CaryWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 59 minutes ago, eyewall said: Ok you are right and I am sorry. I have not been doing well outside of weather with a friend permanently damaged health wise by COVID and he lost his dad to the illness. I suppose I let that carry over to my posts here without thinking it through first. Anyway, I am awaiting the RAH discussion to see their line of thought given the latest runs for next week. Good to focus on the important things eyewall and maybe consider the less potentially disappointing distractions. After all this is just weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Ok you are right and I am sorry. I have not been doing well outside of weather with a friend permanently damaged health wise by COVID and he lost his dad to the illness. I suppose I let that carry over to my posts here without thinking it through first. Anyway, I am awaiting the RAH discussion to see their line of thought given the latest runs for next week. I knew several people who lost loved ones to COVID and had family members in hospital and still ill with it. We are in this together fighting for one another and things will get better. Keeping you in my thoughts and prayers. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 hours ago, eyewall said: Ok you are right and I am sorry. I have not been doing well outside of weather with a friend permanently damaged health wise by COVID and he lost his dad to the illness. I suppose I let that carry over to my posts here without thinking it through first. Anyway, I am awaiting the RAH discussion to see their line of thought given the latest runs for next week. Praying for Better times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GEFS warmed up...Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 hours ago, BullCityWx said: PDII was very weak as well Actually meant 960MB for the the 93 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 hours ago, eyewall said: Ok you are right and I am sorry. I have not been doing well outside of weather with a friend permanently damaged health wise by COVID and he lost his dad to the illness. I suppose I let that carry over to my posts here without thinking it through first. Anyway, I am awaiting the RAH discussion to see their line of thought given the latest runs for next week. Hey Eyewall, Sorry for what your going through. I will keep you and your friends going through these tough times in my thoughts and prayers!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said: Hey Eyewall, Sorry for what your going through. I will keep you and your friends going through these tough times in my thoughts and prayers!! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Thank you all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Raleigh came in with a tough discussion to read for those hoping for next week: Significant model disagreements remain for Monday night into Tuesday morning. ECMWF has been taking the surface low west of the mountains while the GFS has been keeping a secondary low offshore. Recent runs of the GFS However have started to trend more towards the Euro, which would yield a warmer solution with most of the Mid-Atlantic in the warm sector. There will be an influence of northerly flow at the surface to begin the day with cold air trying to make its last efforts to move into the area before the strengthening surface low pressure system in the Deep South moves into the Ohio Valley. Biggest threat looks to be a brief period of freezing rain early Tuesday morning quickly changing to rain by late morning. Still more details needed to be sorted out for this period as uncertainty remains high. Tuesday both long range models are in good agreement that the aforementioned low pressure system from the Gulf will slightly strengthen and move up across GA and to the west of our region. Rainfall is expected to last through Tuesday ending late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Expect dry conditions on Wednesday with temperatures in the 50s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 18 z gfs v16 was further south and east fwiw for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: Raleigh came in with a tough discussion to read for those hoping for next week: Significant model disagreements remain for Monday night into Tuesday morning. ECMWF has been taking the surface low west of the mountains while the GFS has been keeping a secondary low offshore. Recent runs of the GFS However have started to trend more towards the Euro, which would yield a warmer solution with most of the Mid-Atlantic in the warm sector. There will be an influence of northerly flow at the surface to begin the day with cold air trying to make its last efforts to move into the area before the strengthening surface low pressure system in the Deep South moves into the Ohio Valley. Biggest threat looks to be a brief period of freezing rain early Tuesday morning quickly changing to rain by late morning. Still more details needed to be sorted out for this period as uncertainty remains high. Tuesday both long range models are in good agreement that the aforementioned low pressure system from the Gulf will slightly strengthen and move up across GA and to the west of our region. Rainfall is expected to last through Tuesday ending late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Expect dry conditions on Wednesday with temperatures in the 50s. Yeah that was a bit of a gut punch. Its completely reasonable to be negative about our chances now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 hours ago, eyewall said: Ok you are right and I am sorry. I have not been doing well outside of weather with a friend permanently damaged health wise by COVID and he lost his dad to the illness. I suppose I let that carry over to my posts here without thinking it through first. Anyway, I am awaiting the RAH discussion to see their line of thought given the latest runs for next week. Praying for you bud. Praying for your friends and family affected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 hours ago, eyewall said: Raleigh came in with a tough discussion to read for those hoping for next week: Significant model disagreements remain for Monday night into Tuesday morning. ECMWF has been taking the surface low west of the mountains while the GFS has been keeping a secondary low offshore. Recent runs of the GFS However have started to trend more towards the Euro, which would yield a warmer solution with most of the Mid-Atlantic in the warm sector. There will be an influence of northerly flow at the surface to begin the day with cold air trying to make its last efforts to move into