NCSNOW Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 29 minutes ago, msuwx said: While people have been complaining about cold being delayed over and over and over again this winter, we’ve had a consistently cool winter, zero blowtorches, a couple of minor events, and a mountain ski/ snow season that’s the best in several years. There are also consistently a couple of posters who have declared winter over multiple times and that no more flakes would fall at XYZ location. It gets tiresome. We have not scored a major snowstorm in a lot of places for quite a while, and I get it and feel the frustration as well. But the whining about this winter is completely unjustified to this point. I am on two hours sleep and a little punchy, so forgive me. Ha ha Good post Greensboro is BN Dec,Jan and now almost -3 Feb. 4 events with flakes. Pitfall is they all 4 total like 1.5.. But still way better than seasonal forecsat issued late Nov. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: I do not think it is all liquid ***in this set up*** and longer range models are notoriously poor at picking up CAD. Definitely not a lock to be a rain event as depicted on the models. Need to watch this It's not appropriate to judge what the exact p-type will be this far out. That is a clear CAD signature with a Miller A on the GFS. It's also depicted on the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Baby steps out to hr78Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 EURO definitely coming in colder so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I like the looks through 126 TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I like the looks through 126 TW EURO definitely coming in colder so far Out to 132Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: I like the looks through 126 TW Definitely trended much better and a solid CAD signature. Would not need massive southern adjustments to be back in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 System at 150 is close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Can't get a better look than this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The mid Atlantic is going to become a glacier if the Euro is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 EURO MUCH improved from 0z dumpster fire. Drops the arctic hammer too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Wow...Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: Wow... Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Consistency... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 EPS ensembles should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Man that’s a pretty HP placement at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 It's a great pattern..if you love cold rain and cutters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's a great pattern..if you love cold rain and cutters Wut? This pattern is the best you can hope for to avoid cutters and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Even though the euro didn’t pan out at day 8/9... it’s still a great look. It advances the Canadian vortex, brings the cold and locked in wedging... only problem is the next system crashing in to the Pacific is super strong and slow moving and doesn’t quite here in time. It’s on island with that strong of a pacific system plowing in to the incredible confluence over the continent and I doubt it plays out that way. All I care about is that it delivered the cold and confluence this run. I bet the ensemble mean will be nice, Game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Wut? This pattern is the best you can hope for to avoid cutters and rain. Not sure what model you are looking at but I don't see a snowy pattern on the Euro or Canadian, GFS is a bit better but all the models are very inconsistent right now. Better to just check in every few days to watch the trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Not sure what model you are looking at but I don't see a snowy pattern on the Euro or Canadian, GFS is a bit better but all the models are very inconsistent right now. Better to just check in every few days to watch the trends Assuming the cold/confluence ejects East like the euro/gfs show we will have a long duration time frame with arctic sourced cold air, a damming high, and where it will be very difficult for a system to cut. then it’s just a matter of getting a pacific system to eject within that 2-3 day window. it’s a very wide goal post set up, about as good as you can get. Doesn’t mean it’ll pan out but you have to like the look( assuming the arctic airmass doesn’t dump out west like the Canadian shows). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Model trends: GFS: positive, several winter events and close calls. Probably most consistent modeling of late EURO: Most improved player award. Gets arctic air in. Great CAD look for Thursday/Friday system then a follow up system w/potential before arctic air moves in Canadian: dumpster fire, no sugarcoating it ICON: improved. CAD signature and trended colder towards end of run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Assuming the cold/confluence ejects East like the euro/gfs show we will have a long duration time frame with arctic sourced cold air, a damming high, and where it will be very difficult for a system to cut. then it’s just a matter of getting a pacific system to eject within that 2-3 day window. it’s a very wide goal post set up, about as good as you can get. Doesn’t mean it’ll pan out but you have to like the look( assuming the arctic airmass doesn’t dump out west like the Canadian shows). I can sense the renewed enthusiasm now that you’ve had your snowstorm this season haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I’m always an optimist 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Trying to stay positive before the Euro sends everyone over the cliff in a couple hours. Did throw the “lol” in for good measure... I do think we have a chance especially with total model mayhem atm. We tend to do much better when snow shows up in the 2-3 day window than a long ways out on the models anyway. Give me some arctic air nearby and good HP placement and let the rest work itself out **takes sip of bourbon. I apologize I am rather salty today too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Cmc ensemble mean is nothing like the OP, ejects East and dumps arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Cmc ensemble mean is nothing like the OP, ejects East and dumps arctic air. I would expect some wild swings with this model next couple runs given that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Model trends: GFS: positive, several winter events and close calls. Probably most consistent modeling of late EURO: Most improved player award. Gets arctic air in. Great CAD look for Thursday/Friday system then a follow up system w/potential before arctic air moves in Canadian: dumpster fire, no sugarcoating it ICON: improved. CAD signature and trended colder towards end of run*Canadian Ensemble goodSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: Cmc ensemble mean is nothing like the OP, ejects East and dumps arctic air. It’s been like that now seemingly for days though I think the last night’s Canadian ensemble sort of did agree with the Op on being torchy but that was only run that did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I don’t like the “models have no idea what’s going on” line. I think sometimes that line is used as a crutch and a bit of a copout. That being said... good lord the models are absolutely struggling. I think it’s a mixture of less airplane data + very amplified pattern, where any model errors will matter further in the run more so than usual. I don’t really know how to interpret this and I’m not jealous of mets assigned to figure this out. Instead of “siding” with a model or camp, I think the appropriate thing to do is just to sit back for a few more cycles and see if models key in on anything. While the gfs is an outlier, we seem to be able to summon CAD a little easier than usual this winter and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a CAD-driven mess materialize out of the hazy ether that the 12z guidance left us with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I’d like to wait a few days to see what the polar vortex is actually going to do. I am more pessimistic at this point but living run to run has proved futile this year. Wobbles east and west remind me of Hurricane tracking. Models suck this year but have seemed to trend better within 48h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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