Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

[Orangeburgwx]

Yesh

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[wncsnow]

Delayed, delayed, delayed. The longer the cold air hangs out elsewhere, the more "stale" it becomes. I highly doubt we get any below zero readings and possibly no single digits except for high mountains. 

[griteater]

Big CAD setup on Euro Mon night into Tues. Ice down to Macon and Orangeburg. Retreats north but upstate stays below freezing full storm 

[Grayman]

1 minute ago, griteater said:

Big CAD setup on Euro Mon night into Tues. Ice down to Macon and Orangeburg. Retreats north but upstate stays below freezing full storm 

That’s pretty big Ice storm for most of the board if I’m looking correctly. 

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, griteater said:

Big CAD setup on Euro Mon night into Tues. Ice down to Macon and Orangeburg. Retreats north but upstate stays below freezing full storm 

The cad starts building in on Thursday and doesn’t stop  

[griteater]

1.5+ of Freezing Rain QPF Charlotte to Greensboro to Danville on Euro, but widespread totals 

[Orangeburgwx]

Big CAD setup on Euro Mon night into Tues. Ice down to Macon and Orangeburg. Retreats north but upstate stays below freezing full storm 

Anytime you mention my town it better be rain, sleet, or snow, 05 still haunts me man... 2 weeks with no power infused me with an intense hatred and fear of a mega ice storm

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[buckeyefan1]

[Orangeburgwx]

Holy shit...nearly got the entirety of the tristate area



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[griteater]

Near ‘perfect’ freezing rain setup as the southern wave and retreating TPV in SE Canada were closer together so the high was in ‘perfect’ damming location during the storm with strong cold source. Also, southern wave goes negative tilt and tracks to our northwest so the mid levels warm 

[Orangeburgwx]

Near ‘perfect’ freezing rain setup as the southern wave and retreating TPV in SE Canada were closer together so the high was in ‘perfect’ damming location during the storm with strong cold source. Also, southern wave goes negative tilt and tracks to our northwest so the mid levels warm 

If it stats tilted positive would all the ice flip to snow?

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[Orangeburgwx]

ENS running now fyi

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[griteater]

Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

If it stats tilted positive would all the ice flip to snow?

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It would need some changes to see more snow, but yeah, it would need to track farther south with less neg tilt. The TPV would need to be farther south to accomplish that and suppress the track more 

[griteater]

Probably more sleet compared to freezing rain than shown on Euro in parts of NC and maybe down into upstate, but would have to look at soundings 

[griteater]

Menacing CAD (Monday Night)

[Ji]

1.5+ of Freezing Rain QPF Charlotte to Greensboro to Danville on Euro, but widespread totals 

Congrats bro!

[burrel2]

Check out the 7 day euro ensemble mean! Textbook wedge setup.

[JoshM]

6z GFS has entered the chat

 

[WXNewton]

20 minutes ago, JoshM said:

6z GFS has entered the chat

 

 

[BullCityWx]

My guess is there's no way there's that much zr(geographically speaking). Probably a ton of sleet somewhere.

[weatherlover]

5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

My guess is there's no way there's that much zr(geographically speaking). Probably a ton of sleet somewhere.

Is this for the Thur night/Friday event?

[WXNewton]

4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

My guess is there's no way there's that much zr(geographically speaking). Probably a ton of sleet somewhere.

Lets hope! This could be the big dog, seems like all 3 global models now have the high pressure in a similar position and with moisture overrunning the CAD. In the past it seems like the euro latches on to these bigger storms first and now we are seeing some agreement on timing, temps and moisture.

[BullCityWx]

2 minutes ago, weatherlover said:

Is this for the Thur night/Friday event?

No. Thursday and Friday likely limited to north of 40 and even then maybe further north.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 hour ago, WXNewton said:

 

No way

[tarheelwx]

 

Here's a link for GSO cobb data from the 06z GFS.  It shows sleet in GSO for the big one through hour 180 which is where the data stops.  

https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kgso 

 

StnID: kgso    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Average Hourly Sounding: NO

