WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 41 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: People have to realize that maybe this isn’t a sleet or snow event but the extracted data on BUFKIT shows Greensboro very close to a n ice storm disaster at 12z. What do we know about ice events? They almost always trend colder. Ain’t nobody got time for ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Ain’t nobody got time for ice. This SE Forum gallop poll begs to differ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2015 was a long time ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, BullCityWx said: People have to realize that maybe this isn’t a sleet or snow event but the extracted data on BUFKIT shows Greensboro very close to a n ice storm disaster at 12z. What do we know about ice events? They almost always trend colder. I’d love to track a big time Ice storm atleast it’s winter WX 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Day 8 euro is setting up nicely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Day 8 euro is setting up nicely... Major CAD ice storm for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Classic CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Jma has a snowstorm at hr 192 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I’m liking that 192hr range. Let’s get it inside day 7 this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Classic CADENSSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: ENS Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk The CMC and CMC ensemble at 160 is glaringly different too. It’s odd that the only Op run consistently pushing the cold air east is the GFS but all the ensembles are doing it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just for what it’s worth, I’ve had 2 ice events this year and neither really trended colder. As a matter of fact, both pretty much underperformed. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 You really need a dry airmass in place for models to be underdone, I think. The events this year haven’t had that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 It seems to me that the colder the air to our north, the more likely it is to drain down the east side of the mountains. Above average cold air doesn''t really get the job done unless the high is ideally centered roughly over NY. Odds are improving that we might get one of both of those later next week. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 39 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The CMC and CMC ensemble at 160 is glaringly different too. It’s odd that the only Op run consistently pushing the cold air east is the GFS but all the ensembles are doing it Looking to see if these LR models align more to eventual reality around the 4 day mark. So far your theory for this year's winter and LR model performance seems to be spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 47 minutes ago, burrel2 said: You really need a dry airmass in place for models to be underdone, I think. The events this year haven’t had that. Yeah it's a different ballgame if we can just get the cold TPV to drop down. Large area of -20 deg C temperatures at 850mb (pink contour) in bottom right image...with -30 deg C contour as well (purple)...on GFS at day 6-7. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 18z back to the delayed look, go bucking figureSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Yep, GFS was delayed about a day and a half compared to the previous run with dropping the TPV down...fine with that as long as it actually drops down at some point lol...that's the bigger question in my mind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 On the GEFS, the current storm at hr66 (just east of Novia Scotia at the beginning of the loop), deepens in the North Atlantic and helps to build ridging back into Greenland at the end of the run. Another retrograding -NAO block? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 On the GEFS, the current storm (just east of Novia Scotia at the beginning of the loop), deepens in the North Atlantic and helps to build ridging back into Greenland at the end of the run. Another retrograding -NAO block?TextbookSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 On the GEFS, the current storm at hr66 (just east of Novia Scotia at the beginning of the loop), deepens in the North Atlantic and helps to build ridging back into Greenland at the end of the run. Another retrograding -NAO block?Also, look VERRRRRY carefully at the last 2 frames, ridging starts to rebuild in the PAC as soon as the block starts to retrogradeSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Little bit of light snow next Sunday afternoon on the GFS. Not much QPF but when you have -15 850 temps, you don’t need much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1046mb high Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 21 degrees with light snow at 1PM next Sunday. That’d be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: 21 degrees with light snow at 1PM next Sunday. That’d be nice. Now THAT is a wedge, too bad there's no precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: 21 degrees with light snow at 1PM next Sunday. That’d be nice. Good run overall on the GFS...on the flip side, the UKMet at hr144 loses the NE Pac ridging so the TPV gets hung up in Canada...model mayhem it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 10 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: 2015 was a long time ago ... and before COVID-19! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Is there something in the tea leaves about thunder and winter rains vs. Long term forecast? I have been hearing thunder off and on the last hourSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 on the flip side, the UKMet at hr144 loses the NE Pac ridging so the TPV gets hung up in Canada...The TPV squashed the ridgeSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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