SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 hours ago, griteater said: Impressive look developing at the end on the EPS Mean here with heavy west based -NAO via Davis Strait ridging and deep blues off the Canadian Maritimes / and removal of Gulf of Alaska Low (Jan 12-19) That's what I've been waiting for! Remove the Atlantic ridging and replace it with lower heights. Open the door for the cold to move freely into the south east. Toward that later period I hope we score. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 0z GFS with the Gulf Low for next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Some reason the 2nd system is getting sheared out and weakening on the models as it rounds the bend. Confluence too strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Some reason the 2nd system is getting sheared out and weakening on the models as it rounds the bend. Confluence too strong? Kinda weird, coming out of the gulf, it looks awesome and then it goes see ya... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Some reason the 2nd system is getting sheared out and weakening on the models as it rounds the bend. Confluence too strong? Yeah, there is a northern stream wave moving down thru the Great Lakes that is dropping down right on top and just ahead of the southern wave....so, that is shearing it out a bit, but also keeping in suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GFS/GFSv16/CMC tonight all have the gulf low winter storm for parts of our forum on Monday...it was also on the 12z Euro and the Ensemble Means generally have the look as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I know the GFS used to be notorious for suppressing or even losing a storm system like this 5-7 days out only to slowly bring it back. Not sure if it still has that issue or not. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Looks like the Euro is going to suppress the second storm too. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The 6z GFS brings the 1/11 storm system back to life compared to the 00z run. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Three chances of snow in 15 days with an arctic plunge at the end. I liked that run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I know posting long range snow maps is a lesson in futility but this highlights the upcoming potential to have multiple storms through the period. Looks to be an exciting couple of weeks ahead 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: I know posting long range snow maps is a lesson in futility but this highlights the upcoming potential to have multiple storms through the period. Looks to be an exciting couple of weeks ahead All good. Guidance is looking nice as we head into the heart of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 In terms of "potential" I am much more excited and anticipatory on the 12z suite for the *Monday event* rather than the *Friday event* , much higher ceiling for a much larger swath of people. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: In terms of "potential" I am much more excited and anticipatory on the 12z suite for the *Monday event* rather than the *Friday event* , much higher ceiling for a much larger swath of people. Yeah, anything I get on Friday I consider a bonus. Sometimes scraping out 2-3" from an event like that can transition a winter from good to great so fingers crossed. Would you think if we do get 2-3" down and keep it around until Sunday, it helps us on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Another 2" this run on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 New GFS totally lost storm #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: New GFS totally lost storm #2. It’s in the gfs’ dna and they’ll never fix it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 35 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Yeah, anything I get on Friday I consider a bonus. Sometimes scraping out 2-3" from an event like that can transition a winter from good to great so fingers crossed. Would you think if we do get 2-3" down and keep it around until Sunday, it helps us on Monday? Anything helps - whether it's snow here that helps depress the surface temps some, or snow in S VA to keep the upstream airmass fresher for us, anything helps. Regular ol GFS showed the potential really nicely- play your cards right and you get a legit, bona fide Miller A here. Really excited to see what the Euro and it's ensembles show... If it shows a similar set up to the GFS this board is going to have an aneurism. I think suppression is still obviously on the table, there's a lot of shortwaves flying around and it wouldn't take much to smush this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Euro looks to be suppressed again... not late phase saves it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, ILMRoss said: Anything helps - whether it's snow here that helps depress the surface temps some, or snow in S VA to keep the upstream airmass fresher for us, anything helps. Regular ol GFS showed the potential really nicely- play your cards right and you get a legit, bona fide Miller A here. Really excited to see what the Euro and it's ensembles show... If it shows a similar set up to the GFS this board is going to have an aneurism. I think suppression is still obviously on the table, there's a lot of shortwaves flying around and it wouldn't take much to smush this. Here's to hoping. Round two is building in Texas at 126. Snowing in Austin and San Antonio, which is subobtimal given their elevated freeways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Euro about to go boom for western areas. Deep phasing trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Euro has a Jan ‘87 look to it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Lord have mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The euro thinks most of the snow cover we gain on Friday we keep until Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The euro thinks most of the snow cover we gain on Friday we keep until Monday. Yeah, I'll gladly take another half foot on Monday. =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 That definitely looks awesome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro has a Jan ‘87 look to it I'd rather have it look like Jan '88...LOL! If I remember correctly we had a lot of ice in Jan '87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, rduwx said: I'd rather have it look like Jan '88...LOL! If I remember correctly we had a lot of ice in Jan '87. The border of the purple and blue. Real estate is all about location 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Next weeks potential definitely looks bigger than this week.. lot of energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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