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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Well, you're starting the damn thread if it happens

If we are to get a decent storm (NC) my hunch is it will not be this weekend but mid next week as has been hinted at back-and-forth forth for some time now on various modeling.

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3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

If we are to get a decent storm (NC) my hunch is it will not be this weekend but mid next week as has been hinted at back-and-forth forth for some time now on various modeling.

Friday has legs imo. Won’t be a snowstorm but potentially a disruptive winter event if modeling trends continue. Most of us had written it off but it’s trended colder and colder for a couple days now.

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3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

If it's a mostly snow event then you may be right. I think Friday has some real zr/ip potential. 

Is it bad to say I kind of want an ice storm? It’s been so long since we had one in Raleigh that amounted to anything other than a nuisance event. Definitely helps I have a generator that’s been sitting unused for 3 years 

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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Is it bad to say I kind of want an ice storm? It’s been so long since we had one in Raleigh that amounted to anything other than a nuisance event. Definitely helps I have a generator that’s been sitting unused for 3 years 

I feel the same way, I think ice storms can be the most beautiful and destructive forces when it comes to weather. Part of the weather weenie in me loves to watch them unfold. 

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Is it bad to say I kind of want an ice storm? It’s been so long since we had one in Raleigh that amounted to anything other than a nuisance event. Definitely helps I have a generator that’s been sitting unused for 3 years 

I get where you’re coming from.  I sort of have a Professor Chaos streak in me and I tend to enjoy the break in monotony.  Both Friday and Sunday are periods to keep an eye on.

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Is it bad to say I kind of want an ice storm? It’s been so long since we had one in Raleigh that amounted to anything other than a nuisance event. Definitely helps I have a generator that’s been sitting unused for 3 years 

I think at this point the "do you want an ice-storm" debate is the equivalent of the "does pineapple belong on a pizza" debate, you're going to get some strong reactions either way haha. As for myself, i need to eat all the frozen shrimp in my freezer before i can in good conscience root for a zr storm.

GFS showing some all-timer potential for somebody; can't say i'd be bummed if the GFS panned out (although I expect to see many more shifts and solutions)

 

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1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:

Last frame of the ICON, it's 20 degrees and snowing in LAKE CHARLES.

 

Now that has a look to it that could potentially make a lot of folks happy as we move forward. I think the main thing to take away from this is that the models are showing the players on the field and the potential is coming into better focus of scoring with something. Maybe some good times ahead!

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Well, some people on this board may have been a bit too quick to press the “cancel” button on this winter from today’s 12z suite so far. That’s all I’ll say. Many, many more runs to go but Friday through next week gives us some pretty awesome potential. Not saying we’ll get a flake or ice pellet but winter most definitely looks to be alive and well 

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4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Well, some people on this board may have been a bit too quick to press the “cancel” button on this winter from today’s 12z suite so far. That’s all I’ll say. Many, many more runs to go but Friday through next week gives us some pretty awesome potential. Not saying we’ll get a flake or ice pellet but winter most definitely looks to be alive and well 

With all of this potential energy moving through over the next 2 weeks, I have a feeling that we could see a storm seemingly appear out of nowhere and trend our way with very limited lead time. 

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2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

With all of this potential energy moving through over the next 2 weeks, I have a feeling that we could see a storm seemingly appear out of nowhere and trend our way with very limited lead time. 

I feel like that Friday storm might be the one. I have a feeling it's gonna take  while for the GFS to catch up fully and potentially the Euro.

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Just now, WXNewton said:

With all of this potential energy moving through over the next 2 weeks, I have a feeling that we could see a storm seemingly appear out of nowhere and trend our way with very limited lead time. 

Or the opposite too...Orlando was sitting at 81 degrees 18z Friday if I recall correctly.  Anything can happen at this point.  We need to look at the trends and blends at this point without any bias.   I’m as guilty as the next guy too.

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1 minute ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Or the opposite too...Orlando was sitting at 81 degrees 18z Friday if I recall correctly.  Anything can happen at this point.  We need to look at the trends and blends at this point without any bias.   I’m as guilty as the next guy too.

Just posted a trend from Canadian, definitely looks to becoming more favorable in the CAD areas. 

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12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Well, some people on this board may have been a bit too quick to press the “cancel” button on this winter from today’s 12z suite so far. That’s all I’ll say. Many, many more runs to go but Friday through next week gives us some pretty awesome potential. Not saying we’ll get a flake or ice pellet but winter most definitely looks to be alive and well 

I Think canceling winter or snow is the critical ingredient to getting wintry precip 

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