WXNewton Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: ICON straight up doesn't make sense. A strong low low passing just to our north, and temps never rise above 25 for many? The high stays in a pretty decent position for most of the storm and is right over the heart of NE snow pack, I assume the feed of cold air stays locked in and transporting NE winds over temps in the single digits and teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z GFS can't get the high out front fast enough and it's weaker, looks a lot like last nights Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: ICON straight up doesn't make sense. A strong low low passing just to our north, and temps never rise above 25 for many? With the ICON setup, most likely the primary low would track into E TN and die off, with a secondary low forming off Myrtle Beach / Wilmington. The models don’t handle those specifics with sfc low evolution along the wedge boundary very well out in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z ukmet matches up with the icon at 5h. Gfs para is a little faster with the southern wave but still a major winter storm. 12z gfs is more amped than other models with the southern wave and too warm for most, it appears to be on an island with that with the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 16 minutes ago, WXNewton said: The high stays in a pretty decent position for most of the storm and is right over the heart of NE snow pack, I assume the feed of cold air stays locked in and transporting NE winds over temps in the single digits and teens. But how does a low go north with those dynamics? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z ukmet matches up with the icon at 5h. Gfs para is a little faster with the southern wave but still a major winter storm. 12z gfs is more amped than other models with the southern wave and too warm for most, it appears to be on an island with that with the 12z runs. Who would have ever thought we would need a weaker low to give us wintery precip...Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: But how does a low go north with those dynamics? Yeah something doesn't seem right about that. I believe if it does run north toward TN it should be like hitting a wall and go under wedge and redevelop on the coast. I would say that this is going to need a few days to be resolved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 days out and the signal is still very much there. Consider that a win with the track record of the model runs for this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSchew Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I appreciate the specifics of dissecting each and every model run, but my main takeaway at this juncture is this: All the major ingredients are in place for an ice storm in CAD areas... We won’t know details for at least another 4 days Yes that’s cliché, but it can’t be said enough. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Yeah something doesn't seem right about that. I believe if it does run north toward TN it should be like hitting a wall and go under wedge and redevelop on the coast. I would say that this is going to need a few days to be resolved. Generally that is the right idea, but the more amplified and more negative tilt the southern wave is, the more warming you will see aloft, with added pressure to the southern edge of the wedge boundary to where it can be overwhelmed. Just depends on how it shakes out in the end. The various solutions are being presented on the modeling 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z Canadian more in line with Para GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Headed to Southern VA to see my son. I was really hoping to see some snow my DIL has never seen snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, WXNewton said: 12z Canadian more in line with Para GFS Canadian is a heck of a storm on Tuesday. It digs a much stronger slp closer to the mouth of the bay and raises heights over the NE. I am guessing these three factors allow more efficient cold air transport into the region? But yea, that’s a serious winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Eww. Para vs. OG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 And Le Canadien... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 So far a pretty encouraging model cycle if you want "something / anything" to fall in our neck of the woods (shout out todd rundgren) There's been a lot of posts about the general synoptics of CADs, and I'll try to outline some stuff later today/get into the weeds a little with a longer post later today about how they work and what we need to keep in mind for future cycles. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Nothing attractive about those map graphics at all. Just ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, wake4est said: And Le Canadien... Per that run this is falling into mid-upper 20’s in central N.C. Some sleet may be in play but those are the temps you need to maximize accrual and have these maps come even close to verifying. Takeaway is winter storm options are on the table 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The fly in the ointment with all this is A. appalachian mountains B. dense cold air. Overall, the cold air is very cold, but also very dense and shallow. It has a hard time making it past the Apps (unless you have a perfectly placed high), and even then, is shallow. = ice opportunities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, wake4est said: Eww. Para vs. OG. Also the hole on the para in the NC foothills is quite a bit of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, PackGrad05 said: The fly in the ointment with all this is A. appalachian mountains B. dense cold air. Overall, the cold air is very cold, but also very dense and shallow. It has a hard time making it past the Apps (unless you have a perfectly placed high), and even then, is shallow. = ice opportunities. Have to agree . I just don’t see this happening at this point. Better off to clear this out and take transitional chances. Pacific ruining it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The fly in the ointment with all this is A. appalachian mountains B. dense cold air. Overall, the cold air is very cold, but also very dense and shallow. It has a hard time making it past the Apps (unless you have a perfectly placed high), and even then, is shallow. = ice opportunities. We do need some cold at 900 to 925 Pack or else might be facing the flicker, flicker & out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The ukmet is a major hit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 47 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Who would have ever thought we would need a weaker low to give us wintery precip... Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Depends... President's Day 1979 was a 996 MB low with a 1050 high over the Great Lakes; the March 1993 Superstorm was a 990MB bomb with wind gusts over 140 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The canadian is showing more of what I think will transpire with a low a bit further east that will transfer to the coast a bit quicker. At this time of year, I don't expect to see a surface low run up the tennesee valley as far as some models are showing. A much quicker transfer to the coast will happen (miller b style). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Per that run this is falling into mid-upper 20’s in central N.C. Some sleet may be in play but those are the temps you need to maximize accrual and have these maps come even close to verifying. Takeaway is winter storm options are on the table That would be a horrible catastrophe if it verified 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 only goes out 144. Lot of this would be more. Alot is also sleet NC , frzng rai in SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Feel like this is a huge euro run coming up. If it trends towards the ukmet/icon then I’ll be feeling pretty confident in a major winter storm. If it spits out a run similar to 00z or the 12zgfs then it’s still anyone’s guess with a slight lean towards rainstorm for Tuesday, imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Feel like this is a huge euro run coming up. If it trends towards the ukmet/icon then I’ll be feeling pretty confident in a major winter storm. If it spits out a run similar to 00z or the 12zgfs then it’s still anyone’s guess with a slight lean towards rainstorm for Tuesday, imo. Was just thinking, the Icon and UKMet have a very similar look with more (and ideal) spacing between the southern wave and the SE Canada TPV to produce a winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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