BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I feel like we are so close to a major winter storm, just can't get that cold air down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: I feel like we are so close to a major winter storm, just can't get that cold air down here! I think we will get it together eventually just won’t know till a few days out with all this model madness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 This is anomalous cold air, even for the dead of winter. The models will have a hard time handling such dense cold air. I expect to see the models trend much colder as move through this week. I think the models have trended colder in the 3-5 day range for the last 60 days. The problem until now has been that there's been little cold air to work with. The cold air coming now will be a whole different animal. Tapping regions with dew points in the teens (since back in early December) is totally different than tapping regions with dew points below zero. I think if nothing else, the dense nature of the cold air will lead to alot of ice, and not just in CAD areas. TW 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 42 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Wouldn't take much adjustment to make that map look a little better. I think this time frame will trend colder for sure so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Wouldn't take much adjustment to make that map look a little better. I think this time frame will trend colder for sure so we shall see. You would think with what looks like a good High Pressure to the North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6z EPS ticked about 2 degrees warmer at hr 144 compared to 150 at 0zSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Wouldn't take much adjustment to make that map look a little better. I think this time frame will trend colder for sure so we shall see. 22 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: You would think with what looks like a good High Pressure to the North? 1034 is just barely workable. Placement would have to be perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 1034 is just barely workable. Placement would have to be perfect 1034 is more than enough for freezing rain. I’ve seen significant events with weaker highs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 FWIW , the ICON is an ICE Storm for the CAD areas Friday/Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: 1034 is more than enough for freezing rain. I’ve seen significant events with weaker highs. Totally agree here. I've seen 1020 get it done before (but not by much). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Totally agree here. I've seen 1020 get it done before (but not by much). TW For the triangle (Raleigh) area we need ever mb we can get as we’re not a favored CAD location. It was more of an imby post but agreed it’s enough to work if placement is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, tarheelwx said: Totally agree here. I've seen 1020 get it done before (but not by much). TW Yeah i think 1034 can get it done, especially if it would happen to drop on in to Western NY or Western PA around that time. I like the look of the reinforcing highs building into the Midwest as well. Only time will tell but I could definitely see a few more degrees as the models tend to struggle with this dense air mass and should correct more as we get into tomorrow and Wednesday. I really like the Sun-Tuesday timeframe, I believe we could see some major CAD sinking exceptionally far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: 1034 is more than enough for freezing rain. I’ve seen significant events with weaker highs. Indeed......sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: For the triangle (Raleigh) area we need ever mb we can get as we’re not a favored CAD location. It was more of an imby post but agreed it’s enough to work if placement is correct Yes, for us (greater Raleigh area), you need a strong High or super dry air at the onset. Geographically we are at the eastern extent of most of your CAD scenarios (with freezing temps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I think strength of hp can help offset not being in an ideal location, and location can help offset not having a nice strong hp. A really strong high in the ideal position makes for great memories. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 12z GFS trended colder for CAD areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 hour ago, tarheelwx said: This is anomalous cold air, even for the dead of winter. The models will have a hard time handling such dense cold air. I expect to see the models trend much colder as move through this week. I think the models have trended colder in the 3-5 day range for the last 60 days. The problem until now has been that there's been little cold air to work with. The cold air coming now will be a whole different animal. Tapping regions with dew points in the teens (since back in early December) is totally different than tapping regions with dew points below zero. I think if nothing else, the dense nature of the cold air will lead to alot of ice, and not just in CAD areas. TW Agreed 100%. The Cincinnati forecast has been also trending colder all week this week and the local tv met last night was even talking about the cold press into the south. I suppose it's possible the trajectory takes it into TX/LA instead of the SE, but the cold pool is definitely there. Highs in the teens here by late week, single digit lows. I'll get my fill of snow up here this week as we have it every day in the forecast at present. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: FWIW , the ICON is an ICE Storm for the CAD areas Friday/Saturday Yes, just now looked at that. ICON seemed to do really well with the weekend storm, maybe it's on to something. It actually dropped temps in the Catawba Valley area about 4-5 degrees from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I am in Metter Ga. The last big storm here I know of was Feb 11, 1973. Any hope to see any winter precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Amazing trends! Classic CAD and Miller A! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 RGEM is a huge sleet storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Looking to the skies said: I am in Metter Ga. The last big storm here I know of was Feb 11, 1973. Any hope to see any winter precip? At your location it would take some kind of anomalous system to make that happen. Always possible but I would not bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: RGEM is a huge sleet storm. Actually wasnt far away for the border counties with VA to being all snow. Edited to show snow at Roxboro, Yanceyville, Reidsville in the last frame: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Actually wasnt far away for the border counties with VA to being all snow. What is taking place? Is the High trending stronger or is the storm taking a more southern track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: What is taking place? Is the High trending stronger or is the storm taking a more southern track? Well, you've got a decently strong high pressure(1036MB) centered over snow covered land plus it's close to some very cold air. It's a pretty classic look. I could see this trending colder and colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: RGEM is a huge sleet storm. Maybe short-range models will start to sniff out this dense air mass and pickup on the potential faster than the globals will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, WXNewton said: Maybe short-range models will start to sniff out this dense air mass and pickup on the potential faster than the globals will. Absolutely. I'm surprised the NAM hasnt yet. This sort of scenario is where the GEM shines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Well, you've got a pretty strong high pressure(1038MB) centered over snow covered land plus it's close to some very cold air. It's a pretty classic look. Also like the deep snow pack to the north, I said yesterday that might really help us in the long run. I mean it's been a while since we've had a decent high pressure building in over deep snow pack. Last good CAD I remember over really good snowpack was back in Jan 22 2016, seems like Catawba County was in the low 20s most of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Definitely the signal for a mixed precip event Friday. These CAD storms tend to trend colder as time goes on. Definitely getting interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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