 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
210209/0700Z   1  17004KT  39.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210209/0800Z   2  22003KT  40.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210209/0900Z   3  26004KT  40.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210209/1000Z   4  27003KT  40.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210209/1100Z   5  VRB00KT  40.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210209/1200Z   6  13003KT  40.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210209/1300Z   7  VRB01KT  41.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210209/1400Z   8  VRB02KT  43.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210209/1500Z   9  VRB01KT  45.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210209/1600Z  10  VRB02KT  47.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210209/1700Z  11  VRB02KT  49.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210209/1800Z  12  23005KT  54.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210209/1900Z  13  26006KT  57.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210209/2000Z  14  25006KT  57.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210209/2100Z  15  26005KT  57.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210209/2200Z  16  25003KT  55.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210209/2300Z  17  VRB02KT  49.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/0000Z  18  VRB02KT  48.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210210/0100Z  19  VRB02KT  47.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/0200Z  20  VRB02KT  47.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/0300Z  21  30003KT  46.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/0400Z  22  36004KT  46.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/0500Z  23  02005KT  47.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/0600Z  24  03005KT  47.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210210/0700Z  25  04004KT  44.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/0800Z  26  04005KT  44.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/0900Z  27  05004KT  43.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/1000Z  28  05005KT  44.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/1100Z  29  05006KT  44.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/1200Z  30  05007KT  42.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210210/1300Z  31  05007KT  41.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/1400Z  32  06006KT  40.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/1500Z  33  06006KT  40.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/1600Z  34  06006KT  40.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/1700Z  35  06005KT  40.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210210/1800Z  36  05005KT  39.8F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210210/1900Z  37  06005KT  39.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|  0
210210/2000Z  38  08005KT  40.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|  0
210210/2100Z  39  09005KT  42.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|  0
210210/2200Z  40  09004KT  41.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|  0
210210/2300Z  41  10004KT  40.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|  0
210211/0000Z  42  10004KT  40.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/0100Z  43  11005KT  39.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/0200Z  44  11004KT  39.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/0300Z  45  11004KT  39.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/0400Z  46  12003KT  39.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/0500Z  47  13003KT  39.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/0600Z  48  13003KT  40.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/0700Z  49  VRB02KT  40.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/0800Z  50  VRB02KT  40.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/0900Z  51  18003KT  40.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/1000Z  52  18003KT  41.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/1100Z  53  18003KT  40.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/1200Z  54  VRB02KT  39.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/1300Z  55  VRB01KT  41.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/1400Z  56  VRB02KT  45.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/1500Z  57  VRB02KT  47.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/1600Z  58  VRB02KT  49.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/1700Z  59  VRB02KT  51.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/1800Z  60  VRB01KT  51.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/1900Z  61  07004KT  51.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/2000Z  62  09003KT  50.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/2100Z  63  06006KT  49.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210211/2200Z  64  07009KT  45.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04    0|  0|100
210211/2300Z  65  05010KT  42.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13    0|  0|100
210212/0000Z  66  05009KT  41.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.139    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210212/0100Z  67  05010KT  37.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.143    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41    0|  0|100
210212/0200Z  68  04010KT  36.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.139    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55    0|  0|100
210212/0300Z  69  05010KT  35.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65    0|  0|100
210212/0400Z  70  05009KT  35.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.078    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73    0|  0|100
210212/0500Z  71  04008KT  35.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78    0|  0|100
210212/0600Z  72  07010KT  35.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.85    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210212/0700Z  73  05009KT  35.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89    0|  0|100
210212/0800Z  74  03009KT  35.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96    0|  0|100
210212/0900Z  75  06009KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01    0|  0|100
210212/1000Z  76  02010KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.13    0|  0|100
210212/1100Z  77  03009KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.16    0|  0|100
210212/1200Z  78  04009KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.18    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210212/1300Z  79  03011KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 1.20    0|  0|100
210212/1400Z  80  03009KT  30.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.015    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 1.22    0|  0|100
210212/1500Z  81  03009KT  31.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 1.22    0|  0|  0
210212/1600Z  82  03008KT  32.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 1.22    0|  0|  0
210212/1700Z  83  04008KT  35.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 1.22    0|  0|  0
