Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

[wncsnow]

[BullCityWx]

180 has freezing rain breaking out in Birmingham and Atlanta. 

[wncsnow]

Super dry air 

[NorthHillsWx]

Major winter storm incoming

[wncsnow]

[wncsnow]

Looks like another miller A/B hybrid 

[ILMRoss]

euro 8 day has a cad high that looks a doodle a college kid in synoptic makes trying to draw up the perfect ice storm. yikes.

[HKY_WX]

Day 7 is more of a classic NC ice/snow storm. Doesn't get much better than that look. Need to reel this one in.

[wncsnow]

Verbatim it warms up from CLT to RAH 

[BullCityWx]

1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

euro 8 day has a cad high that looks a doodle a college kid in synoptic makes trying to draw up the perfect ice storm. yikes.

Yeah, last time we had anything similar to that strength of a high, would've been the supercad storm in 2010. I had thundersleet in Gastonia for that one.

[BullCityWx]

That low is not going to bully that high out of the way. That is laughable.

[WXNewton]

Let's be honest if Euro were to produce anything close to this run it would be absolutely devastating for CAD areas. A lot of us would be cheering for sleet. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Verbatim it warms up from CLT to RAH 

It’s possible with that low track but imo unlikely. A 1040+ mb HP in Pennsylvania, dew points in single digits, and snowpack yo the north. That’s a CAD formula not going to be denied. 

[Dunkman]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Verbatim it warms up from CLT to RAH 

Yeah no way that happens with that look. 
 

I can’t speak for anyone else but I’m gonna fire up the generator this week and make sure it’s working.

[burrel2]

Euro doesn’t warm up here... still 31 as the precip moves out... most of the 1+ inches of liquid fell with temps around 25. Would be almost entirely sleet Judging by the depth of the cold layer and 925 temps.

[CaryWx]

If there is ever an anticipation for the euro ensembles it is this afternoon.

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s possible with that low track but imo unlikely. A 1040+ mb HP in Pennsylvania, dew points in single digits, and snowpack yo the north. That’s a CAD formula not going to be denied. 

Yeah it won't warm up like the EURO is advertising... that would be a devastating ICE Storm for some folks

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Yeah no way that happens with that look. 

That’s a CAD locked in long duration freezing rain/sleet event. Globals are not good at CAD specifics at this range but you’d be hard pressed to come up with a more textbook look for a major ice event for large areas of the Carolinas and Georgia 

[Dunkman]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That’s a CAD locked in long duration freezing rain/sleet event. Globals are not good at CAD specifics at this range but you’d be hard pressed to come up with a more textbook look for a major ice event for large areas of the Carolinas and Georgia 

I would hope a lot of us could sleet in northern NC if there’s ZR in Macon Georgia but who knows.

[lilj4425]

Not the snow I wanted but it is trending in the right direction so I’ll take it this far out. Baby steps.Would much rather have sleet than ZR if it’s gonna be ice also.

[HKY_WX]

I'd expect to see a lot of waffling over the next few days, however this is a much more traditional look for a winter storm in favored areas in the Southeast (GA/SC/NC). Especially ice. I think in the end that will win out. The most important feature on this one will be how the 50/50 low trends (see below over the N Atlantic). If this trends weaker, this will be an Apps cutter. We need this to be stout and lock in the HP over the NE. The odds are in our favor as the atlantic has been pretty good for the past month and conducive for lower heights in this area due to the -AO/NAO. To be continued....

 

[burrel2]

Euro matches up fairly well with the ukmet at 144hr. Only difference being the ukmet is colder and more suppressive with the arctic blast. Both models have a potent system in California. 
 

all that matters at this point is that we get the cold press... the the euro/ukmet agree on that. Let’s hope they’re right.
 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I'd expect to see a lot of waffling over the next few days, however this is a much more traditional look for a winter storm in favored areas in the Southeast (GA/SC/NC). Especially ice. I think in the end that will win out. The most important feature on this one will be how the 50/50 low trends (see below over the N Atlantic). If this trends weaker, this will be an Apps cutter. We need this to be stout and lock in the HP over the NE. The odds are in our favor as the atlantic has been pretty good for the past month and conducive for lower heights in this area due to the -AO/NAO. To be continued....

 

Excellent post. Thanks

[Snow dog]

17 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Euro doesn’t warm up here... still 31 as the precip moves out... most of the 1+ inches of liquid fell with temps around 25. Would be almost entirely sleet Judging by the depth of the cold layer and 925 temps.

Give me rain and 70 all day over a big Freezing rain event.  Sleet, I can take..

[BornAgain13]

Wonder if the NAM will trend colder for the late week system 

[WXNewton]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Wonder if the NAM will trend colder for the late week system 

I bet it does, that's kind of been the theme today for that time period. Hi-res models ought to really bring that into perspective the next few runs. 

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, WXNewton said:

I bet it does, that's kind of been the theme today for that time period. Hi-res models ought to really bring that into perspective the next few runs. 

Yeah the CMC/RGEM really looked intriguing...

[PantherJustin]

9 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

I bet it does, that's kind of been the theme today for that time period. Hi-res models ought to really bring that into perspective the next few runs. 

Aaaaand and “it was at this moment The Southeast Forum knew...... they Messed up” 

[griteater]

44 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Euro matches up fairly well with the ukmet at 144hr. Only difference being the ukmet is colder and more suppressive with the arctic blast. Both models have a potent system in California. 
 

all that matters at this point is that we get the cold press... the the euro/ukmet agree on that. Let’s hope they’re right.
 

It’s like Field of Dreams.  Build in the cold high pressure, and the winter storm will come.

[WXNewton]

7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yeah the CMC/RGEM really looked intriguing...

 

I think the key to the end of the week storm is all about timing, which in most ways that's the big puzzle piece to getting any winter storm in the south. Both the Euro and Canadian have the CAD building in stronger throughout the day on Friday and into Saturday. If the system would happen to slow down some and the cold air filter in a little quicker we might have a better chance.