strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: The border of the purple and blue. Real estate is all about location 87/88 is why I do this. Those season were awesome and I chase for that every year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro has a Jan ‘87 look to it You know, honestly, January 87 might not be an awful analog if it wasnt a nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: 87/88 is why I do this. Those season were awesome and I chase for that every year. I can remember as a young pup that 87 snow. Of course, who doesnt remember 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Euro with a bit of a monkey's paw run - oh, i hear you don't want suppression, how about this! Shout out to the folks that really get it good on that run but let's hope future runs settle down; a big sharp trough like that is begging to see a NW trend. keep the euro ens images coming if you got em, should be a pretty enlightening run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Euro with a bit of a monkey's paw run - oh, i hear you don't want suppression, how about this! Shout out to the folks that really get it good on that run but let's hope future runs settle down; a big sharp trough like that is begging to see a NW trend. keep the euro ens images coming if you got em, should be a pretty enlightening run. Not as excited as we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 More Euro Ens Mean images for early next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Seems like the op is an outlier and suppression is the name of the game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 From 12z Models for Mon-Tue: GFS Para/CMC/UKMet: drop northern stream wave on top of, or in front of, southern stream wave...storm is weaker/more suppressed GFS/Euro: drop northern stream wave into the backside of the southern wave...storm goes boom (GFS is a little later) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Seems like the op is an outlier and suppression is the name of the game Euro Ens Mean looks about perfect to me for western areas for a week away...solid looking storm that is tracking south of you (likely to adjust north)...32 deg line on the mean thru CLT....of course, this is one model 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, griteater said: Euro Ens Mean looks about perfect to me for western areas for a week away...solid looking storm that is tracking south of you...32 deg line on the mean thru CLT....of course, this is one model Thanks for the images yall, and completely agreed; for a week out it's a pretty lovely signal. I've been around long enough to bake a NW trend into any long range projection, so I like where we are sitting at now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Definitely a strong signal there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 One thing I'll watch for, in model runs and on-the-ground, is the "Dallas rule". Growing up in NC, Raleigh mets used to say if it was snowing in Dallas (as a result of a Miller A), buckle up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 18z GFS so far is suppressed for the storm next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS so far is suppressed for the storm next week... This could be a coastal NC set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Afternoon disco from GSP: Quote The next possible winter storm is on the horizon for early next week. Still a ton of uncertainty with this yet to be formed system. Most guidance shows a developing low pressure system somewhere near the coast with ample cold air to work with across the region. The big question mark should this low develop is how much if any moisture and associated precipitation is thrown back into the colder air. Right now the forecast features diurnally driven rain/snow chances across the region Monday into Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 hours ago, griteater said: Euro Ens Mean looks about perfect to me for western areas for a week away...solid looking storm that is tracking south of you (likely to adjust north)...32 deg line on the mean thru CLT....of course, this is one model Does that mean grit you don't think it's likely that the northern energy kills the wave, based on the ensembles? That seems to be what's suppressing everything. Hard to fathom we'd lose any storm by suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Northwest trends my friends..northwest trends..it will come 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowNiner said: Does that mean grit you don't think it's likely that the northern energy kills the wave, based on the ensembles? That seems to be what's suppressing everything. Hard to fathom we'd lose any storm by suppression. On phased storms its always paramount that the ns comes in behind the ss for the phase to go boom. Want work the other way around. You always want the ns to drop right in ss hip pocket as it comes down. If its even a hair in front, its a wash,weak sauce strung out nada. Ukmet use to be the king at sniffing out phasers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: One thing I'll watch for, in model runs and on-the-ground, is the "Dallas rule". Growing up in NC, Raleigh mets used to say if it was snowing in Dallas (as a result of a Miller A), buckle up. Atlanta was our benchmark in Charlotte. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Atlanta was our benchmark in Charlotte. Huntsville is usually good juju for the foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 If it’s snowing in tampa then here in Myrtle beach might do ok 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 18z Euro Ens Mean at the end of its run at hr144...another threatening run 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 hours ago, SnowNiner said: Does that mean grit you don't think it's likely that the northern energy kills the wave, based on the ensembles? That seems to be what's suppressing everything. Hard to fathom we'd lose any storm by suppression. Don't think we can say either way about the phasing, other than just guessing at this stage, but the EPS has a good look right now. GEFS and GEPS look decent, but not quite as good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, griteater said: 18z Euro Ens Mean at the end of its run at hr144...another threatening run Am I reading that right though, the surface freezing line is in New York? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Am I reading that right though, the surface freezing line is in New York? You have to ignore that lol It's a function of it being 1pm and it's averaging out all members. Yeah, ideally, the 32 line is in Jacksonville and everything else is the same lol, but not going to be that way. 850 zero is Fayetteville to Montgomery 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, griteater said: You have to ignore that lol It's a function of it being 1pm and it's averaging out all members. Yeah, ideally, the 32 line is in Jacksonville and everything else is the same lol, but not going to be that way. 850 zero is Fayetteville to Montgomery Lol, I was looking real hard for it and I couldn't find it...until I looked near Canada! Yeah that's not ideal, it's one of my ticks. I'm not a rates will overcome kind of guy. But it's likely similar if not better than what were dealing with this week. Let's get a storm to pop and we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 GFS is suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 GFS is suppressed It literally just fizzles out to nothing in the GOM. Wow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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