Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Some interesting run trends today, definitely have to watch the next few days to see what happens. The trend this year has been for the cold to stay West of the apps, and many of the runs continue to show the cold having difficulty making it east of the mtns. Maybe it makes it this time but I would not be surprised to see marginal cold again for most. Looks like we should be paying attention for the next 10 to 15 days though for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 0z NAM going back to its other solutions. Ticking back north unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z NAM going back to its other solutions. Ticking back north unfortunately Yep just noticed that too, it's difficult to watch the models literally bounce around 10-14 degrees different in one or two runs. This run had a low pressure off the coast that wasn't on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Some interesting run trends today, definitely have to watch the next few days to see what happens. The trend this year has been for the cold to stay West of the apps, and many of the runs continue to show the cold having difficulty making it east of the mtns. Maybe it makes it this time but I would not be surprised to see marginal cold again for most. Looks like we should be paying attention for the next 10 to 15 days though for sure. Not disagreeing, I'm simply pointing out (while I sit here in Cincy watching it puke snow outside) that starting tomorrow the high temps here wont go ABOVE 25° until the middle to end of next week. This isnt run of the mill transient cold. This has staying power. And we would need a monster SER to block and/or moderate this airmass. I like our chances over the next 10 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: How’d the 18z euro look at 144hrs in regards to next weeks storm? EPS Mean trend loop of last 6 runs (ending at hr144 from 18z run). Wave in SW is gaining in amplitude. Sharpening ridge in SW Canada helps to strengthen the high over Iowa. TPV a little slower to escape over SE Canada. The high and the cold air mass with it favor a winter storm, but if we want more sleet/snow and less freezing rain, I would want to see a more modest amplitude wave over the SW (or have it positioned farther south) and the TPV over SE Canada nudging farther south down into NY/PA here at 144. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 16 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Not disagreeing, I'm simply pointing out (while I sit here in Cincy watching it puke snow outside) that starting tomorrow the high temps here wont go ABOVE 25° until the middle to end of next week. This isnt run of the mill transient cold. This has staying power. And we would need a monster SER to block and/or moderate this airmass. I like our chances over the next 10 days. Oh, I wasn't disputing you or anything in particular. Really just thinking out loud, not that I know anything. I would honestly like to see some sustained cold, even if it doesn't deliver snow. I've only seen one real cold front this year; the one around Christmas, and that only lasted a couple of days. Everything else has either been seasonable or just below. Despite the persistent -NAO Aand muted SER we have just struggled at getting any real cold across the apps or south of northern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Looks like 00Z RGEM has much better CAD setting up at hr 51. 00z RGEM and 00z NAM still pretty far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 0z RGEM is a significant Winter Storm taken verbatim for VA... a sleet storm for southern VA , extreme N NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Can someone post the sleet map of the 0z RGEM? That looks like 1-2" of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Freezing Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 23 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Freezing Rain Smush that ice south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 0z ICON has a temp IMBY of 20 degrees on Tuesday at 1PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Raging ice storm on the icon... similar to the euro but not as amped and... colder??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Raging ice storm on the icon... similar to the euro but not as amped and... colder??? Looked to me like it would flip to snow at 180ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Wedge induced Freezing rain all way in to Florida on the icon, never seen that before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Wedge induced Freezing rain all way in to Florida on the icon, never seen that beforeWhat the hell?!Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hard to buy those temps but even if they are 5-7 degrees warmer it's still really chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Looked to me like it would flip to snow at 180ish. Yeah this is a insane panel.....with that low strength and placement you wouldnt think the warm nose is that strong.....its showing 23/24 IMBY with the snow/rain line slam back in the mts..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Good grief... someone is about to get rocked on this gfs run, hope it’s us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 00z GFS back to be a little colder for Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Good grief... someone is about to get rocked on this gfs run, hope it’s us Watching that one close, could be a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 This is pretty darn good agreement.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: This is pretty darn good agreement.... 540 lines in far different places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Good grief... someone is about to get rocked on this gfs run, hope it’s us Turns out nobody got rocked lol. Don’t think that shortwave shears as hard as the gfs thinks but we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 First take on 0z guidance: Meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Positive trends stabilized. We’ll see what tomorrow brings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GEFS might tell a better story here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Never seen so many Miller A rainstorms in 1 model run for AVL. I'm happy to just seen snow this winter. Always something to be thankful for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 CMC really brings the cold early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, WeatherWeenie87 said: Never seen so many Miller A rainstorms in 1 model run for AVL. I'm happy to just seen snow this winter. Always something to be thankful for. Easy to rain when the cold never makes it east of the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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