Alfoman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 18Z GFS similar to 12Z but a tad bit slower with the progression of the shortwave as it interacts with the northern energy. Also a few degrees colder at the surface for the Piedmont, but obviously still too warm for most. It is unfortunate this seems like a daytime event too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 18z GFSV16 continues to advertise snow event for mountains and foothills on Monday. Still tons of uncertainty with the system. The EPS doesn’t agree with the 12z euro op run. Definitely a legitimate threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Looks like it's similar to this weeks storm, not enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 The 00Z Euro shows something I have never seen here and more like the plains- It has Asheville getting down to 10 degrees or colder on Sunday night then rain/mix less than 8 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Still not convinced Monday/Tuesday event moves through the Tenn. valley. It certainly could, we'll see. Regardless, there will be other opportunities ahead. Only wished we had more cold on our side of the hemisphere. GSP AFD: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off GFS 06: https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 CMC still likes the Monday event with some significant accums through the foothills and western piedmont into central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 33 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: CMC still likes the Monday event with some significant accums through the foothills and western piedmont into central VA. Winston-Salem included? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: Still not convinced Monday/Tuesday event moves through the Tenn. valley. It certainly could, we'll see. Regardless, there will be other opportunities ahead. Only wished we had more cold on our side of the hemisphere. GSP AFD: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off GFS 06: https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area# I agree with you and the 12z GFS just essentially lost the system at the surface. The combination of just too many pieces of energy flying around and the northern stream confluence is causing these models to struggle immensely. But the cold just is not there for us to tap into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 240hr depiction on today's GFS run is a thing of beauty. Ridging out west, west-based greenland block.. stationary arctic blocking... Second half of January looks good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 240hr depiction on today's GFS run is a thing of beauty. Ridging out west, west-based greenland block.. stationary arctic blocking... Second half of January looks good. It has some bone chilling runs lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 240hr depiction on today's GFS run is a thing of beauty. Ridging out west, west-based greenland block.. stationary arctic blocking... Second half of January looks good. I appreciate your optimism burrel! I have become to cynical I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: I appreciate your optimism burrel! I have become to cynical I guess. No reason to be down! We're gonna see flakes flying tomorrow; that's a win. Especially considering we're only a week in to January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Euro isn't an app runner this run. It's more of a weak system with some light snow in the mtns and light rain elsewhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 NAM finally in range for Monday's system (take with a grain of salt because it is the long range NAM). GFS is still much flatter with the h5 vort with little northern stream interaction. LA/TN/MS/AL could score in the morning hours (if the NAM is correct) but that warm air advection ahead of the surface low + daytime heating is going to be a killer combo for the piedmont with no good source of cold air. Still time with this one though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Alfoman said: NAM finally in range for Monday's system (take with a grain of salt because it is the long range NAM). GFS is still much flatter with the h5 vort with little northern stream interaction. LA/TN/MS/AL could score in the morning hours (if the NAM is correct) but that warm air advection ahead of the surface low + daytime heating is going to be a killer combo for the piedmont with no good source of cold air. Still time with this one though Man that looks rock solid for us. Snow down to middle MS and AL, just right there, and a high in PA. How does that not track east and get us? This is crazy stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Man that looks rock solid for us. Snow down to middle MS and AL, just right there, and a high in PA. How does that not track east and get us? This is crazy stuff. If that high stays to our north and doesn’t slide to leave a weakness, that low pressure will not plow into it. I haven’t had any time to take a close look at it to see what’s going on, so if anyone else has a chance I’d love to hear the rundown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 6 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Man that looks rock solid for us. Snow down to middle MS and AL, just right there, and a high in PA. How does that not track east and get us? This is crazy stuff. That does look awfully good for my backyard. Too bad it’ll change by tonight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Nam is bullish on the next storm! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Nam is bullish on the next storm! I like where the Low pressure is centered. The 1028 high, not so much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 27 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Nam is bullish on the next storm! Yep. Looks interesting for sure. A great track by the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 That would be the biggest snow in Northwest AL/Northeast MS in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Gfs actually phases this upcoming storm but surface reflection looks weak. Definitely something that can beef up as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Another big storm showing around inauguration day. Something to watch given the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Awesome awesome cold air look at the end of the GFS run. Classic cold air transport from the arctic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 If the Euro is correct then it's going to dry out some finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Keep a lazy eye on next weekend. Euro was close to something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 hours ago, franklin NCwx said: Nam is bullish on the next storm! I'm gun shy after this 4-8 turned in to 1/2 inch 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Tacoma said: I'm gun shy after this 4-8 turned in to 1/2 inch Man it's really too bad that 1028 got pushed out. Pretty sure that was the 1030 in PA. I haven't looked but I am guessing there was no 50/50 low to help anchor it in place. If that high would just hold on in PA this could have been beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 4 hours ago, ILMRoss said: Keep a lazy eye on next weekend. Euro was close to something. I surely hope so after this bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 European has big trough next weekend so something may develop given the synoptic set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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