the area before the strengthening surface low pressure system in the Deep South moves into the Ohio Valley. Biggest threat looks to be a brief period of freezing rain early Tuesday morning quickly changing to rain by late morning. Still more details needed to be sorted out for this period as uncertainty remains high. Tuesday both long range models are in good agreement that the aforementioned low pressure system from the Gulf will slightly strengthen and move up across GA and to the west of our region. Rainfall is expected to last through Tuesday ending late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Expect dry conditions on Wednesday with temperatures in the 50s. sheesh, I can't quite say I'm in agreement... I mean, I'm probably being heretical, I don't want to bet against the collective knowledge of a bunch of mets, but this feels a little reductive and throws too much influence to the Euro, which hasn't exactly been stellar. No model has been particularly stellar here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Gfs v16 sniffed out the late January snow before any other model. Just saying.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Hey all, couple of things to keep in mind for CADs as we go through another model cycle: 1. I generally don't like writing CADs and associated systems off until high resolution models get a crack at them. Seems pretty obvious, but in the equation governing the strength of CADs (which exists!) height of mountains is indeed a variable. topography is going to be better rendered on hi resolution models and mountains will be represented more accurately and not as smoothed out as globals. I trust them a little more! 2. Let's talk low pressure track. If you've been here a few years, it's probably been drilled into your mind that LPs can't just plow into wedges and stable air, and that's true! This is a true thing and generally low pressures will seek areas of lower pressure and ribbons of low level vorticity (almost always where the coastal front and CAD boundary meet). I think it's fair to be dubious of any low pressure track that rides up i95 if there's a 1035+ high anchored in the favored CAD region. Once again, this is something that high resolution models resolve a little better. 3. Now, one thing I want to clear up, is that it's perfectly reasonable, as the GFS showed, for a low pressure to track from Birmingham to Knoxville to Pittsburg. This is because you're on the other side of the Apps- there's no wedge here. In fact, lower pressures exist on the western fringe of the apps during CAD events, and some models are seeing this and tracking the parent low pressures up this lower side. The upper level vorticity, if it's spurring this, is likely too far away to really spark anything over the coast. Here's hoping the 00z cycles show some interesting solutions! 15 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 @ILMRoss you bring really good insight. Thank you. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Boy gfs looking like it’s going to be even more amped at 5h with s/w digging deep into the 4 corners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GFS coming in warmer, more amped. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 @ILMRoss awesome post! Thanks for the insight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 This GFS run is not going to be what we wanted. Everything’s evolving further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: This GFS run is not going to be what we wanted. Everything’s evolving further west I still don’t believe IMO that a 1034 HP parked up top will not at least deliver ice to the northern forum here. Low pressure is not that far off to where it could easily trend toward a better solution but overall not a good run agreed there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: I still don’t believe IMO that a 1034 HP parked up top will not at least deliver ice to the northern forum here. Low pressure is not that far off to where it could easily trend toward a better solution but overall not a good run agreed there Yea, that HP has trended weaker from the mid 1040’s from a couple days ago. Also, the arctic air orientation continues to bury it due south into the southern plains, so any high to the north of us is working with table scraps to send our way. I’m sure the CAD is underdone but the setup is fading for us to stand a chance against these more amped solutions. I think the slp track on this run was more reasonable than the euro but, yea, we don’t have much to work with on the cold air front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 This gfs run doesn’t get Raleigh below freezing through the next 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 pretty terrible cycle so far, my spiel on CADs isn't really relevant when your high is all the way in mid Quebec I'll give it a few more cycles but it will take some shifts to get out of the hole tonight put us in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I'm saving this, don't know if I have ever seen a temperature map like the UK shows here. 8 in Mississippi and almost 60 in Raleigh. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 So hypothetically, what would it take to get that arctic air pointed at us instead of just battering helplessly against the mountains. Where should the HP be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 hours ago, cbmclean said: So hypothetically, what would it take to get that arctic air pointed at us instead of just battering helplessly against the mountains. Where should the HP be? Pennsylvania Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 hours ago, wncsnow said: I'm saving this, don't know if I have ever seen a temperature map like the UK shows here. 8 in Mississippi and almost 60 in Raleigh. This is what I was talking about yesterday in our thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 06z GFS considerably colder than 00z with the Tuesday system. Has HP slightly stronger and further south and maintains a wedge look through the system. Verbatim freezing line stays on va border instead of shooting north in other runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 06z GFS considerably colder than 00z with the Tuesday system. Has HP slightly stronger and further south and maintains a wedge look through the system. Verbatim freezing line stays on va border instead of shooting north in other runsThis is something to watchNotice where the temperate change boundary line is on the 6z GEFS, the low tracks EAST of the Apps, up through GreenvilleSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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