WXNewton Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: It could definitely go that route. If you were going to ask me for a perfect scenario for a multi-day freezing drizzle event, this is pretty much it. Rare around these parts but so is the cold air That would be worse case scenario for car accidents. I remember light icing events where models and even the radar had trouble detecting the moisture and many roads and bridges becoming impassable. Again this seems like something we haven't seen in a while but can lead to many issues with travel. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: Yeah, it's really the perfect recipe for a multi-day freezing rain event. Yeah, one thing that gives me extreme pause (like extreme pause) is how many impulses dive under the high from Thursday-Tuesday. While is does seem like most models are beginning to hone in on some "grand finale" type solution early next week, it seems inevitable that one of the prelude impulse will rise up and become slightly more amped/hold its integrity a little more and spread some more precipitation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: In the next 84hrs Bull? I would say for areas N&W of 85 in the triangle for sure, possibly further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Full WPC guidance here https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=24&ptype=icez 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 22 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Also tries hard to have mostly sleet N&W of 85 in the triad and triangle. Seems like it would be a mix of freezing drizzle and any heavier precip would be sleet based on soundings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, PantherJustin said: Am I the only person who actually would like an ice storm? Yes I lived thru 2002. I just like extreme weather I like weather. One of the reasons I do, is many times over my long life in North Carolina it has been extreme. An ice storm in 1967 that paralyzed NC for the better part of a month to the hurricanes. The snow storms, that time a half inch of grauple brought traffic in Raleigh to a stand still leaving hundreds of motorist stranded overnight. Those times hold some very interesting memories , good and bad but I got something out of every event. At the end of the day it doesn't matter what we want or don't want it's going to be what it will be. The interest in interesting weather is why most are here I think. I know it is for me. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: I like weather. One of the reasons I do, is many times over my long life in North Carolina it has been extreme. An ice storm in 1967 that paralyzed NC for the better part of a month to the hurricanes. The snow storms, that time a half inch of grauple brought traffic in Raleigh to a stand still leaving hundreds of motorist stranded overnight. Those times hold some very interesting memories , good and bad but I got something out of every event. At the end of the day it doesn't matter what we want or don't want it's going to be what it will be. The interest in interesting weather is why most are here I think. I know it is for me. Not many memories from 33 and rain but 25 and freezing rain will create an everlasting memory. I think for me it's something that takes the ordinary daily living away and for a day or two you can experience something that is extreme. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 ICON has a warning criteria ice event on Saturday for RDU and CLT metros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: ICON has a warning criteria ice event on Saturday for RDU and CLT metros. Looks like a good chunk of NC actually. Especially north of 40 and N/W of 85. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 It could be lights out for people before Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 @BornAgain13 12z Icon between 60-66 coming in much colder at 2m. Thurs night may be a very sneaky event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z ICON has an ICE Storm on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Serious question: What are the chances that a lot of Valentine’s deliveries will be messed up for Saturday? My wife pulled the old “oh, don’t bother getting me anything” trick, but I’m not falling for that one. LOL 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, magpiemaniac said: Serious question: What are the chances that a lot of Valentine’s deliveries will be messed up for Saturday? My wife pulled the old “oh, don’t bother getting me anything” trick, but I’m not falling for that one. LOL Some things you just don't want to risk! TW 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Serious question: What are the chances that a lot of Valentine’s deliveries will be messed up for Saturday? My wife pulled the old “oh, don’t bother getting me anything” trick, but I’m not falling for that one. LOLGoing by the ICON, a lotSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: Serious question: What are the chances that a lot of Valentine’s deliveries will be messed up for Saturday? My wife pulled the old “oh, don’t bother getting me anything” trick, but I’m not falling for that one. LOL I recommend you don't fall for that lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 If this comes to pass, I look forward to watching the northern transplants in Raleigh attempt to drive to work on ZR at 20 degrees... "'Cause they are used to that up north...." No offense to northern transplants in Raleigh who view this board (you're obviously excluded) 6 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 ICON is an ice disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Saturday morning per GFS , More ICE in Northern NC, Southern VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Something to remember, this CAD has a direct connection to the parent HP over Canada. Once we start getting the northeasterly wind feed setup later this week, I have a hard time seeing the wedge breaking until the HP moves out of position offshore, which wont' happen until next week. It's honestly going to only get stronger as time goes on and the HP buildings into the Dakotas and eventually slides east. So we could be looking at several days of freezing rain/sleet coinciding with the STJ impulses that are coming through. The models will likely trend towards this solution over time. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 My older neighborhood in Charlotte is surrounded by massive pine with willow oak trees all around with atleast 20 50+ foot trees surrounding my property and backyard (with powerlines running through a line of trees) . A ice storm would absolutely devastate the area. All the established neighborhoods of Charlotte are very tree heavy. I remember the terrible ice storm years bac in 2014 when I lived in High Point NC that knocked out power for 4+ days to most of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Something to remember, this CAD has a direct connection to the parent HP over Canada. Once we start getting the northeasterly wind feed setup later this week, I have a hard time seeing the wedge breaking until the HP moves out of position offshore, which wont' happen until next week. It's honestly going to only get stronger over as time goes on and the HP buildings into the Dakotas and eventually slides east. So we could be looking at several days of freezing rain/sleet coinciding with the STJ impulses that are coming through. The models will likely trend towards this solution over time. Question is, how far south the wedge will go... Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z ICON also looks like major ICESTORM for Tuesday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Question is, how far south the wedge will go... Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Hopefully NOT to Greenville SC! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Not to fear monger, but being it’s been nearly 20 years since our last major ice storm in Raleigh, a significant amount of ice would be particularly damaging. GFS still on the warm side of guidance. I do not believe it’s capturing a locked in wedge accurately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamant Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Not to fear monger, but being it’s been nearly 20 years since our last major ice storm in Raleigh, a significant amount of ice would be particularly damaging. GFS still on the warm side of guidance. I do not believe it’s capturing a locked in wedge accurately we did have a few major wind events clear out some of the trees/branches plus I think the maintenance of trimming branches near power lines has improved since the last one but you are correct in that there is a lot of potential damage to be done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, adamant said: we did have a few major wind events clear out some of the trees/branches plus I think the maintenance of trimming branches near power lines has improved since the last one but you are correct in that there is a lot of potential damage to be done. Yea, but wind doesn’t stress a tree in the same manner. It doesn’t prune them like ice weight does. Any weakness will be exposed, particularly pines, but hardwoods will drop a lot of branches as well. Definitely a concern given the time period since our last significant ice event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ObiWanKarlNobi Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Longtime lurker here. I just registered an account so I could ask a question. You guys seem to be taking this storm way more seriously then anything else this winter. Am I correct in thinking that there is higher confidence than usual that this will pan out? Should I start preparing for an ice storm and a multi-day power outage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, ObiWanKarlNobi said: Longtime lurker here. I just registered an account so I could ask a question. You guys seem to be taking this storm way more seriously then anything else this winter. Am I correct in thinking that there is higher confidence than usual that this will pan out? Should I start preparing for an ice storm and a multi-day power outage? 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, ObiWanKarlNobi said: Longtime lurker here. I just registered an account so I could ask a question. You guys seem to be taking this storm way more seriously then anything else this winter. Am I correct in thinking that there is higher confidence than usual that this will pan out? Should I start preparing for an ice storm and a multi-day power outage? I wouldn't go to no extremes just yet... just keep checking back and hopefully their will be some consensus soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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