Hammer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Lol thanks for taking it in jest. I don't even know you but couldn't pass up the joke. Awesome!!!. Pro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 You would think this look would be a precursor to a winter storm in the carolinas.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Close call with ice number 1,000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 If that last storm late next week does take a true miller A track it may be the best threat of any of these systems the past week. The cold will be rotting by then but it's still plenty cold enough just to our north and west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: If that last storm late next week does take a true miller A track it may be the best threat of any of these systems the past week. The cold will be rotting by then but it's still plenty cold enough just to our north and west Yeah definitely a threat to pay attention to, hopefully Monday's storm will help the trough axis swing more to the east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 21 minutes ago, wncsnow said: You would think this look would be a precursor to a winter storm in the carolinas.. Wow, most of us would have put money on that kind of setup. Simply amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: You would think this look would be a precursor to a winter storm in the carolinas.. Oh what I wouldn't do for a southern slider in that setup... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Lol thanks for taking it in jest. I don't even know you but couldn't pass up the joke. When somebody lobs you a fat one, you hit it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, SnowDawg said: Oh what I wouldn't do for a southern slider in that setup... HP too weak and it retreats . Marginal cold all winter is tough to watch . Lots of cold 100 miles north and west of nc but will not budge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 hours ago, Grayman said: HP too weak and it retreats . Marginal cold all winter is tough to watch . Lots of cold 100 miles north and west of nc but will not budge Yeah our region is pretty much going to be the only one without anything more than a minor hit this year. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Big Ice storm being advertised for Thursday. 1040 HP sitting in Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Surprised no one is talking about the next ICE Threat next Thursday. Although it looks like an ICE TO RAIN scenario, there could be significant ICE again for the same areas that just got this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 And ninja'd by NCSNOW lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Surprised no one is talking about the next ICE Threat next Thursday. Although it looks like an ICE TO RAIN scenario, there could be significant ICE again for the same areas that just got this one I was blessed with this one temp was 33-34 a lot of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Surprised no one is talking about the next ICE Threat next Thursday. Although it looks like an ICE TO RAIN scenario, there could be significant ICE again for the same areas that just got this one And like today, RAH will issue a WSW after the ice has knocked out power to tens of thousands. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 It ends before change over. A 1040 HP sitting where models show is a recipe for a hard face slap in the frzng rn dept. We all know Cad will be deeper futher south as we get closer to thursday on models. This will be like last night on a ne wind,not se wind like those other minor insitu, hybird deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Big Ice storm being advertised for Thursday. 1040 HP sitting in Maine Negative ghostrider. Since when do you ever see ice across that large of a region and on both sides of the apps?? Can we just shut down the models until the planes start flying again? Or maybe start using carrier pigeons with weather sensors, or drones, or kids birthday balloons that get launched from Chuck E Cheeses parking lots. Anything to get better data for pete's sake. This torture must end!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Negative ghostrider. Since when do you ever see ice across that large of a region and on both sides of the apps?? Can we just shut down the models until the planes start flying again? Or maybe start using carrier pigeons with weather sensors, or drones, or kids birthday balloons that get launched from Chuck E Cheeses parking lots. Anything to get better data for pete's sake. This torture must end!! when you got a tpv parked on the other side of the apps western GL causing snow down to south texas and LA. Then you have a 1040 HP in Maine,almost Banana HP. Storm rides up apps where shallow cold air boundary cant cross over. We get waa over top of stout CAD from HP in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 0z Canadian wed. This look use to be a slam dunk snow NC. LP will ride western spine of apps where artic boundary is. See if HP builds into Maine region here and funnels CAD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Right on que,just like the gfs. Lp is getting ready to roll North,HP sliding into NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Bingo. That K vegas is how you get ice both sides of the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: when you got a tpv parked on the other side of the apps western GL causing snow down to south texas and LA. Then you have a 1040 HP in Maine,almost Banana HP. Storm rides up apps where shallow cold air boundary cant cross over. We get waa over top of stout CAD from HP in NE. Dude, you may single handedly pull a rabbit out of a hat while nobody is looking. Keep it up. Now, can you get Dogecoin to the moon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said: Dude, you may single handedly pull a rabbit out of a hat while nobody is looking. Keep it up. IT aint a rabbit. Some of the folks this frzng rn is about to splatter are sitting in the dark tonight. Snow is another story 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Eff. That.