eyewall Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 17 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: If the remnants of Elsa miss us to the east this will not come true The latest runs are bringing it back in our direction but yeah we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 If the remnants of Elsa miss us to the east this will not come true I feel like I’m to far west anyway… . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 RAH going with a wide swath of 1-3” from the western triangle eastward in NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Man, this could be an interesting day Thursday. Runs keep moving the precip shield west, as I expected, and the area east of the track looks primed for some severe weather, possibly tornadoes as we often see. Long story short: there should be some very heavy rain (3-4 in) over a swath of central NC with an increasing tornado threat in the eastern half of the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Man, this could be an interesting day Thursday. Runs keep moving the precip shield west, as I expected, and the area east of the track looks primed for some severe weather, possibly tornadoes as we often see. Long story short: there should be some very heavy rain (3-4 in) over a swath of central NC with an increasing tornado threat in the eastern half of the state Agreed. Not sure if it will get Crabtree going but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 On Social media, the outlets seem now to know which way to go. Some say the heavier rain is east of 95 and some say it is west of Durham and out towards the Triad and Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Avdave said: On Social media, the outlets seem now to know which way to go. Some say the heavier rain is east of 95 and some say it is west of Durham and out towards the Triad and Charlotte. For rain, I’m liking the model trends. I might actually have a chance for 1”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: For rain, I’m liking the model trends. I might actually have a chance for 1”. I hope it happens for you there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 11 hours ago, magpiemaniac said: For rain, I’m liking the model trends. I might actually have a chance for 1”. Some of the guidance actually brings the heaviest rain west of Raleigh now, your way. Looks like a good soaker for much of the Piedmont 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Some of the guidance actually brings the heaviest rain west of Raleigh now, your way. Looks like a good soaker for much of the Piedmont The 11:00 AM cone definitely took a westward shift to the west compared to 8:00 AM. Still expect RAH to ignore the models and NHC guidance and forecast 0.1” of light rain for me. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: The 11:00 AM cone definitely took a westward shift to the west compared to 8:00 AM. Still expect RAH to ignore the models and NHC guidance and forecast 0.1” of light rain for me. j/k Haha, and I expect them to be right too! We've found so many creative ways of having boring weather around here lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Haha, and I expect them to be right too! We've found so many creative ways of having boring weather around here lately If I don’t see a big red L in the sky just east of my house tomorrow afternoon, I’ll be gutted. We’ve had different types of Ls lately with long dry spells and busted forecasts. I’m excited to (maybe) see some interesting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 No real heat up to the midway point of meteorological summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 No real heat up to the midway point of meteorological summer. That’s awesome! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 38 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: No real heat up to the midway point of meteorological summer. Yeah this has been an ideal season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 Big storm blowing up! High winds some pea size hail and torrential rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: No real heat up to the midway point of meteorological summer. Still hot enough for me, lol. I wish it was October already 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 53 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Big storm blowing up! High winds some pea size hail and torrential rainfall. What is this “rainfall” of which you speak? What sorcery is this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Avdave said: Still hot enough for me, lol. I wish it was October already No kidding! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 KATL has had only six 90+ days YTD. They're projected to have no more than ~7-9 90+ through 7/17, with no major heat or dry period through 7/24 per model consensus. That means KATL will have a decent chance to not exceed 12 90+ YTD through July 31. I thought it would be fun to speculate on what it would mean based on climo (records back to 1879) for Aug-Oct 90+ days if KATL were to not exceed 12 90+ through July: - 37 years back to 1879 with 12 or fewer 90+ through July - Not even a single one of these 37 years exceeded 13 90+ days during Aug-Oct - The average of these 37 was only 7 90+ days for Aug-Oct, which is a mere half of the average of 14 for all years - So, not even one of the 37 even hit the average of 14 - The average for the other 105 years is ~16.5, well over double the 37 years with 12 or fewer 90+ through July What about the hottest day in Aug-Oct? - For the 37 years with 12 or fewer 90+ days through July, the average hottest day in Aug-Oct was only 92.4 vs the average hottest Aug-Oct day for the other 105 years of 95+. - For all 37 years, the hottest day in Aug-Oct was only 97 (that was in 1927) with only 5 of the 37 years having the hottest day of 95+ and 26 of the 37 having the hottest Aug-Oct day of only 93 or lower. So, the climo implications of the number of 90+ highs at KATL staying low through July are huge for Aug-Oct as far as the relative lack of intense heat is concerned. That is largely because the relatively moist soil conditions that keep heat in check through July normally persist beyond July. So, I'm quite curious to see where KATL ends up as of 7/31. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 Fox Weather coming this year along with a new streaming weather service from The Weather Channel https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2021/07/fox-news-weather-channel/619408/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 KATL had 11.51" of rainfall in May and June, combined. That makes it the 18th wettest out of 143 (~87th percentile). I looked at all May-June periods at 10"+ of rainfall at KATL through 2020, which is 31 of them (22% of them). 25 of the 31 had July hottest below the long-term average July hottest of 95.4. Wet soils are clearly helping to keep Atlanta highs down. So far this month, the hottest at KATL is only 89 and that may not change through the next couple of days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Hopefully those of us that have been left out of the rain train will get to cash in this weekend into next week. I'm still kinda impressed cold fronts are even making it this far south, to die in the Bermuda high graveyard, in mid July. (Un)fortunately if this pattern continues our chances for tropical mischief really increases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 Cutoff low coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 RAH’s point forecast gives me 0.85” of rain through Monday. Definitely taking the under on that one. Bet the streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 No mention yet of smoke in the RAH disco yet. Should be impacting our area most Wed-Friday. Mostly high level smoke but probably some impact to air quality/visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 It's already smoky today here. Glad we got this rain because it looks pretty dry next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Another heat dome is set to expand next week. It could overtake much of the country. https://t.co/locx3LR1dT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Another heat dome is set to expand next week. It could overtake much of the country. https://t.co/locx3LR1dT It's behind a paywall. How much of the country and how much above average? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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