PantherJustin Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 hours ago, NCSNOW said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 hours ago, NCSNOW said: Nope. Nope. Nope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Nope. Nope. Nope I don’t think I’m in the mood for this again after yesterday. RAH’s discussion from this morning: “The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will feature variably to mostly cloudy and cool conditions on Wed, with a combination of stratocumulus in nely flow and increasing mid-high level moisture in swly flow aloft. Low/mid-level warm air advection will then rapidly strengthen overnight-early Thu, preceding the aforementioned deamplifying shortwave trough and atop the cold air damming surface ridge. Rain, another widespread soaker with over an inch QPF, will consequently develop nwd and become widespread overnight into Thu morning. And with the surface wet bulb freezing line likely in the vicinity of the I-85 corridor Thu morning, another episode of freezing rain appears likely over the climatologically-favored nw Piedmont. Any such freezing rain would be self-limiting and change over to a cold rain by late morning to midday, given that the parent high will be in the process of retreating through ON. Strong stability within the cold air damming regime will be resistant to erosion, however, so high temperatures on Thu will likely be much cooler than national blended guidance, likely ranging from upr 30s and 40s over the Piedmont, to 50s (or possibly some 60s) over the srn Coastal Plain.“ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 47 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Definitely looks like another traditional CAD area storm. As sick as I am of rain, I'll continue taking it over that stuff. Unless this trends differently, I don't see anything (currently) to track for my area for the next 7-10 days. I’m with you I was just above freezing this past event and I’m fine with that not having ice. Hope im as fortunate this next system also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 FROM LARRY COSGROVE This is a formula for entrenched, low-latitude cold and cases of heavy snow and ice. But given that the first piece of energy in the series will be further north, the scenario I have constructed is for a Colorado cyclone to progress eastward into Virginia, then curl up along the coastline of the Mid-Atlantic, New England and Maritime Province. Timing is uncertain, but using the ECMWF ensemble package, between February 25-28 should fit. I do not think we get out of the rest of calendar winter without yet another major weather event. If the next two in the series, acting with a motherlode in the Great Lakes region like we have currently, an area from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard (probably minus the Deep South, but you never know....) could be hit with major snow and mixed precipitation potential. Given that the 10MB circumpolar vortex is again unified and deepening, I think that we start to see meaningful warm-ups below 40 N Latitude in the last week of March. With thunderstorm threats. But it's going to take some time, this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z GFS has high north like 0z euro. So good news if you dont want ice. Also keeps the 33 degree rain streak going lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Still says lights out here. Almost 1" of ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z GFS/CMC are still ICE Storm up this way on Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z GFS/CMC are still ICE Storm up this way on Thursday Big ice storm on CMC. Nasty signal showing up for sure. GFS under doing cad IMO somewhat considering position snd strength for our geography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 @Buddy1987 don't look at the icon, it's a devastating ICE STORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Could definitely see severe with this setup @buckeyefan1. I think a nasty squall line will develop in scream across the upstate and southern piedmont. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z UK also has ICE Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Could definitely see severe with this setup @buckeyefan1. I think a nasty squall line will develop in scream across the upstate and southern piedmont. It looks that way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Don’t like this signal a bit. Big hit on several as is and GFS always undershoots CAD. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, btownheel said: Don’t like this signal a bit. Big on several as us and GFS always undershoots CAD. . Yeah waiting on the NAM to get in range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Anyone have 12z Euro for late week storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonah Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z Euro tries to keep place like Lynchburg, Roanoke, and other areas that were hit hard yesterday below freezing most of the day Thursday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The Euro even gives DC and mid Atlantic a nice front end thump of snow before changing over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Phew, thankful for this pattern. My mud is not as wet so we def need more rain here Eff this pattern, just give me 60s and some dryness so I can work in the yard without hip waders 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z EURO ZRSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Nam showing some Freezing Rain along the Escarpment Tuesday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 18z ICON just laid the smack down for freezing rain on Thursday. Would be a devastating ice storm for many if that model is even remotely close. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: 18z ICON just laid the smack down for freezing rain on Thursday. Would be a devastating ice storm for many if that model is even remotely close. Showing a deep wedgie for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 All the way into the upstate. Wow! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Nope. Don’t want. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Nope. Don’t want. It would be fitting that the cherry on top of a winter pattern that scores everyone in the lower 48 BUT the upper SE while drenching us in 20 cumulative inches of 33 degree rain would be a significant followed by a straight brutal ice storm that causes a lot of damage... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, WXNewton said: 18z ICON just laid the smack down for freezing rain on Thursday. Would be a devastating ice storm for many if that model is even remotely close. Had mby at 30-31 with a touch over 1.5” of freezing rain 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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