griteater Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 10:45 PM, Kathy said: Is the whining thread or the long term discussion thread? Expand Kathy coming in strong with post #1. Boom Euro sounding at Greensboro for 1AM Tues has 32 deg at the sfc with a +10C warm nose...probably as big a warm nose as you'll ever see with sfc at freezing or below 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 10:46 PM, WXNewton said: 18z para trended with more freezing rain for Tuesday storm, actually made a big leap south with ice. Expand Yeah this is far from written in stone. Anyone giving up on a potential CAD event 4 days out hasn’t been involved in too many. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 10:46 PM, WXNewton said: 18z para trended with more freezing rain for Tuesday storm, actually made a big leap south with ice. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 11:27 PM, griteater said: Expand It ain’t done trending either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 What the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 11:27 PM, griteater said: Expand I wanted to post that GIFs are kind of my specialty, but for some reason all of my files are too large to upload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 11:18 PM, cbmclean said: Model and time? Expand 18z GFS for 12z Tuesday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 11:37 PM, WXNewton said: I wanted to post that GIFs are kind of my specialty, but for some reason all of my files are too large to upload. Expand You can go to postimages.org > Choose Images (to select your image or animated gif) > use Direct Link option 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I am supposed to be skiing Wed / Thursday ext week at Cataloochee. Models are making me nervous. I keep hoping that crazy back and forth in the models will land on at least some snow there. . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 11:40 PM, NorthHillsWx said: 18z GFS for 12z Tuesday Expand Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 11:40 PM, NorthHillsWx said: 18z GFS for 12z Tuesday Expand You don't get good weather with temp extremes like that <40miles apart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 9:39 PM, frazdaddy said: Daffodils will be popping in 2 weeksThey have been showing up for three weeks. Not sure that really means anything, as I have seen them in January and February in cold winters and warm winters.Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 2:00 AM, CaryWx said: You don't get good weather with temp extremes like that That’s a decent severe signal in some instances. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GSP....... .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Fri: The seemingly endless CAD event continuing early Monday appears likely to be eroded by a cold front and developing sfc low ahead of the upper trough covering the central third of the CONUS at that time. The front most likely will pass our area Monday night, into early Tuesday morning. 850mb LLJ preceding the front peaks near 60 kt into our lower Piedmont zones on both GFS and EC early Tuesday Even with the depicted nocturnal passage, the GFS manages to wring out up to 150 J/kg of SBCAPE, compared to about half that in the same area on the ECMWF. Near-sfc winds are a little veered, but still a period to watch, perhaps. Precip chances finally taper off in the wake of this front, and skies clear for a time, making part of Tuesday and Tuesday night our one break from active weather in this morning`s whole forecast. A dry and colder airmass will settle in behind this front. But then, the deterministic models are seemingly in good agreement on the aforementioned trough sharpening up as it swings in to the eastern CONUS later in the week, and depict Miller A-type cyclogenesis (or a close imitation) circa Thursday. This event still looks to bear some severe weather risk for the area; the GFS is quite bullish on scouring out the wedge, so it is more alarming in the severe weather sense than the EC, which keeps most of the area wedged in. A peek at some EC ensemble members does show a few which are more GFS-like. It`s a bit too early to place much confidence in this aspect of the forecast; the models which typically do better on temps at this range are suggesting the wedge will hold strong, so the forecast leans in their favor. Based on the current blended temp trends and vertical profiles, any mention of wintry weather in the medium range fcst is only warranted as a wintry mix at high mountain elevations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 32 degrees this morning in Cherryville. Apparently we had some geographical upheaval overnight. Always wanted live in the mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 12:46 PM, buckeyefan1 said: GSP....... .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Fri: The seemingly endless CAD event continuing early Monday appears likely to be eroded by a cold front and developing sfc low ahead of the upper trough covering the central third of the CONUS at that time. The front most likely will pass our area Monday night, into early Tuesday morning. 850mb LLJ preceding the front peaks near 60 kt into our lower Piedmont zones on both GFS and EC early Tuesday Even with the depicted nocturnal passage, the GFS manages to wring out up to 150 J/kg of SBCAPE, compared to about half that in the same area on the ECMWF. Near-sfc winds are a little veered, but still a period to watch, perhaps. Precip chances finally taper off in the wake of this front, and skies clear for a time, making part of Tuesday and Tuesday night our one break from active weather in this morning`s whole forecast. A dry and colder airmass will settle in behind this front. But then, the deterministic models are seemingly in good agreement on the aforementioned trough sharpening up as it swings in to the eastern CONUS later in the week, and depict Miller A-type cyclogenesis (or a close imitation) circa Thursday. This event still looks to bear some severe weather risk for the area; the GFS is quite bullish on scouring out the wedge, so it is more alarming in the severe weather sense than the EC, which keeps most of the area wedged in. A peek at some EC ensemble members does show a few which are more GFS-like. It`s a bit too early to place much confidence in this aspect of the forecast; the models which typically do better on temps at this range are suggesting the wedge will hold strong, so the forecast leans in their favor. Based on the current blended temp trends and vertical profiles, any mention of wintry weather in the medium range fcst is only warranted as a wintry mix at high mountain elevations. Expand So your saying we have a chance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 2:22 PM, strongwxnc said: So your saying we have a chance Expand I don’t think I can remember a Miller A that gave severe weather to the upstate. If it happens, this year would be the icing on the cake 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I was told there would be no severe weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 2:34 PM, buckeyefan1 said: I don’t think I can remember a Miller A that gave severe weather to the upstate. If it happens, this year would be the icing on the cake Expand If the models forecasted it the way this year has gone, there'd be no icing! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Nothing good will happen south of Virginia state line until this CAD is done. Need to start over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 2:46 PM, Chuck said: If the models forecasted it the way this year has gone, there'd be no icing! Expand True story Meanwhile........That’s a lot of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Luckily for western NC the models are showing less rain, shifting the heavy axis to eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Almost the entire state of Arkansas is going to get over a foot of snow the next 7 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I think flooding along the Red River, Mississippi River and others could be really bad this spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 That map makes me sick. Poor southeast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 4:28 PM, wncsnow said: I think flooding along the Red River, Mississippi River and others could be really bad this spring Expand Ok Noah! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I know it's been a frustrating weather week in the SE, especially when Dallas is expecting blizzard conditions Monday morning. There could be snow covering most of the U.S. next week except the SE and southern half of the West coast. However, another round of anomalous cold air builds in Canada the last week of the February and is poised to move south. I am not predicting another March 1980 storm but as crazy as this year has been, I wouldn't bet against anything at this point. Heck, I am not even confident with what falls from the skies next Wednesday and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 5:31 PM, chapelhillwx said: Ok Noah! Expand I would let you on the ark but we already have a jackass 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 5:47 PM, wncsnow said: I would let you on the ark but we already have a jackass Expand Ok that was funny. Hope your ark is sturdy, I don't think we will ever rebuild from it being somewhat wet the next couple weeks! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 5:54 PM, chapelhillwx said: Ok that was funny. Hope your ark is sturdy, I don't think we will ever rebuild from it being somewhat wet the next couple weeks! Expand Lol thanks for taking it in jest. I don't even know you but couldn't pass up the joke. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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