210212/1800Z  84  04008KT  38.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 1.22    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210212/1900Z  85  03008KT  40.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 1.22    0|  0|  0
210212/2000Z  86  04007KT  40.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 1.22    0|  0|  0
210212/2100Z  87  04007KT  39.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210212/2200Z  88  04007KT  38.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210212/2300Z  89  04007KT  36.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210213/0000Z  90  04008KT  36.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210213/0100Z  91  04009KT  35.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210213/0200Z  92  05009KT  35.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210213/0300Z  93  05009KT  34.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210213/0400Z  94  05009KT  33.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210213/0500Z  95  06010KT  32.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210213/0600Z  96  06009KT  32.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210213/0700Z  97  05009KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|100
210213/0800Z  98  05010KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.018    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.03    0|  0|100
210213/0900Z  99  05009KT  30.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.048    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.08    0|  0|100
210213/1000Z 100  05009KT  29.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.035    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.11    0|  0|100
210213/1100Z 101  04009KT  29.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.13    0|  0|100
210213/1200Z 102  04010KT  28.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.031    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.16    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210213/1300Z 103  04010KT  27.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.015    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.18    0|  0|100
210213/1400Z 104  04009KT  27.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.19    0|  0|100
210213/1500Z 105  04009KT  27.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.20    0|  0|100
210213/1600Z 106  04009KT  27.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.22    0|  0|100
210213/1700Z 107  04009KT  27.4F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.22    0|  0|100
210213/1800Z 108  04008KT  27.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.22    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210213/1900Z 109  04009KT  29.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.22    0|  0|  0
210213/2000Z 110  03008KT  28.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.22    0|  0|  0
210213/2100Z 111  06009KT  28.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.22    0|  0|  0
210213/2200Z 112  05009KT  28.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.22    0|  0|  0
210213/2300Z 113  03007KT  28.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.22    0|  0|  0
210214/0000Z 114  04008KT  27.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210214/0100Z 115  03008KT  27.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210214/0200Z 116  04006KT  27.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210214/0300Z 117  04007KT  27.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210214/0400Z 118  05010KT  28.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.055    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.06    0|  0|100
210214/0500Z 119  05008KT  29.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.070    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.13    0|  0|100
210214/0600Z 120  04005KT  31.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.037    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.16    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210214/0900Z 123  02007KT  31.2F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.078    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.24    0|  0|100
210214/1200Z 126  03005KT  32.8F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.25    0|  0|100
210214/1500Z 129  VRB01KT  37.3F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.26    0|  0|100
210214/1800Z 132  24006KT  44.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.26    0|  0|  0
210214/2100Z 135  26008KT  48.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.26    0|  0|  0
210215/0000Z 138  30005KT  42.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.26    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210215/0300Z 141  31009KT  35.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.26    0|  0|  0
210215/0600Z 144  33007KT  27.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.26    0|  0|  0
210215/0900Z 147  01003KT  24.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.26    0|  0|  0
210215/1200Z 150  04004KT  22.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210215/1500Z 153  02005KT  29.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210215/1800Z 156  03004KT  37.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210215/2100Z 159  06004KT  38.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210216/0000Z 162  07007KT  30.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210216/0300Z 165  04005KT  30.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
210216/0600Z 168  04008KT  30.1F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.019    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.02    0|  0|100
210216/0900Z 171  05009KT  26.9F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.03    0| 27| 73
210216/1200Z 174  04010KT  22.9F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 0.078    0:1|  0.0|| 0.16|| 0.03|| 0.11    0|100|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210216/1500Z 177  06011KT  20.9F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.37|| 0.00|| 0.184    0:1|  0.0|| 0.53|| 0.03|| 0.29    0| 99|  1
210216/1800Z 180  03010KT  22.7F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.33|| 0.00|| 0.163    0:1|  0.0|| 0.86|| 0.03|| 0.45    0|100|  0
============================================================================================================================

[Buddy1987]

Holy crap! That’s like a late 90s weather setup there. I remember living up north and the the power trucks headed toward the Carolinas when the ice storms would roll through. Pretty much every model I’ve seen depicts a significant event for a majority of the weather board in that time frame. I don’t think I will personally get over invested until Thursday or Friday just because the models have been so flippy floppy as of late. 

[BullCityWx]

That Saturday setup is gonna be sneaky. Temps here in the upper 20s with .2 qpf should lend itself to some decent accrual. 

[kvegas-wx]

This could end up being a multi-day ice on ice event for some.  Very little melting going on. Tenths upon tenths of zr.  This long duration event would easily rival the tree damage I experienced back in 2002.  Pray for sleet but go ahead and buy your gennie now if you ever wanted one. This is U..G..L..Y! 

[buckeyefan1]

8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

That Saturday setup is gonna be sneaky. Temps here in the upper 20s with .2 qpf should lend itself to some decent accrual. 

06gfs

[BullCityWx]

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

06gfs