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 hours ago, NCSNOW said: Yeah i guess its time to buy a ups and lte failover router I still dont have internet in Greensboro since mid day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 0z Euro was futher north with HP, and Thursday ice was confined to VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The 0Z GFS looks concerning. The combination of super saturated ground, significant icing, and strong winds as shown would be disastrous for much of the northern foothills and piedmont of NC into southside Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GSP is more interested in the severe aspect for both Tuesday and Thursday. Although Tuesday appears that we are locked into the wedge enough to have any severe weather to the east. .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM Sun: WAA still looks to continue unabated over the CWA through Monday, and accordingly CAD looks to remain pretty well locked in for another day. The warm front however will carry the best isentropic lift and moisture to our north, so we may get a partial lull in precip. However, the deep and mature upper trough will start to move in our direction by the end of the day, and accordingly upper divergence and DPVA will ramp up at that time, so PoPs surge upward again in the late afternoon and evening. A frontal wave should spin up near the central Gulf Coast and track northeast; deterministic models have come into better agreement on the low passing east of the Appalachians. In light of the very strong low-level shear parameters afforded by the likely 60-kt 850mb jet crossing invof the low, and sfc theta-e progs from every consulted model aside from the 12km NAM and 3km NAM, a small HSLC threat would evolve south of the wedge boundary if it were able to retreat. The NAMs both maintain the wedge, and their prog soundings show the inversion remaining quite strong over practically the whole CWA until after the low and shear are gone. The other models do peel the wedge back as far as about one tier of counties into the CWA, so we won`t absolutely rule HSLC activity out; we`ve had many close calls in this kind of setup. Seeing the NAM plots, though, overall it is looking pretty unlikely any threat late Monday night or early Tuesday will make it up into our area. The bigger story probably will be near-record PWATs and an unseasonably deep warm-cloud layer, which may make for a brief heavy rain threat across a portion of the area. Most of the models also depict favorable mid to upper level lapse rates and decent MUCAPE at inversion level. That said, antecedent conditions and streamflows aren`t particularly concerning for a flash flood risk, but it is another aspect of the event to consider. The passage of the low should bring the cold front through the area and CAA should finally erode the wedge Tuesday. Temps fall below freezing in some of the higher mountain elevations by daybreak. A very low-end upslope precip event could occur in some of the more favored spots, but strong subsidence with the incoming sfc high will make for a shallow moist layer. Furthermore winds look likely to be closer to W than NW, and both the winds and moisture diminish before colder air can settle in later in the day. While temps will end up being colder Tuesday for the majority of the mountains owing to the CAA, the wedge could erode, and if this happens early enough in the day, temps might manage to approach 60 in some of the Piedmont. The wedge is so strong on the NAM that it only shows a rebound into the 40s, and the ECMWF MOS only shows lower to mid-50s. Thinking it will be best to go close to the 50th percentile of guidance for Tue maxes. Mins Tue night will fall back to near climo. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Sun: Dry high pressure will shift toward the East Coast and move back into position for hybrid CAD. This round will develop not unlike the CAD episode earlier in the week, as upper trough amplifies over the central CONUS, warm front activates across the Southeast, and diabatic cooling results with onset of precip, most likely Wednesday night. There are a couple of key differences compared to the CAD earlier in the week; the "fresh" high will be colder to begin with, so there will likely will be some wintry mix (largely FZRA) in the colder northern mountains/foothills and possibly far northern NC Piedmont. The sfc low looks to pass the area at a more favorable time of day for severe wx, being timed between 18z and 06z. Also, the upper trough driving the low is stronger and low level flow will be more meridional. But so far the sfc plots fall into the same camps as they once did for the early-week event--the GFS is the only one of the deterministic models eroding the wedge enough to put any but our southeastern fringe at risk for sfc-based convection. Wondering if it will trend toward the Euro/Canadian as it has done for the earlier week event. For now, have biased temps in favor of established CAD Wed night and Thursday, and think it is too early to raise any alarm for severe wx in e.g. the HWO, although it certainly bears watching. PoPs should taper off and skies clear Friday behind the low and its trailing cold front. Temps will fall to snowy temperatures near the TN/NC border. The northwest-flow snow potential does look reasonably good, owing to pretty cold BL temps and orthogonal winds across the mountains. There is some indication that could continue into Friday night. The weekend is looking pretty nice, if not a little chilly with temps a few degrees below normal. Anything will seem nice after basically a week of CAD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Definitely looks like another traditional CAD area storm. As sick as I am of rain, I'll continue taking it over that stuff. Unless this trends differently, I don't see anything (currently) to track for my area for the next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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