SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 There’s no doubt models are finally reaching a consensus now on the timing of the boundary coming through the SE. the Euro and CMC are the latest but at least the models as a whole now are at least within a day of another and not 5 days 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Moisture definitely more south on 18z NAM , let's see where it heads... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 This is the ens average...Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: This is the ens average... Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 At 66 , the NAM looks similar to the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 IP breaking out at 75 per NAM in Southern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Oh goodness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The trend is alive and well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 ICE STORM beginning per NAM , N NC S VA @ 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Ouch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Geez , this thing is trending colder quick! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Is there any guidance that hasn’t trended colder today? EURO, NAM, CMC, ICON, GFS have all trended colder and significantly so in most cases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Geez , this thing is trending colder quick! Yep big chances today and they all started with RGEM. Lets see what it does in a little bit which might lead the way again for another shift south tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 It's been many years since we've had a true expansive Arctic HP over the Plains for days like the models are portraying. Could be a fun 10 days of tracking. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Is there any guidance that hasn’t trended colder today? EURO, NAM, CMC, ICON, GFS have all trended colder and significantly so in most cases Yep they have all trended colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 This is hr78 on the 18z, since it was hr84 on the 12zSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Also one thing to note this is a wedge building in as moisture is arriving. Lately we have been wedged in waiting for the moisture and by the time it gets here the high is retreating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 This is only 3-3.5 days out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: ICE STORM beginning per NAM , N NC S VA @ 78 Not typical of ice storms to start as plain rain and then drop below freezing (31 in the triad). Part of it's the dry airmass, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Not typical of ice storms to start as plain rain and then drop below freezing (31 in the triad). Part of it's the dry airmass, but still... PD2 storm back in 03 had a backdoor CAD front that was unreal. Started as Rain in the 40's and eventually turned into ZR and IP in the 20's. It had a similar CAD setup with the Parent Arctic HP. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Not typical of ice storms to start as plain rain and then drop below freezing (31 in the triad). Part of it's the dry airmass, but still... Doesn't take much, let's see if the guidance keeps the trend going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 What's the next run, Happy Hour GFS?Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: What's the next run, Happy Hour GFS? Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 18z RGEM will be out soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Doesn't take much, let's see if the guidance keeps the trend going Think over the last week we’ve wobbled back and forth talking about trends that just ended up being head fakes. This feels like an actual trend today. Not to mention this isn’t day 7 we’re talking about... let’s see where it takes us over the next few cycles. Nothing seems to point to the trend stopping as of yet, and CAD is the one aspect of winter weather here that is frequently under modeled at range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: 18z RGEM will be out soon 18z RGEM running now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 18z RGEM running now That the HRDPS on Weatherbell?Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I think the one common trend this winter has been to colder in the 3-5 day range (as the models pick up on the persistent blocking), but then things seem to more or less settle in within 72 hours. I suspect most trending will be done by end of day tomorrow. Beyond 120 hours, we should just take the models as showing us a range of potential and nothing more. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: That the HRDPS on Weatherbell? Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk RGEM on Tropical tidbits , not sure about the one on weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 18z RGEM coming in colder. You can see its further south than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Early access to the rgem found here. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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