Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Yes but the cold air retreating allows the LP amplification in my view not the other way around. Modeling this cold vortex has and remains to be problematic. If I were a betting man...we will not see this brutal cold in the triangle...or only for a very short-lived period of time. It will still be chilly (not warm) for sure but this is February after all Fair enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, WeatherWeenie87 said: The a branch breaker for sure! Better charge your phones! That’s exactly where you’d expect it to be too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 ICON is considerably warmer than 12z with considerably less precip. Does not have the weekend ice storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: ICON is considerably warmer than 12z with considerably less precip. Does not have the weekend ice storm Agreed much warmer run and more north with the initial wave on thur/fri. Idk about you all but I can see this easily being a cold rain for even up my way and the models being too aggressive with the cold push. Wouldn’t shock me anyhow considering the run to run inconsistencies this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 What's weird is the post Brad just made for Thursday night is showing widespread ICE and colder temps... not sure what model he's using Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 models have over estimated snow this year now watch them underestimate the ice and we get crushed. crazy times i tell ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 20 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: That’s exactly where you’d expect it to be too The heavier the precip I tend to favor a rain solution when the CAD is marginal. I get that the models often underestimate the CAD, but as shown, I'll favor the warmer forecast. Not to mention I'd rather not drive home from Cincy during an ice storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 hours ago, PantherJustin said: Am I the only person who actually would like an ice storm? Yes I lived thru 2002. I just like extreme weather No, you are not. This comes up periodically during ice storms being modeled. While I realize a lot of people do not like them I do. I like all wild weather frozen to summer storms etc. granted no power sucks. It a real ice storm is a wonder to see. I have been in several large ice storms and while nerve wracking at times with the popping of trees, watching it unfold I find very interesting. I would rather have ice than rain and 33 any day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: What's weird is the post Brad just made for Thursday night is showing widespread ICE and colder temps... not sure what model he's using It almost looks like the NAM, but for later in the weekend, not Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: What's weird is the post Brad just made for Thursday night is showing widespread ICE and colder temps... not sure what model he's using 18z NAM it appears. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, msuwx said: 18z NAM it appears. The NAM I'm looking at is warmer than what he's showing... he must be showing an in house model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The NAM I'm looking at is warmer than what he's showing... he must be showing an in house model Yeah it could be the GRAF. I’m not at a computer right now to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Yep I just asked Brad P , he said the model he used in the post is the IBM GRAF Model... anyone know anything about this model? @msuwx is it accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 IBM GRAF has done fairly well in some the past NE storms, but I do not access to the model or any statistics. Just my observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Disappointing for Triad, but I would settle for it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS says enjoy 33-35 and rain, repeat, repeat, repeat for the triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 53 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: ICON is considerably warmer than 12z with considerably less precip. Does not have the weekend ice storm What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I get that it’s easy to be frustrated but the ICON clearly has the storm. It oscillated slightly but it’s still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Yep I just asked Brad P , he said the model he used in the post is the IBM GRAF Model... anyone know anything about this model? @msuwx is it accurate? if interested in reading material. AMD, Cray, Nvidia Behind Massive NCAR Supercomputer Upgrade (nextplatform.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: I get that it’s easy to be frustrated but the ICON clearly has the storm. It oscillated slightly but it’s still there. The GFS is frustrating for each threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: What? It barely advances the freezing line past the Virginia border counties and does so as precipitation moves out. It was well north and had less precip. Storm is still there but not an ice storm for the Carolinas as had been depicted on the earlier 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It barely advances the freezing line past the Virginia border counties and does so as precipitation moves out. It was well north and had less precip. Storm is still there but not an ice storm for the Carolinas as had been depicted on the earlier 12z run So am I just imagining what it shows for Durham? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The ups and downs this season is worse than the ups and downs in Days of Our Lives. It sucks there is not as much data going into the models to produce accurate results. I hope the Triad folks get a snowy surprise this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WeatherWeenie87 said: The ups and downs this season is worse than the ups and downs in Days of Our Lives. It sucks there is not as much data going into the models to produce accurate results. I hope the Triad folks get a snowy surprise this weekend! Yeah, I think I will just wait until the Hrrr gets into range and go from there. Right now it's a coin toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Think we may be over looking the biggest ice threat, Friday night/ Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The terrible trend in our models today is the lobe of polar vortex getting stretched and elongated instead of pressing southward some and pressing the cold with it. Last 4 GFS runs: Over the course of 5 runs, the core of the lobe has shifted from Duluth to north of Maine. Now, I don't think the eastward movement is terrible; our high is going to follow this feature and for our purposes I'm not sure that lateral high placement matters a ton when it's already so large and CAD is likely. But the last frame (and the euro/ukmet has this look too), with the vortex getting stretched like a piece of overworked bubblegum, is no bueno, because it keeps our high and our cold press to the north. Whether or not this is going to occur or not is beyond me; at this point you're basically guessing and teasing out fluid dynamics and if it "looks right". I don't favor any solution, it's been a humbling last few weeks and nailing down patterns has proved to be like grabbing a greased watermelon. But I think this is a reasonable solution and we should be prepared if it continues to trend like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 18z GEFS mean has a significant ice storm Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 For those who haven’t looked, GSP seems about as confident as everyone else http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off just went out and put a little gas in my generator that I bought during the December 2005 ice storm. Started right up with one gentle pull. Tuesday morning at 200AM when it’s freezing rain and 27 degrees, 10 mules won’t be able to start it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 You really have to be 30 or below for efficient icing. Once you close in on 32 it is pretty much over. A lot of times models don't do well with the self-limiting properties. You really need an optimal CAA feed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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