Orangeburgwx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2018 redux but ice instead of snowSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, CaryWx said: Just now, CaryWx said: A lot will change in the coming days... probably not be as severe as showing now the closer we get to the event.. time will tell 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, ObiWanKarlNobi said: Longtime lurker here. I just registered an account so I could ask a question. You guys seem to be taking this storm way more seriously then anything else this winter. Am I correct in thinking that there is higher confidence than usual that this will pan out? Should I start preparing for an ice storm and a multi-day power outage? It has the highest potential to be a significant winter storm given the pattern and cold available of anything this season. Also, CAD events are more prevalent here and usually our “specialty.” Potential doesn’t verify to winter storms all the time. I’d probably wait a couple days to prepare as we’re still in the infancy of the cad solution but I’d definitely keep it on your radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 45 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: If this comes to pass, I look forward to watching the northern transplants in Raleigh attempt to drive to work on ZR at 20 degrees... "'Cause they are used to that up north...." No offense to northern transplants in Raleigh who view this board (you're obviously excluded) Aint that the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 boatload of sleet for the triangle next tues this gsf run...and yes still zr too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 CMC has decent snows up this way next Tuesday. GFS had the storm to with more ICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 This run is more realistic to what I think could happen with a high in that position and of that strength. Snow to sleet from GSP to RDU with freezing rain from Columbia to Greenville, NC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 CMC depicts a nice snowstorm on Tuesday. Slightly colder mid levels. I think in these situations it tends to under sample warm noses so that may end up being a very gfs-like run in reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I think the final wave next Tuesday will the the last chance of a decent SNOW event with the HP in ideal position. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It has the highest potential to be a significant winter storm given the pattern and cold available of anything this season. Also, CAD events are more prevalent here and usually our “specialty.” Potential doesn’t verify to winter storms all the time. I’d probably wait a couple days to prepare as we’re still in the infancy of the cad solution but I’d definitely keep it on your radar Obiwan, To add to NorthHills comments... The major models are now showing a decent influx of low level cold air into the triangle for next Mon-Weds with precip in the picture. Lots of flux here with each iteration and interval of model output but there seems to be more of a narrowing on this timeframe for something (sleet/ice) significant to occur early next week. As for the upcoming weekend (right now) that system will likely be more of a hinderance north and west of Cary. Just my 2 cents 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I wouldn't go to no extremes just yet... just keep checking back and hopefully their will be some consensus soon I've been on the fence about a generator for quite some time now - today's the day. BTW - I mostly avoid Harbor Freight - but I was told their return policy is as easy as it gets - buy the extended warranty: best case keep it in the box unless needed (no warranty needed), worst case if it ever fails- drain fuel/oil - exchange at store no questions, and buy the extended warranty on that one. I will say - their Predator line unbeknownst to me are powered by Briggs&Stratton produced engines. I'd rather have peace of mind than an empty shelf come "go time" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 16 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 2018 redux but ice instead of snow Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Bless God! Triad sleet and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Bless God! Triad sleet and snow. Verbatim the triangle would have a glacier on the ground if this solution played out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Verbatim the triangle would have a glacier on the ground if this solution played out Back off about half that zr accrual (convert to sleet?) and I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 UK looks good up this way , not sure how much of the snow is actually ICE on their snow map though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: UK looks good up this way , not sure how much of the snow is actually ICE on their snow map though Probably primarily sleet/zr. Looks similar to the ICON, just a good bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Anyone else get this when they try to pull up the GEFS on Weatherbell?Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: UK looks good up this way , not sure how much of the snow is actually ICE on their snow map though UK is rain for triangle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: UK is rain for triangle ICE up here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Gonna be a lot of cold rain until next weeks threat for NC and SC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, HKY_WX said: If this comes to pass, I look forward to watching the northern transplants in Raleigh attempt to drive to work on ZR at 20 degrees... "'Cause they are used to that up north...." No offense to northern transplants in Raleigh who view this board (you're obviously excluded) LOL that would be me and even up there you can't drive on an ice rink. I will just stay here and get drone shots of the trees and damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GEFS is super moist for Tuesday’s system. .5qpf mean over the upstate. cad High in perfect position. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Anyone else get this when they try to pull up the GEFS on Weatherbell? Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z GEFS is out to lunch... Way warmer than OP (Weatherbell pic)Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 12z GEFS is out to lunch... Way warmer than OP (Weatherbell pic) Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Of course it is, it's a smoothed mean at nearly 180 hours out. Key is the CAD signal is there. This is the ptype panel.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 22 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: UK is rain for triangle Huge red flag here. Last rug pull had all but the UKMET on board for the cold. We know what happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 12z GEFS is out to lunch... Way warmer than OP (Weatherbell pic) Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk That’s not a bad look from the mean at all if you want a CAD wintry event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 so if I'm looking at the GFS for MBY: .2 ice accretion on Friday .3 ice accretion on Saturday 3" snow on Tuesday with temps around 20. I dont know if it'll be right but wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I’m thinking Tuesday Bull City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, HKY_WX said: Something to remember, this CAD has a direct connection to the parent HP over Canada. Once we start getting the northeasterly wind feed setup later this week, I have a hard time seeing the wedge breaking until the HP moves out of position offshore, which wont' happen until next week. It's honestly going to only get stronger as time goes on and the HP buildings into the Dakotas and eventually slides east. So we could be looking at several days of freezing rain/sleet coinciding with the STJ impulses that are coming through. The models will likely trend towards this solution over time. Yep. If this comes to pass, this high and cold is a different beast than the endless parade of marginal cad events we have had recently. The 12z gfs and Canadian are showing minimal temps of the wedge in the mid teens around 950 to 925mb all the way into ne ga. Been a long time since we have seen a cad event that cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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