olafminesaw Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Definitely unusual to see such a consistent signal for CAD at this range. Definitely gets my attention, especially since exact storm track matters less with these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 39 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Definitely unusual to see such a consistent signal for CAD at this range. Definitely gets my attention, especially since exact storm track matters less with these setups. 06z gfs continues to say it's a cold (non freezing) rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 5 hours ago, JoshM said: Euro tries to bring a little love in on the 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 0z Euro 06z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Awesome (new?) free product for Euro ensembles on the ECMWF website. Can't trust the ensembles to pick up on CAD, but worth looking at trends 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 I caught a bit of the news tonight and it’s heartbreaking to see what our neighbors in Kentucky and the other states are going through. Kinda hard to root for a pattern change that would bring more misery to those poor people. For once, I’d be happy to see above normal temps and no precipitation. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 11 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: I caught a bit of the news tonight and it’s heartbreaking to see what our neighbors in Kentucky and the other states are going through. Kinda hard to root for a pattern change that would bring more misery to those poor people. For once, I’d be happy to see above normal temps and no precipitation. I agree, would love cold and snow but for now am okay with warm and no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billypg70 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Tacoma said: I agree, would love cold and snow but for now am okay with warm and no rain. It's the unusual warmth that's causing the severe weather & we need the rain. If u want a gradual step down process to cold, To prevent the severe storms... I'm ok with that but, We need cold so we can prevent these types of events in winter. Prayers to all victims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Becoming pretty typical here to punt an entire winter month without a single threat. Onto January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Becoming pretty typical here to punt an entire winter month without a single threat. Onto January C'mon now, we all know winter doesnt arrive in the SE forum until Feb 29th. It will be here in due time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 GSP .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 220 PM EST Wednesday...A weak cold front will continue to cross the FA early Sun with little additional precip and maybe a bit of light snow across the higher NC mtn peaks. Colder air will filter in behind the front as a 1030 mb Can high over the Great Lakes region is progged to advance east and ridge down east of the Apps. This flow will bring near seasonal and below temps back to the region thru the period. The coldest air looks to push in from the NE Sun night into Mon, while the atmos remains quite dry. By Mon night things begin to change as the op models generally agree on a weak nrn GOM low developing in a split flow regime aloft, which will increase moist flux into the area. The 12z GFS has backed off on the timing and degree of QPF response Mon night thru Tue and yet is still quicker and moister than the current ECMWF. Thus, PoPs have been curtailed back Mon night and Tue to the lower chance range. Anticipated precip amts were also lowered, which makes a difference as far as possible p/type issues early Tue. For now, have a little snow across the higher NC terrain and a quick period of light snow/rain mix north of I-40 thru daybreak Tue. If the current drying trends continues, these lowly amts and p/types could be overdone. Yet, much uncertainty exists with this set-up and things could actually go the other way with more of a wintry threat as we get closer to the period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 JMA Weeks 3-4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 25 minutes ago, griteater said: JMA Weeks 3-4 I have a question. Do you think if we get that Greenland block that's more central to west based and mjo propagation, will we get into a colder regime east of the rockies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: I have a question. Do you think if we get that Greenland block that's more central to west based and mjo propagation, will we get into a colder regime east of the rockies? Im not Grit but if the Pacific doesn't ease up then there is going to be a tug of war with were the cold goes because the PNA is a formable beast currently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 48 minutes ago, griteater said: JMA Weeks 3-4 Grit great to see you posting. We have missed you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 22 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: I have a question. Do you think if we get that Greenland block that's more central to west based and mjo propagation, will we get into a colder regime east of the rockies? I do in January, yes - better chance for -EPO/+PNA as the MJO slowly propagates out of the W Pacific (but any long range forecast is no more than a best guess) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 +AAM is the highest today since mid July readings.Have my own opinion what drives this though. Feburary was a big +AAM month,central/eastern US was very cold. May was another +AAM month,another cold central/eastern US July was another +AAM month,another below normal temps for central/eastern US Carry on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Happy New Year! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Happy New Year! That's actually a perfect map for about 90% of our actual events. Higher mtns and NW Peidmont with the highest totals, snow line to about the NC/SC state line, and everything else I40 and North. Welcome to winter in the SE! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Well, it's a classic winter climo NC snow map that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 NAO looking great in the long range. Nice to have a least one thing trending in our favor for a change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said: Happy New Year! Damn decimals. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, jburns said: Damn decimals. IKR?! I am looking forward to the upcoming pattern madness though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 12:58 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Becoming pretty typical here to punt an entire winter month without a single threat. Onto January December has always been our 'dud' month. You can certainly have events but I wouldn't weigh losing this month as heavily as losing Jan or Feb. (and that's not just anecdotal- Eric Webb put together a really nice graphic a few weeks ago showing this) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 16 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: December has always been our 'dud' month. You can certainly have events but I wouldn't weigh losing this month as heavily as losing Jan or Feb. (and that's not just anecdotal- Eric Webb put together a really nice graphic a few weeks ago showing this) Yeah I can remember growing up and always remembering winter really starting around Christmas or New Years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 MJO Forecast on today's Euro Monthly is about as good as we could hope for. Not hanging out in 3-4-5 and not Usain Bolting from 7 to 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 hours ago, griteater said: MJO Forecast on today's Euro Monthly is about as good as we could hope for. Not hanging out in 3-4-5 and not Usain Bolting from 7 to 3 Griteater, I go to dacula mjo to see different rmm projections of mjo from various models. Have u been there? It has (bc) ecmwf , and gefs among others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 57 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: Griteater, I go to dacula mjo to see different rmm projections of mjo from various models. Have u been there? It has (bc) ecmwf , and gefs among others. Thanks for the reminder...he has a good site there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 8:27 AM, Billypg70 said: It's the unusual warmth that's causing the severe weather & we need the rain. If u want a gradual step down process to cold, To prevent the severe storms... I'm ok with that but, We need cold so we can prevent these types of events in winter. Prayers to all victims. I agree, we need or especially those folks need a pattern change, are we ever going to get cold? I realize winter doesn't start until next week so trying to hold off for better or cold and snowy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I'm actually really rooting for the west to stay troughy/stormy for a while. Don't know if everyone here has glimpsed at the snowpack levels for the west but they were really low. That region was teetering on the edge of crisis (and still in not great shape). I will gladly take a few weeks of warmth if it means the snowpack/reservoirs out west can get restored to healthier levels and we can enjoy a troughy pattern with better conscious. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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