mwp1023 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 17 hours ago, Avdave said: Indeed, we are heading up this weekend and into early next week to NW NC West Jefferson is starting to get a good number of trees changing already (Poplar, Birch, Elm). Maples are just starting to get a little color and oaks are still green. Same for the parkway between Boone and West Jefferson. East slope into Wilkes county where I am is still pretty much green. We should be in business starting this weekend. I plan to go up on the 24th and stay through the 30th. That should be peak time for my location. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 2 hours ago, mwp1023 said: West Jefferson is starting to get a good number of trees changing already (Poplar, Birch, Elm). Maples are just starting to get a little color and oaks are still green. Same for the parkway between Boone and West Jefferson. East slope into Wilkes county where I am is still pretty much green. We should be in business starting this weekend. I plan to go up on the 24th and stay through the 30th. That should be peak time for my location. Thank you for the live update. We will probably be a little to early but hopefully early next week they will get cranking. Def will be in the boone-WJ stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Trending cooler at night next week. 42 for Concord Tuesday night. A bit of light frost wouldn't be surprising. Would imagine Statesville, Hickory etc will see an official frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 We have a La Niña which tends to give us a warmer and drier winter than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 On 9/25/2021 at 11:12 PM, Avdave said: Yep it shows up on the hourly report from KJQF Hey thanks for this. Just seeing it. Awesome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Wow, trending EVEN COLDER, For Concord Sat night-43 Sun night-41 Mon night-42 Patchy frost for sure if these verify. Always tends to take a nose dive around 6-630 during radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 9 hours ago, jburns said: We have a La Niña which tends to give us a warmer and drier winter than normal. Yeah we will probably squeeze out one minor event like the last two years if we are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 11 hours ago, jburns said: We have a La Niña which tends to give us a warmer and drier winter than normal. We've scored some pretty good storms during a la nina Last year was classified as a nina and we were wetter than usual and had no real heat. No, we didn't cash in(although some did much better than others), but it was hands down the best year for opportunities we've had in quite sometime. 2 hours ago, eyewall said: Yeah we will probably squeeze out one minor event like the last two years if we are lucky. Are you sure you're not related to @WidreMann? You've said this every year for at least the past decade regardless. This is the south. We take our chances and hope for the best and don't expect endless opportunities (although it would be nice). What we do get, is a shot or 3 at something frozen to play in. This isn't the NE or even the MA and sharing the channeling by your inner Eeyore from Sept to March, every single year for a decade, becomes really annoying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 2 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said: We've scored some pretty good storms during a la nina Last year was classified as a nina and we were wetter than usual and had no real heat. No, we didn't cash in(although some did much better than others), but it was hands down the best year for opportunities we've had in quite sometime. Last year never really had any Arctic air, just average temps. Models did give me a historic season, which materialized into one 1.2” overnight snow that was gone by 10 am the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 I was reading that the La Nina may be moderated because of a weak polar vortex that may allow colder air to slip south. This was noted as an influence last season. Living in the midlands of SC you always assume the worst but it sounds like we will get a few storms to at least follow along with. That all I can hope for down here so I might as well enjoy it. Otherwise, why the hell would you be on this forum? So enhance the level of disappointment in your life? Expect the worst, hope for the best and enjoy the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 I know no one wants to hear this but this is a pretty substantial extended dry streak we’re in. I know some areas got a ton of rain last week but it all feel in a few hours. Outside of that, and for areas that missed the heaviest of that, it’s been exceptionally dry going back to the second half of September. Looking at models, many areas may not see appreciable rain going into the end of the month. I think we’ve had 4 days total with measurable rain going back almost 4 weeks, albeit 2 of those were significant amounts. The lack of consistency of rain has been noticeable. At my farm in Franklin county, all ponds are several feet down as of this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Last year never really had any Arctic air, just average temps. Models did give me a historic season, which materialized into one 1.2” overnight snow that was gone by 10 am the next day Which was still better than the torch of the past few years. We live in the south, outside of the mountains, and nobody should ever be expecting to play in a winter wonderland, let alone to play for most of the season. I've had 9" of snow overnight that was gone by 10am the next day. It's the south. Enjoy it while it lasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 I'll take my chances. Last year we had average winter temps. It felt like winter in NC. We never got a good +PNA so no real cold air shots to sustain a good snowfall opportunity. In this part of the country we need an extreme combination to occur. The static-ness of last year did not afford that really. We might see one or two of those occur in a La Nina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 I am just looking forward to the cool down tomorrow night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 ^^^^^^^^^ THIS ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ With another reinforcing front a few days later, giving us a beautiful stretch of fall weather to take us into November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 CFS November 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 It doesn't get much more awesome than today with temps in the low 70s and dewpoints in the low 40s here...near ideal weather for outdoors! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Models going to be trending much more -PNA through the long range in the next few days. Maybe through November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Expect models to trend warmer in the LR for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Christian Morgan: It's that time where we start looking for our first freeze. For the Triad, it's usually around Oct 28th. On average, about a week earlier north and west. For Greensboro, it has come as early as Oct 2nd or as late as Dec 1. I don't see us getting to 32° over the next week. #ncwx https://t.co/xvPVw75DA1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 4 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Christian Morgan: It's that time where we start looking for our first freeze. For the Triad, it's usually around Oct 28th. On average, about a week earlier north and west. For Greensboro, it has come as early as Oct 2nd or as late as Dec 1. I don't see us getting to 32° over the next week. #ncwx https://t.co/xvPVw75DA1 We used to get them in mid November but lately it has been in late Nov or early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 On 10/19/2021 at 12:04 PM, yotaman said: We used to get them in mid November but lately it has been in late Nov or early Dec. We have also seen an almost perma-SER set up for years and years. It's tough to distinguish what is unfortunate November pattern vs. climate change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 On 10/15/2021 at 8:42 PM, buckeyefan1 said: ^^^^^^^^^ THIS ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ With another reinforcing front a few days later, giving us a beautiful stretch of fall weather to take us into November I will say it's been noticeable how warm we're staying this year in the Lowcountry. I'm keeping the pool good until at least Halloween, giving me about a 7 month swimming season. I don't see us dipping below 70° highs until then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 6 hours ago, nwohweather said: I will say it's been noticeable how warm we're staying this year in the Lowcountry. I'm keeping the pool good until at least Halloween, giving me about a 7 month swimming season. I don't see us dipping below 70° highs until then Some years the pool is good all year, minus a couple weeks in Jan I've done the pelican plunge a few times Jan 1st on Hunting Island and even the ocean temps aren't that bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 18 hours ago, nwohweather said: I will say it's been noticeable how warm we're staying this year in the Lowcountry. I'm keeping the pool good until at least Halloween, giving me about a 7 month swimming season. I don't see us dipping below 70° highs until then Looking good for my newly planted fescue root production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 14 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said: Some years the pool is good all year, minus a couple weeks in Jan I've done the pelican plunge a few times Jan 1st on Hunting Island and even the ocean temps aren't that bad You know, my family from Ohio did not honestly believe me that ocean temps were as warm as they are. Took them over to Folly and the water temp was 83, was just a look of pure shock. Even right now it's still 74° out there. Very swimmable this weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Just now, Avdave said: Well looks like Ill be using my AC more this winter/ Good thing our tech comes out tomorrow for the 2 nd service per our contract. Also the drought looks to continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Avdave said: Well looks like Ill be using my AC more this winter/ Good thing our tech comes out tomorrow for the 2 nd service per our contract. Also the drought looks to continue It could end up like that, but I'm leaning towards something similar to last year with nina to neutral as we head into spring. Also, there is no drought here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 chilly, spooky Halloween 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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