HKY_WX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 5:00 PM, HKY_WX said: GFS and EC ensembles are pretty much on top of each other through day 6... For those looking for some positive nuggets. The OP Euro's evolution out west appears pretty unlikely. Additionally it's pretty rare to see a large cold dome like this dislodge and head SE towards the CONUS. Sometimes the mods have difficulty in these situations due to the density of the airmass. Normally they don't just put on the brakes and stop north of the Dakotas. Checkout the Euro 2m surface trend below. This includes the last several runs of 0z/12z.... Notice the trend of the cold temps at the sfc bleeding towards the south over the central/eastern US. This is a classic old school model bias. It's due to the model physics missing the true density of the cold air at the surface in the long range. This likely isn't the end of the trend either... 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 No real trend on the 18z RGEM. I'd say less of a winter storm over northern NC that run. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, tarheelwx said: No real trend on the 18z RGEM. I'd say less of a winter storm over northern NC that run. TW Not really just more of a sleet storm than ZR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 18z ICON also with ICE Thursday night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Observations from today: 1) a light to moderate icing event is becoming more likely Thursday night into Friday mainly from favored CAD regions northward 2) a more substantial storm is possible late weekend/early next week. Could be more widespread Likely to be another mixed bag event 3) it is becoming more likely arctic air will move in for the second half of the weekend through early next week but timing differences remain 4) several shots at precipitation next week could lead to more threats down the road, but these will be almost impossible to iron out until the arrival of the arctic air mass is determined 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Ice ice babySent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 18z icon at 120hrs is further south and east with the cold push/vortex compared to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 19 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: No real trend on the 18z RGEM. I'd say less of a winter storm over northern NC that run. TW Less QPF that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 19 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Observations from today: 1) a light to moderate icing event is becoming more likely Thursday night into Friday mainly from favored CAD regions northward 2) a more substantial storm is possible late weekend/early next week. Could be more widespread Likely to be another mixed bag event 3) it is becoming more likely arctic air will move in for the second half of the weekend through early next week but timing differences remain 4) several shots at precipitation next week could lead to more threats down the road, but these will be almost impossible to iron out until the arrival of the arctic air mass is determined I think the bolded is key with it becoming more evident we're going to have the HP in a good spot from Thursday - Tuesday... The main driver will be timing the STJ impulses that are going to come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 18Z Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 GFS was to warm. We toss 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 GFS barely showed any CAD. I want to see ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The Euro, ICON, GEM, NAM, RGEM all show Friday. GFS is a clown show. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The Euro, ICON, GEM, NAM, RGEM all show Friday. GFS is a clown show. GFS is warm for both systems but still brings the cold and a significant storm midweek. We’ll see if it joins the bandwagon with the Thursday/Friday system or stays on its island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 GEFS too warm, doesn't punch the cold until TuesdaySent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: GFS is warm for both systems but still brings the cold and a significant storm midweek. We’ll see if it joins the bandwagon with the Thursday/Friday system or stays on its island I just don’t believe the cold will make it s east of Atlanta. I also do not believe N Ga will see any of the Arctic cold. It will get cold, it is February. But I think the cold will seep Into central mid part of Nation southward and be pushed N East. We in SEast Ga and the state of Florida will remain normal or above normal. Days are already getting longer. The season is heading to spring here in the south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 43 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said: I just don’t believe the cold will make it s east of Atlanta. I also do not believe N Ga will see any of the Arctic cold. It will get cold, it is February. But I think the cold will seep Into central mid part of Nation southward and be pushed N East. We in SEast Ga and the state of Florida will remain normal or above normal. Days are already getting longer. The season is heading to spring here in the south What’s your reasoning for this? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Late week is like the junior undercard bouts, while early next week has Mike Tyson vs Buster Douglas potential, with Michael Buffer doing the intros 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 34 minutes ago, RT1980 said: What’s your reasoning for this? Everything is working against the Arctic air continuing in strength and intensity. Days are getting longer and sun angle is changing. The longer it holds back , less chance it will cross the country 1 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Late week is like the junior undercard bouts, while early next week has Mike Tyson vs Buster Douglas potential, with Michael Buffer doing the intros Ha, I remember I was camping with my dad at one of the textile mill campgrounds on LKN that weekend and we recorded the fight on VHS. Boy was I surprised. I tend to agree there especially if we get the full cold push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Looking to the skies said: Everything is working against the Arctic air continuing in strength and intensity. Days are getting longer and sun angle is changing. The longer it holds back , less chance it will cross the country 1 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The control run has a second round of...something on Saturday. It’s either freezing rain or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckfever2 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The control run has a second round of...something on Saturday. It’s either freezing rain or sleet. Can you post that second round that it showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Buckfever2 said: Can you post that second round that it showing Mostly sleet or freezing rain for that QPF. Probably more sleet along and north of 85, freezing rain more prevalent south of 40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckfever2 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 My wife and two kids are supposed to be driving out to Phoenix, leaving out on this Friday from Dallas Georgia.I’m wondering should we postpone that trip, especially with all the uncertainty? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 21 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said: Everything is working against the Arctic air continuing in strength and intensity. Days are getting longer and sun angle is changing. The longer it holds back , less chance it will cross the country And the skies need to heal from the last storm as well? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 How’d the 18z euro look at 144hrs in regards to next weeks storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 27 minutes ago, burrel2 said: How’d the 18z euro look at 144hrs in regards to next weeks storm? No real sign I could decipher on the mean. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 31 minutes ago, Buckfever2 said: My wife and two kids are supposed to be driving out to Phoenix, leaving out on this Friday from Dallas Georgia.I’m wondering should we postpone that trip, especially with all the uncertainty? I think you’re fine there. If you were up here, I’d be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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