BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: You really have to be 30 or below for efficient icing. Once you close in on 32 it is pretty much over. A lot of times models don't do well with the self-limiting properties. You really need an optimal CAA feed. The 1034 MB high over NYS isn’t optimal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: The 1034 MB high over NYS isn’t optimal? It is but I would rather see 1040's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 As long as we don’t get ZR, I’m content 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The 1034 MB high over NYS isn’t optimal? it's actually 1044 This time it looks like we will not have the marginal cold issues to deal with. I know lakes lows have screwed us over the last few years. 13 minutes ago, eyewall said: It is but I would rather see 1040's. This is true, but it's also about the gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, WeatherWeenie87 said: it's actually 1044 This time it looks like we will not have the marginal cold issues to deal with. I know lakes lows have screwed us over the last few years. This is true, but it's also about the gradients. Wrong storm. There’s a thread for the weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Wrong storm. There’s a thread for the weekend event. So many threads for these storms Guess that's a good problem to have! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 51 minutes ago, eyewall said: You really have to be 30 or below for efficient icing. Once you close in on 32 it is pretty much over. A lot of times models don't do well with the self-limiting properties. You really need an optimal CAA feed. Exactly. Water freezing releases latent heat so when you’re only a degree or two away from freezing it’s as you said very self limiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 57 minutes ago, eyewall said: It is but I would rather see 1040's. So picky lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Not to be a poo poo here but for the immediate triangle next Tues I think we are going to be same as it ever was this winter. It's just the tendency this year. Not quite cold enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 18z EPS came in colder, here we go again...Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: Yep I just asked Brad P , he said the model he used in the post is the IBM GRAF Model... anyone know anything about this model? @msuwx is it accurate? It’s had its ups and downs. Did fairly well with convection. It was way too cold with the event a couple weekends ago. It was pretty good with the last weekend. Did well with the rate of clearing today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: 18z EPS came in colder, here we go again... 18z EPS was the first run of the last few that moved a little more wintry instead of the other way. The next, say, day and a half should paint the big picture in terms of how this is going to shake out. If we were to hold the look of this latest EPS Mean, it's going to be hard to avoid a noteworthy winter storm IMO given the cold, dry airmass underneath that high, and with growing support for a healthy swath of precip associated with the southern stream wave. It could go the other way as well with less high pressure and a more negatively tilted, and stronger, southern wave (warmer). At 500mb, we can see on this run how the southern wave is a little more positive tilt and farther south thru the Rio Grande...and the heights are pressing south a little more over Maine thru NY. Accordingly, at the same timeframe, here we can see a bit stronger damming high configuration on this run with a little more suppression to the low in the Gulf 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, msuwx said: It’s had its ups and downs. Did fairly well with convection. It was way too cold with the event a couple weekends ago. It was pretty good with the last weekend. Did well with the rate of clearing today. Ha, I watch Mike Maze on WRAL and he had forecasted and expected clouds to hang in. You could tell he was beaming about the clouds moving out quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, griteater said: 18z EPS was the first run of the last few that moved a little more wintry instead of the other way. The next, say, day and half should paint the big picture in terms of how this is going to shake out. If we were to hold the look of this latest EPS Mean, it's going to be hard to avoid a noteworthy winter storm IMO given the cold, dry airmass underneath that high, and with growing support for a healthy swath of precip associated with the southern stream wave. It could go the other way as well with less high pressure and a more negatively tilted, and stronger, southern wave (warmer). At 500mb, we can see on this run how the southern wave is a little more positive tilt and farther south thru the Rio Grande...and the heights are pressing south a little more over Maine thru NY. Accordingly, at the same timeframe, here we can see a bit stronger damming high configuration on this run with a little more suppression to the low in the Gulf Impressive with the banana high structure coupled with the 1029-1032 up above both those highs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Tonight's WPC Forecast map for Day 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The icon just dropped a lot of...freezing rain or sleet I’m just not sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: The icon just dropped a lot of...freezing rain or sleet I’m just not sure. Well over an inch of qpf here with temps in low 20s.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Tonight's WPC Forecast map for Day 7 Thats usually a synoptic slam dunk for our Back Yards in the Carolinas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Well over an inch of qpf here with temps in low 20s.... My guess is sleet with the conditions present 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The wedge on the ICON extends to Anniston, AL. Freeing rain almost to the Charleston peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 22 minutes ago, griteater said: Tonight's WPC Forecast map for Day 7 Well someone earlier was saying they they wish they had a 1044. Ask and ye shall receive. Until the next run taketh away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Seems the ICON likes to go a little too extreme with CAD. A bias to look for in the future. It's really backed off on the weekend, and now it's showing this madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 In depressing news, here is a graph I made of the long sad story of the 2m temp at 1 pm for one particular gridpoint in central NC according to the GEFS for the days Feb 14 - 16. A tale of opportunities missed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFS is torchSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The GFS has basically no wintry precip south of the NC/VA border the next 8 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: The GFS has basically no wintry precip south of the NC/VA border the next 8 days I still can’t believe how bad this model has become. Just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I still can’t believe how bad this model has become. Just awful. The Canadian is trending that way too unfortunately. Already slower with the cold push and much warmer Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Look at that cool representation of a leeside eddy coming off of the Appalachian chain in GA, SC, and NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 It's eerily quiet.. Probably because of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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