SnowNiner Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 3 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said: That's my long range fly in the ointment fear; -PNA. Cold enters the CONUS but is stuck in a western trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 I know enough that a -PNA sucks. This one looks strong and steady for most of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 50 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I know enough that a -PNA sucks. This one looks strong and steady for most of the month. Seriously though, with 4 out of 5 being favorable we might get the pna to at least be neutral. Or not. I do however believe the pattern shifts around Christmas. Will it shift in our favor? We'll find out soon enough. Until then, I will believe in southern snow, unicorns and faries 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 35 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Seriously though, with 4 out of 5 being favorable we might get the pna to at least be neutral. Or not. I do however believe the pattern shifts around Christmas. Will it shift in our favor? We'll find out soon enough. Until then, I will believe in southern snow, unicorns and faries Yes. If we could just get the PNA to move to neutral, I think we could see some opportunities in the south. There are some subtle signs that the PNA is moving toward neutral after next week. Will it get there? Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 18z is an unholy torch for everyone but the west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 I'm intrigued about the time period after 12/23... I think we see some favorable patterns then. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said: That would do it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Bold model strategy coming into Christmas week. Lets' see if it pays off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 12z gfs says that there is no point really checking into this thread for a while unless you want to see some writhing and gnashing of teeth. see yall around christmas 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 6 hours ago, ILMRoss said: 12z gfs says that there is no point really checking into this thread for a while unless you want to see some writhing and gnashing of teeth. see yall around christmas For those that subscribe to the Joe Bastardi "snapback" theories (assuming they originated with him) this could have all the makings of one heckuva Jan/Feb. We are tremendously short on precip and cold air. If we cut the deficit on both at the same time, well, you know...... Patterns change, and the GFS ain't spittin the truth, I'm just sayin'.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Yeet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Yeet After the rain from this weekend is out of here, next week will be absolutely perfect for being outside FYI ~ Don't judge I'm just as depressed as you all are that winter is missing for the next two weeks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Looks like a storm around the 21-23 period then a real flip to winter. Could be a period with a western ridge and eastern trough so I think that week may need to be watched. The 21-23 storm may have some winter impacts but without a source of cold air before the system this will be a rainmaker likely. It usually takes a storm like that to flip the pattern here though… maybe some reason for optimism heading into end of the month tho 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 NAO forecasts continue to show negative trends after next weekend while the PNA shows positive trends during the same time. May just be a temporary trend or signs of a real pattern change. At this point, it's about the only thing SE winter weather lovers can hope for... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 The BAMx weather guy seems bullish on it. The reason I mention that is because over on 33andrain last year the posters were calling for the pattern change and BAMx was continually saying that isn't happening, to the point they sent out a tweet about folks calling them out on being wrong. Turns out BAMx was right about the pattern last year so I'm taking more stock in their LR thinking this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Pattern change is probably more believe able considering the MJO forecasts moving into p7 and p8 in 10-14 days.Also the AAM is forecasted to rise and I believe it will till the end of the month.But the weather is gonna do what the weather is gonna do so just observe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 GFS has big snowstorm at end of run for RDU. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 Interesting !! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 Finally, some honest to goodness unrealistic fantasy storms. Winter tracking '21-'22 has begun! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 We've been running perfectly opposite at 500mb anomalies Aug-Dec25th vs last year, Maybe the big -PNA will flip January 15th on? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 17 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: We've been running perfectly opposite at 500mb anomalies Aug-Dec25th vs last year, Maybe the big -PNA will flip January 15th on? At this point a neutral pna with everything else in the negative territory would be nice to see 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 Both 12zEuro ENS and 12zGFS ENS suggesting possibilities for cad-ish areas on Sunday/Monday the 19th and 20th. Standard caveats: 7-8 days out, timing of the high moving out of position, dependable moisture feed, etc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: That run had a seriously strong CAD! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: That run had a seriously strong CAD! Indeed. I prefer having low dp's already in place as opposed to the cold dry air filtering in as the moisture arrives. If anything, it kicks off an interesting few weeks during the heart of winter. Maybe we'll cash in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Starting the 20th begins an active period that may feature our first real tracking opportunity of the season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Why are the op runs so left and right? Not concerned with the snow or no snow but 6z to 12z run temps are day and night. Below freezing then in the 60’s+. What samples change that drastically in 6 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, RT1980 said: Why are the op runs so left and right? Not concerned with the snow or no snow but 6z to 12z run temps are day and night. Below freezing then in the 60’s+. What samples change that drastically in 6 hours? Usually happens when there's a pattern change coming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Euro tries to bring a little love in on the 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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