Upstate Tiger Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The super cold air in central and western Canada looks to be on the move south after New Years. How far south and east it goes is the question. At least we have cold air on this side of the hemisphere. Any buckle in the jet stream will open the flood gates. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 All I know is that -PNA is strong,deep,and negative.It's going to take quite a jolt to dislodge that feature to get to a better pattern.We'll see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 This winter looks like a lame duck to me. The PNA is killing us and there is no subtropical jet. I expect warmer and dry conditions to persist through the winter. At least we haven't had a lot of CAD wedges, drizzle and cold rain. Give me 60s and 70s if no snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 It's beginning to look a lot like torch-mas 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 19 hours ago, olafminesaw said: It's beginning to look a lot like torch-mas The -PNA sends its greetings. It’s borderline obnoxious how it takes an unfathomable amount of luck to even maintain average temps in the winter for more than a few days. Maybe P8 can save us but idk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Have to really appreciate the shorts and polo weather for Christmas Eve golf. Next week looks pretty raw though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 It looks like Christmas day will be best spent outside hiking Please don't shoot the messenger 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 It looks like Christmas day will be best spent outside hiking Please don't shoot the messenger I’m fine with that lol presents and food are overrated anyways. Seriously though I’m stunned at how warm meteorological “winter” has been here in 2021-22. Makes sense with a roaring Pacific though but crazy to experience 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 minute ago, nwohweather said: I’m fine with that lol presents and food are overrated anyways That is exactly what I am doing It will be quiet anyplace I decide to go, so now to figure out where I want to explore. I'd much rather have a snow filled landscape, but a perfect 70 degree day is a good consolation any time of the year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 2 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said: That is exactly what I am doing It will be quiet anyplace I decide to go, so now to figure out where I want to explore. I'd much rather have a snow filled landscape, but a perfect 70 degree day is a good consolation any time of the year Now that we arent going away, Im thinking somewhere J and I can take the dogs for a nice hike on xmas day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Avdave said: Now that we arent going away, Im thinking somewhere J and I can take the dogs for a nice hike on xmas day I'm sad you had to cancel For sure the pups will be glad to go hiking instead of relaxing at their B&B I'm opening up a map of about a 100 mile radius, closing my eyes and letting the curser land wherever and that's where I will go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: I'm sad you had to cancel For sure the pups will be glad to go hiking instead of relaxing at their B&B I'm opening up a map of about a 100 mile radius, closing my eyes and letting the curser land wherever and that's where I will go. Thanks. Yeah they will be happy wherever we go. I love your idea of the map and choosing a random location to go explore, that will be so much fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 The week after Christmas looks torchy too. Have to be some monthly records going down 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Meanwhile I shot these on Christmas Day last year in Banner Elk. We drove up there for a white Christmas since we couldn't see family. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 The SE ridge says “thou shalt not have cold weather in the SE this year” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Sooooo freaking frustrating to be so close, yet so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 There are some signs the western trough tries to propagate eastward and the raging pacific flow trends away with more west coast ridging towards the first week of January. SE ridge never goes away but at least our cutters will be going over the mountains instead of the UP of Michigan and cold air will be much closer instead of north of the Canadian border… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 13 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: There are some signs the western trough tries to propagate eastward and the raging pacific flow trends away with more west coast ridging towards the first week of January. SE ridge never goes away but at least our cutters will be going over the mountains instead of the UP of Michigan and cold air will be much closer instead of north of the Canadian border… I believe the saying goes "close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades." Even with a -EPO and a mega -NAO we still flop in the winter department with persistent west coast troughing. Insane but not unexpected. Better luck next year, fingers crossed for a Nino to return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Heads up for NC. Christmas Day may not be so warm as projected right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 6 hours ago, Jonathan said: I believe the saying goes "close only counts in horseshoes, ATOMIC BOMBS, and hand grenades." You forgot one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I implore this board to do what i'm planning to do over the holidays: absolutely abuse your local municipal golf course. get your best 18 holes in. learn to hit a stinger. play two balls. go out in headphones and catch up on that audiobook. i guarantee you will have the time because there is absolutely no reason to be on this board or obsessing over the GFS unless you're trying to figure out if you can wing it in short sleeves out there or if you'll need to adorn that pullover in the late afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 5 hours ago, Chuck said: You forgot one. Yeah, slow dancing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 The upcoming pattern really goes to show that south of New England (and especially south of the mid-Atlantic) you literally need EVERY. SINGLE. INDEX. to be in your favor to get cold or snow. We have a MONSTER -NAO coming (ya know, the one they say is most important for SE wintry mischief), a MONSTER -EPO coming (ya know, the one they said would be the hardest to flip this winter), the MJO looking to move through phases 8-1-2 (ya know, the best cycle for SE wintry chances) but because of the ONE bad index, the -PNA, it all means squat to us for any shot of prolonged cold or even an outside shot at wintry precip. What does it take to kill the SE ridge? Seems like climate change has made that feature permanent at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 5 hours ago, ILMRoss said: I implore this board to do what i'm planning to do over the holidays: absolutely abuse your local municipal golf course. get your best 18 holes in. learn to hit a stinger. play two balls. go out in headphones and catch up on that audiobook. i guarantee you will have the time because there is absolutely no reason to be on this board or obsessing over the GFS unless you're trying to figure out if you can wing it in short sleeves out there or if you'll need to adorn that pullover in the late afternoon. I had to reread this 3x....I thought it said hit a STRANGER! Rofl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Not even one semi-credible fantasy threat inside 7 days for the month of December, including mountain regions. Woof. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 28 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Not even one semi-credible fantasy threat inside 7 days for the month of December, including mountain regions. Woof. There has basically been 0 snow for even mountain peaks like Beech and Mitchell. No NWFS. Nada. One of the least snowy November/Decembers I have ever seen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 hours ago, DAWGNKITTEN said: I had to reread this 3x....I thought it said hit a STRANGER! Rofl Nice to see you posting beautiful lady! 3 hours ago, burrel2 said: Not even one semi-credible fantasy threat inside 7 days for the month of December, including mountain regions. Woof. IKR?! I'm taking consolation in the fact that the NE/MA weenies are suffering too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Nice to see you posting beautiful lady! IKR?! I'm taking consolation in the fact that the NE/MA weenies are suffering too Thanks Buckeye. Can't wait to see what this winter holds. Missed tracking these the last 8 years!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Griteater, I have a few questions. I read your recent tweets and good analysis. Do u still feel confident we get into a colder regime east of the Rockies at some point in January? It wasnt mentioned in your tweet that I recognized. Also, the rmm charts from the various models have differing solutions for the mjo. I guess my question is do you believe the ecmwf over the other models currently with the mjo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: Griteater, I have a few questions. I read your recent tweets and good analysis. Do u still feel confident we get into a colder regime east of the Rockies at some point in January? It wasnt mentioned in your tweet that I recognized. Also, the rmm charts from the various models have differing solutions for the mjo. I guess my question is do you believe the ecmwf over the other models currently with the mjo? None of the models really show the MJO moving much over the next two weeks, so it's hard to say what impact it will have down the line. And the MJO is just one piece of it all, of course. It's a tight rope though. We certainly don't want the MJO hanging out in 3-4-5, so we'll just have to see what transpires with its movement going forward. I'm less confident with Jan than I was a week ago though. Western 1/2 of Canada is likely to remain very cold with that ridge in the NPac....plenty of years where we haven't had that going for us See Weekly MJO Update from CPC: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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