WXNewton Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Here is the 12z Canadian trend for the Friday time-frame. Eyes are open now! A couple more trends like this and we will have some icing issues if correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Why are all these Lows dropping almost due south through Mexico on the Euro, vs coming into the gulf/continuing east? Seems wonky. This is a really good question. I think this is a representation of a few things: GFS/Euro et al represent surface pressures in areas of elevation by taking the parcels at that elevation, and running them through an equation that converts to what the surface pressure would be at sea level. Mexico has a lot of elevation, and ground truth for most stations would likely be sub 950mb readings, which is why this is needed. This process can produce "wonky" isobar patterns (can also see this across the rocky mountains). This can create a "jumpy" representation of low pressures, which is why it looks like lows can shift to weird geographic locations. Another thing is just the orientation of the trough- with a big trough oriented across the MS valley, shortwaves will dive Southeast-ward across that region, which will also naturally produce southward-ish moving low pressures. Lastly, you won't see as many cyclones (low pressures) forming in the gulf as you do the east coast- both the temperature gradient and low level vorticity, items you need to churn out big low pressures, aren't really as strong as they are the east coast, which is why you don't naturally see as many gulf lows form. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Last frame of the UKMET is 12z Sunday. It's -5 in Nashville, -11 in Louisville and 6 degrees in Huntsville. The arctic front is crossing NC with some arctic front snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Why are ppl hating on ICE storms? Gimme 3” Snow 1” Sleet and 1/2” ice on top lol 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, PantherJustin said: Why are ppl hating on ICE storms? Gimme 3” Snow 1” Sleet and 1/2” ice on top lol You can have all the ice 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: You can have all the ice I just want to verify a winter storm warning this winter. Be it ice or snow, bring it on! Also, if I’m getting ice in Raleigh, you’re likely getting sleet or snow in Winston Salem. Win-win 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 16 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Why are ppl hating on ICE storms? Gimme 3” Snow 1” Sleet and 1/2” ice on top lol I'd trim that freezing rain to .20" for a nice winter wonderland look that likely still keeps your heat running. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The 144 hr panel of the ukmet was the best thing to come from the 12z runs. If we can get the arctic air to dump down we will score. Fingers crossed that the euro looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Pretty strong signal on GEPS that reflects the RGEMs solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 40 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: This is a really good question. I think this is a representation of a few things: GFS/Euro et al represent surface pressures in areas of elevation by taking the parcels at that elevation, and running them through an equation that converts to what the surface pressure would be at sea level. Mexico has a lot of elevation, and ground truth for most stations would likely be sub 950mb readings, which is why this is needed. This process can produce "wonky" isobar patterns (can also see this across the rocky mountains). This can create a "jumpy" representation of low pressures, which is why it looks like lows can shift to weird geographic locations. Another thing is just the orientation of the trough- with a big trough oriented across the MS valley, shortwaves will dive Southeast-ward across that region, which will also naturally produce southward-ish moving low pressures. Lastly, you won't see as many cyclones (low pressures) forming in the gulf as you do the east coast- both the temperature gradient and low level vorticity, items you need to churn out big low pressures, aren't really as strong as they are the east coast, which is why you don't naturally see as many gulf lows form. Thanks. Awesome stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I'd much, much, muuuuuch rather have a cold rain at 33F to any significant amount of freezing rain. December 2002 (I think it was, the last significant ice in the Triangle) was a nightmare. I was sawing and carrying tree limbs for many a weekend thereafter and it took over a decade for nearly all the widowmakers to finally come down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, BigWeather said: I'd much, much, muuuuuch rather have a cold rain at 33F to any significant amount of freezing rain. December 2002 (I think it was, the last significant ice in the Triangle) was a nightmare. I was sawing and carrying tree limbs for many a weekend thereafter and it took over a decade for nearly all the widowmakers to finally come down. I was 11 yrs old living in Afton Ridge Area of Kannapolis where I grew up.... I remember my dad waking up for work at 4A that Morning and said it looked like 4th of July with all the transformers popping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 16 minutes ago, BigWeather said: I'd much, much, muuuuuch rather have a cold rain at 33F to any significant amount of freezing rain. December 2002 (I think it was, the last significant ice in the Triangle) was a nightmare. I was sawing and carrying tree limbs for many a weekend thereafter and it took over a decade for nearly all the widowmakers to finally come down. I remember sleeping 6 nights next to the fireplace with my family and having to shower at a friends house. No damage at our house but took weeks to clean up fallen trees at our farm in Franklin county. Also remember it snowing to begin that storm and sticking from the first flake. Must have been very cold leading up to it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Euro with big trend on Friday's system, not far off from RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 12z EURO trended colder. Significant snowstorm for Central VA , Significant ICE storm for Southern VA/Northern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Here is the trend with precip and temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Not sure how much better we can get for Wake. Need that HP to trend even stronger. Typical CAD areas favored again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Not sure how much better we can get for Wake. Need that HP to trend even stronger. Typical CAD areas favored again. For the coastal plain of Wake? Yes. For north of 540? not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The Euro has trended stronger with the cad but it has also slowed the arctic front if it ever makes it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: For the coastal plain of Wake? Yes. For north of 540? not much. north of 540 is less than 30% of the county. Much of the county was rain for the past 2 similar events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z EURO trended colder. Significant snowstorm for Central VA , Significant ICE storm for Southern VA/Northern NC I don’t trust the euro man.. it hasn’t been itself lately. I feel rain and mid 30s for our areas. The NAM’s thermals are also a red flag for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Here is the trend with precip and temps. Any further south, and SoVA is in the game for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Looks like the arctic front is about 12 hours slower than the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Looks like the arctic front is about 12 hours slower than the UKMET. I can deal with a 12 hour delay. As long as the football doesn’t keep moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Snow breaking out over a good chunk of Texas at 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 EURO at 174 has a 1046 HP over the GL and a gulf low. Likely going to be a suppressed solution but I’ll take that look a week out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: Snow breaking out over a good chunk of Texas at 174. That is, umm, a cold look for the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: That is, umm, a cold look for the Carolinas Storm incoming, likely a lot of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: That is, umm, a cold look for the Carolinas Yeah, I'm definitely concerned with the coming cold if we have a big ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Well 186 is as textbook a winter storm look as you could get. Perfect 1044 placement and developing gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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