been underdone on qpf since it underwent its upgrade. Yep noticed this on Saturday's storm, it dried up a lot in the 36-48 hour time-frame and then trended wetter and wetter to play catch-up under 36 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I know this is salt in the wound to many but below is the US snow cover map as of 06 UTC 02/15/21. It shows 70.49% coverage. Will likely increase today as Mississippi and Tennessee fill in more. This is historical territory. Previous record is 70.9% on Jan 12, 2011. 1966 and 1978 also were in the 70% range. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: I know this is salt in the wound to many but below is the US snow cover map as of 06 UTC 02/15/21. It shows 70.49% coverage. Will likely increase today as Mississippi and Tennessee fill in more. This is historical territory. Previous record is 70.9% on Jan 12, 2011. 1966 and 1978 also were in the 70% range. The western Dakotas are even angrier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: The western Dakotas are even angrier I have a friend who lives in SD. He’s delighted. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 21 minutes ago, eyewall said: The NAM is better at depicting the BL but don't rely on it for QPF when looking at the next ice potential. Agreed.... I’ve always thought NAM Thermals were superior in these parts for CAD, but about useless otherwise Jmo. Most Times you could just avg the EURO/GFS QPF Cut that avg in 1/2 and use NAM Thermals and be in the ballpark 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Crazy to think it’s been 4 days locked in the 30’s with precipitation each day but not a single flake. For the Wednesday/Thursday event, it looks like the same areas will get hit. Retreating HPs mean areas outside the absolute max CAD regions will quickly go to rain. Also, just like last event, 32 does not mean efficient freezing rain especially with the gigantic and deep warm nose above the ground. I agree another significant ice storm looks likely and it may very well have the same footprint as last time. Never forecast against climo for marginal ice events. I’ll speak for myself and the rest of us in the Triangle who have seen more 33 degrees and rain in the last week than anyone would like to see in a lifetime: please kick this pattern please 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Crazy to think it’s been 4 days locked in the 30’s with precipitation each day but not a single flake. For the Wednesday/Thursday event, it looks like the same areas will get hit. Retreating HPs mean areas outside the absolute max CAD regions will quickly go to rain. Also, just like last event, 32 does not mean efficient freezing rain especially with the gigantic and deep warm nose above the ground. I agree another significant ice storm looks likely and it may very well have the same footprint as last time. Never forecast against climo for marginal ice events. I’ll speak for myself and the rest of us in the Triangle who have seen more 33 degrees and rain in the last week than anyone would like to see in a lifetime: please kick this pattern please Here ya go. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Crazy to think it’s been 4 days locked in the 30’s with precipitation each day but not a single flake. For the Wednesday/Thursday event, it looks like the same areas will get hit. Retreating HPs mean areas outside the absolute max CAD regions will quickly go to rain. Also, just like last event, 32 does not mean efficient freezing rain especially with the gigantic and deep warm nose above the ground. I agree another significant ice storm looks likely and it may very well have the same footprint as last time. Never forecast against climo for marginal ice events. I’ll speak for myself and the rest of us in the Triangle who have seen more 33 degrees and rain in the last week than anyone would like to see in a lifetime: please kick this pattern please Honestly I would take a torch at this point since we are not getting any snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Honestly I would take a torch at this point since we are not getting any snow. A torch and a dry period to get a head start on yard work. My yard is in the worst condition since I’ve owned this house. Watching the weather channel and Monroe, La has had 2 4”+ events since January and it’s currently snowing and 17 degrees. Ugh. This was the real deal arctic blast and just missed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: A torch and a dry period to get a head start on yard work. My yard is in the worst condition since I’ve owned this house. Watching the weather channel and Monroe, La has had 2 4”+ events since January and it’s currently snowing and 17 degrees. Ugh. This was the real deal arctic blast and just missed us. Yep we can thank the mountains for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Anyone wishing for ice should think twice Southside Electric Cooperative in southern Virginia this morning still has 77% of their customers out this morning 48 hours after the event. Their area was torn up by ice Our lineman need a break. They work harder than any NFL Lineman ever does. Jacking and restringing wire and establishing equipotential grounding zones around the lineman to protect them from generator back feeds is tedious hard work. https://poweroutage.us/area/state/virginia 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12z NAM looks pretty close to 6z. According to the NAM the High pressure is not really retreating like we've seen in storms before. It basically provides a NE flow for most of the storm, I mean it takes 12-14 hrs to move from NW PA to NH. Actually the high strengthens from a 1033-1037 over this time period. To me a retreating high would be exiting much faster than whats being shown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yep we can thank the mountains for that. Yeah too much of a good thing. This pattern can suck it. One of the biggest disappointments in recent years with blocking and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yep we can thank the mountains for that. Yeah too much of a good thing. This pattern can suck it. One of the biggest disappointments in recent years with blocking and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Met1985 said: Yeah too much of a good thing. This pattern can suck it. One of the biggest disappointments in recent years with blocking and such. Most definitely the worst stretch of being so close yet so far away I have ever experienced here with days of cold rain rubbing in the salt. I hate having to wait all the way until next winter for another shot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said: I know this is salt in the wound to many but below is the US snow cover map as of 06 UTC 02/15/21. It shows 70.49% coverage. Will likely increase today as Mississippi and Tennessee fill in more. This is historical territory. Previous record is 70.9% on Jan 12, 2011. 1966 and 1978 also were in the 70% range. Snow is overdone in southern vA and most of NoVA. It’s mostly brown ground north of Fredericksburg to DC, and south of Petersburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 GFS says the threats come back next weekend (3/1 or so). TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 34 minutes ago, eyewall said: Honestly I would take a torch at this point since we are not getting any snow. I would prefer cold and dry to torch or cold and wet/icy. But after an entire winter of cold and wet, even I would be happy for torch now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: GFS says the threats come back next weekend (3/1 or so). TW Uh huh, GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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