Orangeburgwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 only goes out 144. Lot of this would be more. Alot is also sleet NC , frzng rai in SC Widespread .5" of solid ice (1.09:1 ratio for ZR)Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Feel like this is a huge euro run coming up. If it trends towards the ukmet/icon then I’ll be feeling pretty confident in a major winter storm. If it spits out a run similar to 00z or the 12zgfs then it’s still anyone’s guess with a slight lean towards rainstorm for Tuesday, imo. Toss the CMC there too for major winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 50 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Depends... President's Day 1979 was a 996 MB low with a 1050 high over the Great Lakes; the March 1993 Superstorm was a 990MB bomb with wind gusts over 140 MPH. PDII was very weak as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Euro appears to be slightly quicker with the cold push so far after Saturdays rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Yep. A little bit colder and further south and east with the cold. Not alot though. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Yep. A little bit colder and further south and east with the cold. Not alot though. TWEvery mile countsSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro appears to be slightly quicker with the cold push so far after Saturdays rain Still the slowest out of all the major models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1043mb at 111hrSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 hr 120 Raleigh is about 3 degrees colder CLT is around 1 or so than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 This run looks really cranked up...Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The low is about 6mb weaker and a bit further south (or maybe just slower?) and the hp is just a bit stronger, maybe 1mb. Definitely a trend to a colder more wintry possibility. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 This run was a small step in the right direction I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Slightly colder for CAD regions on the Tuesday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Instead of a 999 over Cincinatti, you have a 1008 over Atlanta. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Euro definitely made a step in the right direction, not far off from a major ice storm. I would put it more in the ICON, Para GFS, Canadian UKMET category but also the warmest of those, still closer to a major storm than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Yikes. Where did the low go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Baby steps...Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Improved from 00z but still on amped/warm side of 12z guidance. Clear as mud. if I had to guess right now I’d bet on an average outcome where we get a miller b and ice for the traditional cad regions. Have the edge of ice from say Athens,ga to greenwood, sc , to Charlotte, and just west of Raleigh. Who knows though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Improved from 00z but still on amped/warm side of 12z guidance. Clear as mud. if I had to guess right now I’d bet on an average outcome where we get a miller b and ice for the traditional cad regions. Have the edge of ice from say Athens,ga to greenwood, sc , to Charlotte, and just west of Raleigh. Who knows though. If I had to make a forecast for this event that’s exactly what I would do for this: trust climo. Seems to fit well averaging all model solutions as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, wake4est said: Yikes. Where did the low go? euro didn't form the coastal here did it? which is in question going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Burrel, I think you're pretty spot on there. I liked the Euro except that I think it is missing the redevelopment off the SC coast. I think that redevelopment will reduce the surge of warm air and help lock the cad in a bit more. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: euro didn't form the coastal here did it? which is in question going forward. It does for a Miller B coastal... but waits to do it till it’s off the NJ/NY coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: If I had to make a forecast for this event that’s exactly what I would do for this: trust climo. Seems to fit well averaging all model solutions as well Totally agree, I remember a storm in Jan of 2016 where models were trying to run the low right through the wedge particularly the GFS. A day or so just before the storm it started going with the other guidance and running it around the wedge and redeveloping on the coast. I think the Nam may do well with this storm once we get in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Totally agree, I remember a storm in Jan of 2016 where models were trying to run the low right through the wedge particularly the GFS. A day or so just before the storm it started going with the other guidance and running it around the wedge and redeveloping on the coast. I think the Nam may do well with this storm once we get in that time frame. Will be in range tomorrow Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 It's hard to keep up with all the different scenarios over the next 4 days. Would be a shame if my area got blanked (with cold rain again again again). I want access to a site with more models. What's the best site to pay for premium models? (EPS, ECMWF, etc...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Amazing snow map! Would be fantastic if verified! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 to 8 inches of rain in N GA up to CLT the next 8/9 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 It's hard to keep up with all the different scenarios over the next 4 days. Would be a shame if my area got blanked (with cold rain again again again). I want access to a site with more models. What's the best site to pay for premium models? (EPS, ECMWF, etc...)Weatherbell, $25/mo but man, you get a lot for your buck. (6z and 18z ECMWF are on there too)Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 It’s is pretty locked in that eastern Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas are going to get an major winter storm. Must be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, burrel2 said: It’s is pretty locked in that eastern Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas are going to get an major winter storm. Must be nice. And maybe multiple ones. This could be their March 1960 pattern. What a week to 10 days they are in store for based on the overall pattern evolution and the amount of cold on that side of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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